Non-Obvious 2019- How To Predict Trends and Win The Future

by Rohit Bhargava

  Latif, who is blind, explains that mistaking the two products is a constant challenge for blind people and those who can’t see well. P&G created new bottles to help disabled people live as independently as possible, and the new design was rolled out on selected bottles in January 2019. But as Latif explained to Quartz, they didn’t do it out of charity, but rather as a business strategy. “We realized we had a massive opportunity,” she said. “There are 1.3 billion people with disabilities in the world…and we are not understanding their needs.”[62]

  Other companies are on a similar quest to appeal to customers previously ignored in the design process.

  Recently, IKEA launched a special line of kitchen wares designed for people with limited mobility, such as pregnant women, the elderly, and people who have undergone surgery. Named Omtanksam (after the Swedish word for “considerate”), the offering includes anti-slip dishware and easy-to-grip cutlery.

  In the U.K., the department store Marks and Spencer announced a new line of clothing for children with disabilities. Their wide range of new apparel include t-shirts with Velcro fasteners on the back and dresses and shirts designed to hide feeding tubes and casts.

  And Gillete released the Treo Razer, specially designed for caregivers who need to shave others who no longer can do it for themselves. The design features a handle that makes using the razor feel like gliding a paintbrush. The handle is flexible to maximize control, and the shaving gel is built right into the handle.

  Each of these innovative products was designed with empathy and caring for those whose needs had not been considered before. In the process, the companies responsible for them created new categories of products (and revenue) for themselves, as well as a powerful story that generates predictably positive publicity.

  Holographic Companionship

  For decades now, Japan has been grappling with a serious social problem: young people are dating and marrying less and less, leading to low birth rates, an aging population, and the prevailing loneliness of many young Japanese salarymen who live alone. In Chapter 6, I discussed this group, known as the hikikomori, in more detail.

  In an effort to respond to this social shift, a Japanese company called Gatebox released an AI-powered “Holographic Wife” that offers lonely young Japanese salarymen companionship at home. Standing about 8 inches tall inside a glass box, the holographic image is based on an anime character. This holographic wife will text messages asking their husbands how their day is going, thank them at the end of the day, and even watch TV with them. It is now available for sale for about $1,300 USD plus a monthly subscription fee.

  The Gatebox “holographic wife”

  The loneliness that results in a need for this type of product is not just growing in Japan, either. In an article in the Harvard Business Review, former Surgeon General of the United States Vivek Murthy declared that we are experiencing a “loneliness epidemic,” with 40 percent of Americans reporting that they feel lonely.[63] As technology moves beyond utility to offer other types of support, like companionship and empathic interactions to respond to our emotional needs, our relationship with this tech is bound to evolve. The companies who provide this type of support, like Gatebox, stand to profit. In fact, the concept of a “holographic wife” may just be evidence of an entirely new industry focused on helping people of all ages and genders deal with the crippling reality of loneliness.

  Caring for Seniors with Empathy

  The spiral of loneliness often intersects with getting older, as well. As a result, the challenge of providing care to our aging population with empathy is increasingly the focus of the business models and service innovations we are seeing among the companies that advise the industry as a whole.

  Unlike many eldercare facilities, Boulevard Adult Day Care of Flushing, a company that runs several care centers in Queens, New York, specifically customizes their programs—from the food they serve to the décor of their facilities—to their clients’ cultural backgrounds. One of their centers, for example, is catered to people who grew up in India, while another is tailored to Hispanic seniors. The centers are thriving, and the people served by this innovation feel greater empathy.

  Why do these centers do so well? In an article for Pacific Standard, Environmental Gerontology professor Jeffrey Rosenfeld explains that the optimal places for people (and particularly immigrants) to grow old tend to remind them of where they are from. The Indian Boulevard program, for example, was created is and run by a 29-year-old Indian woman named Megha Mehta. In India, all of these elderly residents would have lived with family and been cared by their daughters-in-law, so having a director of Mehta’s age and gender running the program makes perfect sense to them.

  This is a cultural bias, Mehta acknowledges. But as the article points out, the elderly immigrants are not at a point in their lives where they are going to change their views on such things. Being understanding and sensitive of their cultural preferences and beliefs helps them thrive in their retirement. “The American idea of the melting pot asks individuals to fuse with a greater whole,” the article concludes, “but an elderly immigrant has lost enough of themselves already just by moving to an unfamiliar place late in life. Any more melting, and they might dissolve entirely.”[64]

  Instead of asking its clients to do that, centers like those run by Boulevard offer a different level of empathy on a cultural level that makes all the difference. It also turns out to be a great business model; their centers are packed.

  Digital Friends and Empathetic Avatars

  No matter how appealing an eldercare center may be, for millions of people, it will never match the comfort of remaining in their homes. According to AARP, nearly 90 percent of people over the age of 65 would prefer to age at home.[65] And there is ample medical evidence to suggest that if they do, they might have better health, as well.[66] But family members aren’t always able to take care of elderly relatives at home or hire someone to help them. A startup called care.coach has built an ingenious digital solution to this challenge by automating some aspects of in-home care without sacrificing the empathy that a real-life companion would offer.

  Their service is a 24/7 assistant of sorts: a digital avatar (usually in the shape of a cute animated pet) that appears on a tablet screen and interacts with clients. This pet avatar reminds them to take medications, to drink water so they stay hydrated, and when their next appointment is coming up. And they also engage the client in conversation. But here’s the thing: the avatar is staffed by a real person who operates the voice behind the scenes.

  Digital avatar example from care.coach

  The tablet has one-way video mode enabled so the care.coach team members at the other end can keep an eye on their clients. If they see one fall or in need of medical attention, they can quickly call for help. More importantly, care.coach team members engage with those they are caring for in a meaningful way, encouraging them to share memories, listening to their stories, reading to them, and offering companionship. For the clients, the avatar becomes like a cross between a pet and a friend–continually checking on them and helping them with whatever they need.

  Although care.coach relies on some predictive artificial intelligence, it operates on the belief that no technology today can truly anticipate everything that an elderly customer may need the way a real human caregiver might. Like Boulevard’s eldercare centers, care.coach’s deeply personalized service works because it responds not just to the basic care needs of their clients, but because it considers their emotional needs—like their desire to live in a familiar, safe place, or talk to someone who understands them—with empathy.

  The market for eldercare services is a perfect example of why this trend of Enterprise Empathy matters. Nothing could require more compassion than the products or services that come into the home to provide care for our aging loved ones (and ourselves, one day)–whether at home or at a familiar place that feels like home.

  Making Death a Positive Experience

  Talk
ing about death is taboo in most cultures because it is uncomfortable. Most of us go to great lengths to avoid discussing it—usually because it can be scary, and because most of try to spend as little time thinking about our own mortality as we can. It can be depressing.

  Yet there is a movement taking shape of people who are not only brave enough to encourage us all to talk more openly about death, but crazy enough to want to turn it into a positive experience instead. In 2003, a social worker in New York named Henry Ferkso-Weiss became disillusioned with the care and support dying people were receiving from the medical community. In contrast, he noticed that the care provided for birth through doulas and dedicated professionals was vastly more empathetic. Determined to change this, he created a certification program for “end-of-life doulas,” and started the International End of Life Doula Association (INELDA). The doulas certified through his program do not provide medical care, but rather attend to the emotional needs of the dying (and their families) with empathy.[67]

  Since then, a movement of end-of-life doulas—also known as death doulas, end-life coaches, and death midwives—has risen significantly. While some death doulas serve in the community as volunteers, others are setting up their own private practices, charging from $40 to $100 an hour. The growing need has blossomed into a new profession and industry–a powerful example of the Enterprise Empathy trend in action.

  Just as death and empathy have spawned an entirely new field of doulas here in the U.S., in Japan, they have brought about a different and unexpected industry: cleanout professionals.

  For the past seven years, the number of deaths in Japan has outpaced that of births. As the population continues to decline, many older people die without anyone to pass their belongings on to, or with families living far away. The job of these cleanout professionals is to fill the gap.

  When someone passes away, they are hired to come to the home of the deceased and help clear out their possessions. Sometimes, a widow or widower who doesn’t have anyone else to turn to for help will hire them as a partner to take on the sad task no one else is able to do. At other times, they are hired by a grief-stricken family who can’t bear to do the job themselves.

  No matter what the situation, it is a job that requires patience and plenty of empathy, as they go through possessions and decide what to do with them. In fact, empathy is often the reason why one professional gets hired instead of another. It is central to the entire experience because of the level of compassion and discernment involved.

  According to a trade group representing the industry, its 8,000 member companies generate a combined revenue of $4.5 billion annually, and the association estimates that its membership could double in less than five years, which already seems like a conservative estimate.

  Empathetic Work and Customer Experiences

  Two years ago, Starbucks opened its first-ever sign-language-only store in Malaysia, staffed entirely by employees who were either deaf or hard of hearing. This past October, the coffee chain opened another location, this time in downtown Washington, D.C., just a few blocks from Gallaudet University, a 150-year-old institution of learning, teaching, and research for deaf and hard-of-hearing students.

  Starbucks “Signing Store” - Washington, D.C. (Image courtesy of Starbucks)

  Like Starbucks, many companies are leading with empathy and creating more inclusive workplaces, hiring practices, and customer experiences that accommodate people with special needs.

  Software giant SAP estimates that it may fill up to 1 percent of its entire workforce (over 600 people) with people who have autism. They are one of many companies adopting the practice of hiring “neurodiverse” individuals—people who are on the autism spectrum or who have another neurological condition—for their unique abilities, which often include handling technical data and being able to focus on repetitive tasks. Other large organizations, from Microsoft to JP Morgan, have all made similar commitments to diversifying their workforces.

  Beyond creating more inclusive workplaces, many companies are creating empathic customer experiences, as well. Tesco, the U.K.-based grocery chain, has already implemented a “slow lane” checkout for the elderly or anyone else who needs a bit of extra time. And another U.K. grocery chain offers quiet hours for shoppers who need or a prefer to shop without as many distractions or announcements over the loudspeaker. This year, even the National Basketball Association (NBA) made its flagship store on Fifth Avenue more accommodating to customers with sensory sensitivities by offering them noise-cancelling headphones, weighted lap bands, and other conveniences while they shop.

  Why It Matters

  Over the past decade, we’ve seen empathy shift from being perceived as something we taught our kids in kindergarten or expected only from therapists to the key to our emotional intelligence and well-being. Later, as empathy was adopted in the business world as a critical ingredient in effective leadership and teamwork, practicing empathy became something that “evolved” organizations aspired to for innovation, productivity, workplace harmony, and the well-being of the organization.

  Today, this prediction of Enterprise Empathy is moving empathy itself from a “nice to have” into a business imperative, and even a competitive differentiator. In a growing number of examples, empathy has become the driving force in products, services, and customer experiences that people want, and that generate higher revenue, as well. All of this makes a powerful business case for the use of empathy as a strategic way to think more innovatively, drive higher employee engagement, better meet customer needs, and drive a deeper and more loyal customer base, as well.

  How to Use This Trend:

  “Made With Empathy” as a strategy–As more automation is added to many experiences, from customer-care phone conversations to retail checkouts, refocusing on empathy is already a business necessity. For some organizations, this will mean complementing investments in innovation along with training in greater empathy in order to bridge the gap between the two. Doing this well builds a stronger innovation culture, and can foster a keener ability to see non-obvious needs and find deeper solutions for them.

  Deliver empathy at scale–To encourage more empathy across a large organization, the best place to start is often with internal success metrics. Some of the most famously empathetic workplaces, for example, have policies that allow employees to spend an unlimited amount of time with a customer. Part of delivering empathy at scale is creating a workplace culture that encourages workers to be real people first, and treat their customers like family instead of transactions.

  14

  Innovation Envy

  What’s the Trend?

  Fear leads entrepreneurs, businesses, and institutions to envy competitors and approach innovation with admiration or desperation.

  In 2016, one of our Non-Obvious trend predictions was, at the time, moving at lightning speed: Insourced Incubation. The term described the increasing number of companies who felt the need to bring more innovative thinking into their organizations.

  Some companies solved this challenge by hosting innovation competitions, like hackathons. Unilever created a platform, Unilever Foundry, to connect startups with its 400+ brands and find ways to leverage their innovations. Coke launched a commercialization program for startups called The Bridge. The goal of these competitions and collaborative partnerships was to bring much-needed “outside” thinking into these companies in order to tackle the big challenges they were facing.

  Other organizations chose to launch ambitious in-house innovation programs dedicated to driving disruptive thinking internally, instead. Wells Fargo, Visa, and Citi created high-touch innovation labs designed to both showcase their technology and serve as internal ideation studios. Worldwide shopping center owner the Westfield Group converted a floor of its San Francisco mall into a showroom to pilot new retail concepts. Even fast- food retailer Wendy’s got into the innovation lab craze, building its own innovation center to develop and test technologies like mobile payments and ord
ering kiosks.

  As we reported back then, brands in all sorts of industries were desperately trying to find new strategies to innovate and proactively disrupt themselves and their industries, before a startup they didn’t see coming rendered them obsolete.

  What we underestimated at the time was just how much fear was driving these big investments into innovation.

  The Culture of Fear

  In workshop after workshop that my team and I conducted with some of the biggest and most innovative brands in the world, we encountered a genuine desire to find the “next big thing.” What we only discovered later was just how much these same companies were also deeply motivated by an all-consuming fear that nothing less than a complete overhaul of their business would be necessary in order to assure their relevance and survival.

  Disruption was the elusive prize that everyone was seeking, and those who seemed to find it first were universally envied (even by those outside their industry) as the ideal to which everyone else should aspire. Netflix disrupted their DVD rental business, and moved entirely into streaming content. Uber made taxis irrelevant by offering an on-demand ride service that exploded in popularity.

  Warby Parker chose to skip stocking eyewear at retail locations, and instead sold eyewear through an innovative online portal at a deeply discounted rate. They later decided to open their own retail stores to support the online business.