Prelude To War: World War 3 (Steve Case Thriller Book 1)

by Phillip Strang

  ‘Fred,’ Rusty said, ‘your optimism is appreciated, but how have you deduced the reaction of the Russians? How do you understand the manner in which they will react to a given scenario?’

  ‘We believe that we have a good understanding based on their historical behaviour.’

  Archie, Chuck, and Howard left the meeting early; their focus was on the Taliban. The Northern border required a different expertise. Archie was satisfied that there was serious consideration of his proposal. He knew that religious extremism unchecked could not be allowed to continue. It would eat through susceptible peoples, susceptible countries, susceptible cultures like a pariah.

  Chapter 18

  Archie Smyth still had further questions for Oliver Young. He was also interested to see if he would approve of his solution, ‘Can we discuss? Just the two of us.’

  ‘Fine, what do you need to know?’ responded Oliver.

  ‘You’re aware of my plan. I realise it is controversial. I wanted to see if we could agree.’

  ‘I made it clear earlier,’ Oliver replied. ‘I believe that going into the country is flawed. There will never be a moderate Taliban, and even if there was, they could not be trusted. Any organisation which has a dogmatic religious ideology as its primary tenet must be suspect. And there is your view, that we should kill them all. Neither sit easily with me.'

  ‘That is a pessimistic view,’ Archie said.

  ‘It is not pessimistic. They are a savage group of people, largely ignorant, and easily swayed by the religious hotheads.’

  ‘I remember that you were in agreement in the early days of the think tank. You seemed to agree with the marginalisation of the Taliban, the moderating of their leadership.’

  ‘I did believe it was possible. Maybe I was just drawn into the mood at the time, the optimism, the idealism of what we were discussing. Since then, I have had time to reflect.

  ‘How can a moderate leadership control the organisation? You remember, what I told you before, of how they dealt with the Hazara in Mazar-i-Sharif when they took it in 1998. They rounded up five thousand men and boys, they were Shia, and to the Taliban non-believers. They cut the throats of all of them. Nobody can control people who are willing to commit such atrocities.’

  ‘I remember, but wasn’t this a reprisal for the slaying of three thousand Taliban prisoners by an Uzbek General the previous year.’

  ‘That is what the Taliban said. If that was the case, why didn’t they target the Uzbeks? Why choose the Hazara? It was religious and political opportunism by the Taliban.’

  ‘I must agree. I have never seen how a moderate Taliban could be considered. However, I do still believe that it is possible to enter the country regardless of the situation.’

  Oliver added, ‘A year after the massacre of the Hazara, they ethnically cleansed the Shomali Plain to the North of Kabul. A hundred and forty thousand Tajiki’s were displaced, a rich farming area turned into a wasteland. They did not regard the Tajiki’s as non-believers. It was because they were not avid supporters of the Taliban.’

  It was clear to Archie; his plan was the only solution.

  Oliver may not understand, at least for the present. ‘Your solution is violent. I cannot condone violence as a means to an end. It may be that others will disagree with me, and I realised that we were never going to enter, even with the best intentions and expect to be welcomed with open arms. In the history of the country, no one has entered the country for purely altruistic reasons. They always wanted something, and force was always used to achieve that aim. I will assist you in all that you require of me, but please do not expect me to approve of your solution.’

  ‘Thank you. I have to admit that in all the years, and all the countries that I have had involvement with, I’ve never seen a more dangerous group. They appear devoid of compromise or compassion, and as long as they impact on the country, there can be no true progress. They must be removed.’

  Oliver still wanted to expound his point of view. ‘Boko Haram in Northern Nigeria and Al Qaeda are similar. The latter is not so significant today. I would regard both of them as dangerous and uncompromising as the Taliban, and no one has found a solution to them.’

  Could my Taliban solution be applied to religious extremists in other parts of the World, thought Archie.

  Archie saw that these groups, devoid of any ounce of humility could only be eliminated, killed. It was the most satisfactory conclusion for the peoples they had suppressed, terrorised, and killed, the majority who did not deserve that fate.

  ‘I appreciate your honesty,’ Archie said to Oliver. ‘I would never condone violence as a solution, but sometimes it is necessary to commit such acts if they will protect more than are targeted. I am not a violent person. My nature is, to the contrary, peaceful and placid.

  ‘Let me place a hypothetical question. If the five thousand Hazara in Mazar that we spoke about could have been saved by the elimination of a thousand Taliban, what would your answer be?’ Archie asked.

  ‘I would agree to the thousand Taliban, but how do you know before the event that those five thousand were doomed?’

  ‘Of course, you do not, and there is the dilemma. If a resolution to the Taliban will ensure bringing Afghanistan out of the desperation and poverty that it is currently embroiled in, what would be your answer?’

  ‘It is not an easy question. If it was clearly of great benefit at relatively low cost, then I may well agree. It is not a command I would be capable of giving, and I would not want to know the details of any action that may occur.’

  ‘I appreciate your honesty. I am hopeful that others may adopt a pragmatic view. I can see the validity in what we are trying to achieve. I will not allow it to fail. It is for others, who maintain a Christian and charitable viewpoint, to decide if the cost of entry that I propose is justified in the result.

  ‘I base my actions on many years of experience. Afghanistan is not the first place that has committed atrocities in the name of religion, tribe, or politics. I have witnessed a few, and I have formed a view that would to others seem extreme. To me, it is generous and serves the greater good.’ Archie realised this would be the first time that a Western country had ever committed such an activity. He knew they would accept it eventually and it would not cause him sleepless nights. He was not advocating an action based on hatred or intolerance and it had nothing to do with religious beliefs. It was purely a necessary and unavoidable action that needed to be taken. It was to Archie, charitable.

  ***

  ‘What do you intend to do after we conclude?’ Oliver attempted to change the subject. ‘You indicated retirement some time ago.’

  ‘I am going to my cottage with its thatched roof down in the Woodford Valley, near Salisbury in England. It is only five kilometres from Stonehenge, but it will feel a million miles from what we are doing here. I’ll grow vegetables, tend the garden, and wander down to the Wheatsheaf Inn at the end of the day for a pint of its best beer and a pub meal.

  ‘I’ve no intention of indulging in nostalgia or talking about my lifetime experiences. I will just be a person who talks about gardening. If the conversation in the pub turns to World events, activities and places that I have been to, I will just smile inwardly and say nothing. Meaningful discussions invariably become heated. There is always someone who will disagree vehemently with me. It will be a peaceful and agreeable conclusion to a life full of adventure and challenge.’

  ‘It sounds ideal.’

  ‘It is. I would like to return to our discussion on the Taliban. What numbers do they have?’

  ‘It is difficult to confirm, but it would be more than thirty-six thousand, and at least twenty to forty per cent would be Pakistan nationals.’ This is aligned with the information that Archie was receiving from Steve in Kabul.

  There may also be some in Uzbekistan.

  ‘Uzbekistan,’ queried Archie. ‘You’ve mentioned it before. What do we know about the Taliban there?’

  I would have a
ssumed that the Warlords would be able to keep them under control, but that is apparently not the case.’

  They are little more than an irritation at the present moment in the north, although as they reassert themselves in the south, it is bound to have an effect on them, they will only become stronger. They have influence in all parts of the country to some degree. A former Guantanamo inmate is now leading a group to the east of Herat.’

  ‘What about Waziristan? What is its significance?’ Archie enquired.

  ‘Waziristan is about three hundred kilometres South West of the Pakistan capital, or to give it its Taliban assigned title, “The Islamic Emirate of Waziristan.” It is an autonomous region set up under the auspices of the Pakistan government. They had no real choice but to let it occur, the Pakistani Army could not hold the area. There was no option other than to hand it over to the Taliban.

  ‘It is primarily Tehrik-e-Taliban which is aimed at insurgency in Pakistan. Numbers are believed to be around thirty-five thousand, and the Afghan Taliban has easy access. Incursions into Afghanistan occur from there.

  ‘Remember, Bin Laden was discovered in Abbottabad, only sixty kilometres from Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, and very close to where their nuclear weapons are stored. It would be foolish to believe that some persons in the Pakistan authorities did not know who had been living there for the last six years.

  ‘If we enter Afghanistan for whatever reason, we must accept that a proportion of the Pakistan Taliban will enter Afghanistan to fight alongside their brothers over the border. As you can see the numbers are becoming large. We still have the Taliban in Quetta over the border from Kandahar to discuss.

  ‘If the Taliban mobilise in numbers then it can be expected they will flow over from Quetta to Kandahar. The religious schools inflame their young and easily impressionable youths to martyrdom.’

  ‘What part will Pakistan play if we enter the country?’ Archie enquired.

  He had most of the answers to the questions that he was posing. He just wanted to corroborate with Oliver in case he had missed something obvious.

  ‘We know they assisted the Taliban when they took Kabul, and there is no reason to believe that they will not again, if they feel it is their regional interests.

  ‘So, we need to marginalise Pakistan,’ Archie said, ‘If, we wish to deal with the Taliban in a significant manner.’

  ‘That is clear. We cannot have another country interfering.’

  Archie could see that the Pakistan military and government would need to be halted in any moves contrary to his Taliban solution. That could only be achieved through the political involvement of the American government. It was another component that needed to be taken into consideration. It was good that he had spent this time with Oliver.

  He reflected on how such a group of people could come to have beliefs so extreme. He had known many Muslims, some were friends, and they were fine. Sure, they took their religion seriously, but they did not attempt to impose or force other peoples to accept their views, and they were not advocating violence. To the contrary, they were always extremely passive.

  ‘I don’t fully understand why they are so extreme,’ Archie asked.

  ‘Islam is not. The Taliban are the result of an Islamic revivalist movement, that had its origin with Islamic scholars in India as a reaction to British colonialism, one hundred and fifty years ago. As with all these movements, they either wither away or become distorted, more extreme. Clearly, in the case of the Taliban, it became more extreme.

  ‘The intelligentsia embrace it as a philosophy. The majority of the disenfranchised, uneducated, easily controlled, accept it as Islam. They will accept what it preached to them; they have no way of understanding or questioning. There is no way it can be stopped without controlling the madrassas, the religious schools that teach this extremist view.’

  ‘They need to be stopped, you realise that?’ Archie replied.

  ‘Your method is not the solution that I would choose,’ Oliver commented. ‘Anti-progressive, devoid of compassion they may be, but your solution, never.’

  ‘You are idealistic.’ Archie said. He knew that Oliver would never be a convert to his solution.

  ‘I will leave the reality to you,’ Oliver conceded.

  Would you concede that it still has the potential to fan out across Asia, and to affect countless millions, driving them into a new dark age of ignorance?’ Archie gave it one last go to convince Oliver.

  ‘Yes, it may be possible.’

  ‘Is it not better to deal with the situation before that occurs?’

  ‘History will judge your actions, not I. If they are no longer there, then the World will be a better place. I’ll concede that point.’

  ‘Then it will be history. I am convinced that my solution must be implemented.’

  ‘Steve Case,’ Oliver asked casually. ‘is he part of your plan?’

  ‘He is collating intelligence.’ He would have preferred not to have been asked the question, but he saw no reason to lie in his reply.

  ‘What intelligence.’

  ‘We need intelligence in the highest detail. It is vital to know the key players in the country, not only the Taliban, but the Warlords, the politicians, the regional leaders. It is imperative that we have a peaceful country before we endeavour to claim the mines. We need to know who to talk to, who to marginalise.’ Archie purposely omitted, who to eliminate.

  ‘He is doing a great job. We are close to completion on this part of the operation,’ he added.

  ‘And what is the next part?’ Oliver was asking too many questions.

  ‘Formulation of how we approach these persons, and when, and how much we can reveal to them. It is still not clear, and it may be wise if I say no more at this time.’

  ‘Understood,’ Oliver replied, but he suspected there was more.

  Archie, still not sure of Oliver’s reaction, preferred to end the conversation.

  ‘You realise the Warlords cannot be trusted,’ Oliver said, aiming to keep the conversation going. ‘Any deal that you make with them will be broken at the first opportunity if it suits them.’

  ‘That is why I am ensuring we have the best intelligence. If they attempt to renege or act contrary to any agreement we make with them, it is imperative that they know full well the consequence of that action.’

  ‘You are intimating violence.’ Oliver responded with a degree of alarm.

  ‘Not necessarily. We are able to remove their wealth, destroy their houses, and reduce their private armies’ ability to wage war.’

  ‘I am not sure I like the sound of that.’

  ‘I should say that is what we will threaten. We really want their armies intact; they are to be an integral part in holding back the Russian military.’

  ‘If you indulge in fighting with their private armies, then you will lose. We do not have a military in the country to fight,’ Oliver said.

  ‘I realise that. The most we can do is to use drones to go in with missiles, but it is a last resort. The Warlords, especially in the north, are critical to our ultimate success. I don’t believe we will have too many issues. Once Russia is threatening, and they will threaten soon enough, their focus will be there. They dislike them with a vengeance.’

  With the very best people in New York taking all the inputs, formulating the scenarios, the eliminations of the Taliban, Archie saw that more focus was required in reference to the Warlords. Oliver was correct; they were not to be trusted. They would offer assistance, give statements of friendship; “we are with you all the way in your aim to assist the people of Afghanistan,” and then behind closed doors be instructing underlings to foment dissent. They would then return and offer to come in to resolve, invariably for more money. He understood them well enough. He would add them to the list if they became too troublesome.

  Could Pakistan be trusted, could the Warlords, the central government? Could anyone be trusted? Archie knew the answer to those questions. As with all things A
fghani, it was bound to get difficult.

  With time and education, the people in Afghanistan would reject the fundamentalists, and isolate the Warlords, if they could see that a centralised government was honest, competent and accountable. That was not to be for some time, though.

  Archie knew what he had to do, and he would execute and follow through to completion. He was just aiming to remove a section of society who had been holding millions to ransom, and possible future actions could bring untold horrors onto the world. If they got hold of the nuclear weapons in Northern Pakistan, the consequences were too unpleasant to imagine. They would use them; there was no question with this. He had to remove the Taliban.

  Chapter 19

  The first meeting of the Taliban solution group and Archie was in the chair. ‘Kandahar will fall soon. It is clear the Afghan army will not hold out much longer, and the U.S. military is holding to their word, they will not intervene. It may be to our advantage. The Taliban leadership which has stayed concealed for many years will probably relocate there. No doubt, they will want to announce to their followers that the Taliban is resurgent. If they are all in one place, it will be easier to deal with them.

  ‘Initially, I had hoped to eliminate them before they took Kandahar, but that is now not possible. The plan to eliminate them as a functioning entity is not totally ready, and the authority to remove will not be given until it is clear to our leaders in Washington that there is no alternative.

  ‘Steve, I believe we should outline what is required of you, and detail my plan for the Taliban.’

  ‘It would be best if you clearly state what you have in mind. Your plan is clear, you want to kill them,’ Steve replied.

  ‘I want you in Kabul. I want you to coordinate from there.’

  ‘You want me to coordinate mass assassinations while sitting in the one place that they can find me easily.’ Steve knew the answer. He just wanted Archie to restate.