Non-Obvious 2019- How To Predict Trends and Win The Future
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11Bliss point. Michael Moss is a Pulitzer Prize–winning investigative journalist. For a short summary of his story on the scientists who uncovered and exploited the “bliss point,” see this excerpt from his book reprinted in the New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/magazine/the-extraordinary-science-of-junk-food.html
12Addicted by Design. In her book, Schüll explores the idea of a trance-like state she calls the “machine zone,” where gambling addicts play not to win but simply to keep playing. When this machine design is combined with casino’s focus on “ambience management,” addiction is the result.
13Philip Tetlock. The full body of Tetlock’s research was originally presented in his 2005 book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? The book was recently republished (August 2017) with a new preface from the author and updated insights.
14Oscar Wilde. This quote is from Wilde’s play “An Ideal Husband.”
Chapter 4: Strategic Spectacle
1The Humanity Star. Background story from The Atlantic - http://bit.ly/2ziFiUL
2Museum of Ice Cream revenue. Revenue figures come from this Market-watch article - https://on.mktw.net/2B7aJ5x
3“Instagram-optimized funhouses.” Source for quote - http://bit.ly/2K3J741
4Casper retail expansion plans. Source for figures - http://bit.ly/2PZWNm7
5“Omnishoppers.” Link to original study that coined this term - http://bit. ly/2K5akmS
6Value of Banksy artwork. This Newsweek article suggests the painting may be worth more after the shredding - http://bit.ly/2zPbDSm
Chapter 5: Muddled Masculinity
7Sweet Valley High. Archived link to 1986 article from the LA Times about the popularity of the teen romance series - https://lat.ms/2DHoDhs
8What do men think it means to be a man? Full survey results and highlights from FiveThirtyEight - https://53eig.ht/2DHbqVG
9Girl Scout Badges (2018). Full list of badges available for Girl Scouts in 2018 - http://bit.ly/2DFLKJ7
10Modern Masculinity Is Stifling. Read the full article from Sara Rich published on The Atlantic - http://bit.ly/2DExuAc
11Toxic Masculinity” (definition). Full definition from The Good Men Project - http://bit.ly/2DJwICj
12Axe Campaign. Profile piece on the Axe marketing campaign by Adweek - http://bit.ly/2DEpeQZ
13“The Man Box” Report. Download and read the full study from Axe/Unilever and Promundo - http://bit.ly/2RWWeqp
14Doofus Dads In Ads. Read the full article on Adweek - http://bit.ly/2DHhOML
15Men are seen as the financial providers. Details on the Pew research study citing men are still traditionally seen as financial providers of the family - https://pewrsr.ch/2DFM8r3
16Trends in fatherhood imagery. Read the full article on Mashable - http://bit. ly/2DK2UVO
17Past 100 years of baby name trends. Read the full article and name list on Quartz - http://bit.ly/2DL3dQm
Chapter 6: Side Quirks
18Etsy global marketing campaign. Read the full story about Etsy’s campaign on Adweek- http://bit.ly/2OGXYC9
19Cultural map of the world. See the full map and research behind it - http:// bit.ly/2RXhVXF
20Side hustle. Full article about millennials and the rise of the side hustle - http://bit.ly/2RU79Bj
21Hikkimori. Read the full article and photo essay from National Geographic - https://on.natgeo.com/2RUMBbL
22Individualism in China. Read the full article - http://bit.ly/2RUMUTX
23Koreans spending time alone. Read the full article and see the survey data - http://bit.ly/2RUN7Xf
24The Twee Revolution. Full review of the book from The Atlantic - http://bit. ly/2RVuUsS
25Gen Z report. Read the full research report from Sparks & Honey - http://bit. ly/2RVC683
Chapter 7: Artificial Influence
26About Shudu. Quotes from Harper’s Bazaar interview with Cameron-James Wilson - http://bit.ly/2PrKUGj
27Amy Winehouse hologram announcement. Read the full article - http://bit. ly/2B6zyi4
28Profile of GAN creator Ian Goodfellow. MIT magazine full profile - http://bit. ly/2Puk14r
29Deepfakes in the Philippines. For more context on the election, read the full article - http://bit.ly/2Pwi1J7
30Unilever issues mandate to ad industry. Full article - http://bit.ly/2qNZAAG
31Crowdcasting. This term is further explained in this Washington Post article - https://wapo.st/2z905Kj
32Edelman Trust Barometer. Read the full 2018 edition of the report here - http://bit.ly/2RWJ9h5
Chapter 8: RetroTrust
33Reinvention of Kodak. Read the full article - http://bit.ly/2qKNVT0
34Arcade bars in Buenos Aires. Read this for more on the popularity of these destinations - http://bit.ly/2qOfKtW
35Board games make a comeback. Read the full article - http://bit.ly/2OKwQCg
36Profile of Mario Talarico. Read the full profile in National Geographic Travel-ler - http://bit.ly/2RTmZvQ
37Profile of Kari Voutilainen. Read the full profile in the NY Times - https:// nyti.ms/2za6Mvm
Chapter 9: B2Beyond Marketing
38Caterpillar brand strategy. Read the full story on Adage - http://bit.ly/2RWO-pRC
Chapter 10: Fad Fatigue
39Growth of fitness equipment market. The numbers cited come from this article - https://on.mktw.net/2Fml1Tr
40Exercise fad timeline. See the full list of annual fads from 1956 to 2018 - http://bit.ly/2B7N3xX
41Goat yoga. Yes, it is real. This is one of many stories about the curious idea - https://n.pr/2zdwAqu
42Photo Credit: Central Washington University, Flickr - https://flic.kr/p/28Z-jp23
43Cauliflower has its moment. Here’s a comprehensive article about the rise of this despicable vegetable - http://bit.ly/2DF4VTh
44McDonald’s Fries Cure Baldness. Read the full article here - http://bit.ly/2D-EYkZa
45Drinking Coffee Could Shrink Women’s Breasts. Read the full article here - http://bit.ly/2zQRzPy
46Sitting impacts your long-term health. Despite being sponsored by a maker of sit-stand desks, the website JustStand.org has a useful compilation of re-search studies on this topic here - https://www.juststand.org/the-facts/#the_ research
Chapter 11: Extreme Uncluttering
47National Dining Survey. Read the full results from the Zagat Survey - http:// bit.ly/2RZuh1h
48Chefs choose simplicity. Read the full article - http://bit.ly/2RYwyd9
49Amazon Alexa Terms. Read the full terms for Amazon voice search - https:// amzn.to/2S4hjQ1
50Growing up with social media. Read the full article on Washington Post - https://wapo.st/2RZut0v
51Heineken’s new brand strategy. Read the full article on Fast Company - http://bit.ly/2RZhfRq
Chapter 12: Deliberate Downgrading
52John Deere copyright guidelines. Full 2015 guidelines from John Deere - http://bit.ly/2DJUduR
53Tractor ownership. Read the full story on WIRED - http://bit.ly/2DLpqxN
54Right to repair article. See the full interview transcript - http://bit.ly/2DLpm-hy
55“Dumb” phone sales rise. Read the full article with stats from Daily Mail - https://dailym.ai/2DLoHg4
56Publisher revenue statistics. Sales data from the American Association of Publishers - http://bit.ly/2DLpCNy
57Nielsen book sales data. Read the full report from Nielsen with print book sales data - http://bit.ly/2DMMyMp
58Why people prefer print books. Read the full story - http://bit.ly/2DMmSPY
59Popularity of turntables. Read the full article from The Guardian - http://bit. ly/2DMMr3r
60 Golf Industry Report. Full 2018 report from the National Golf Founda-tion - http://bit.ly/2RVf8O
Chapter 13: Enterprise Empathy
61Pollution Pods. These were an art exhibit showcased in 2017 and featuring 6 domes that each included some of the world’s worst air pollution for people to experience. Read more about the experience - https://cnn.it/2DJkl99
63Work and the loneliness epidemic. Read the full article - http://bit.ly/2RYB-grc
64Indian day care center. Read the full story on Pacific Standard - http://bit. ly/2RUX07m
65AARP Study: Aging in place. Read the full study - http://bit.ly/2DJ46J4
66Aging in place reduces healthcare costs. Read the summary of the full study - http://bit.ly/2DI0A1H
67End-of-life Doulas. Profile of the rise of this industry in the Washington Post - https://wapo.st/2RYOOTI
Chapter 14: Innovation Envy
68Lyons, Dan. Lab Rats: How Silicon Valley Made Work Miserable For The Rest Of Us. New York: Hatchette Books, 2018 - Page 71-72.
69Victoria Secret’s “porny” fashion show. Read the full article by Sangeeta Singh-Kurtz - http://bit.ly/2DNMkoa
70Victoria’s Secret stock is falling. Full article from NY Times on the struggles of Victoria’s Secret - https://nyti.ms/2DMUgG4
71Victoria’s Secret hairstylist. Read the full interview in People magazine with Anthony Turner - http://bit.ly/2DIHs3H
72“Amazon Hunger Games.” Read the full article - http://bit.ly/2DLKqV2
73Maltese corruption. Read the full story on BusinessWeek - https://bloom.bg/2DLGWBP
Chapter 15: Robot Renaissance
74Jibo struggling to survive. Read the full analysis on The Robot Review - http://bit.ly/2S0EXg9
75Martine Rothblatt interview. Read the full interview - http://bit.ly/2S1quAu
76Being Sophia. Read the announcement from Hanson Robotics - http://bit. ly/2RVOBAw
Chapter 16: Good Speed
77“Militant optimism.” Read the full article on WIRED from Rosetto - http://bit. ly/2DH9499
78Lego creates more sustainable bricks. Full article from NY Times - https:// nyti.ms/2DHwZp0
79Jose Andres helps Puerto Rico. Full Fast Company article referenced - http:// bit.ly/2DGhVrJ
80Turtle with plastic straw video. Read the referenced TIME article and watch the video - http://bit.ly/2DFIc9L
81Japanese used goods industry. The cited figures about growth come from the Japan Times - http://bit.ly/2DEui7G
Chapter 17: Overwealthy
82As several early readers shared with me, this is not a perspective shared by most Harvard graduates.
83Uneasy Street book review. Read the full review on Businessweek - https://bloom.bg/2S6sMi7
84Alumni giving is shrinking. Read the full article from Inside Philanthropy - http://bit.ly/2S6tXhx
85Giridharadas, Anand. Winners Take All: The Elite Charade of Changing the World. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2018 - Page 266.
86Meaningful work survey. Read the full SHRM 2017 Employee Job Satisfaction and Engagement Survey - http://bit.ly/2S0U890
87“if helping others …” This quote is from an interview with Giridharadas pub-lished in WIRED magazine. http://bit.ly/2DKzXJv
Chapter 18: Passive Loyalty
88Colloquy loyalty research. Read the full study–http://bit.ly/2QSSVkd
89 % of consumers are transient. Full study from Maritz - http://bit.ly/2DI-Awnj
90The consumer decision journey. Full article from McKinsey Quarterly - https://mck.co/2DKNtwM
91Wireless provider rankings. Data from CIRP on wireless carrier loyalty rank-ings cited - http://bit.ly/2DIDR5y
92Metlife benefits survey. Results from the MetLife U.S. Employee Benefits Trend Study - http://bit.ly/2DMtYnA
93SHRM job satisfaction survey. Results from 2017 SHRM Employee Job Satis-faction survey - http://bit.ly/2S0U890
Chapter 19: Intersection Thinking
1RumChata popularity. These claims are taken from an interview conducted on CNBC by Jim Cramer with RumChata founder Tom Maas. Full story - http://cnb.cx/2giWzU1
2Pluot. While this may seem fabricated, the pluot is indeed a real fruit—and certainly not to be confused with the plumcot, which is different. If the story interests you, read more here: http://bit.ly/pluotstory
3Bolthouse Farms. Bolthouse is generally credited with being the first to introduce “baby carrots” to consumers.
4“Kind of addictive.” Full story - http://bit.ly/2wCyLR6
5Persuadable. I first encountered this term when reading a book of the same title by author Ali Pittampalli.
Chapter 21: Anti-Trends
6Flip thinking. This idea was first described in an Op-Ed contributed piece by Dan Pink for The Telegraph. Full story - http://bit.ly/2xoyocu
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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The concept for the book has been many years in the making– and now that it is officially an annual series with a new update every year, the first group of people I need to thank are the many people who have read an earlier edition of this book or one of my Non-Obvious Trend Reports and decided to get in touch and interact with me directly.
As much as anyone, this book is for all of you–and if you happen to be among that group, I want to thank you first.
Aside from this broad group, there are also some individuals who helped with various stages of getting this 2019 update (and previous editions) ready for publication and deserve my specific thanks:
First of all, to Paresh for jumping into the process of trend curation, working on the ideas, becoming a true partner and just being a force for good. Your insights in helping to bring these trends to life this year as well as your leadership in helping us bring them into organizations around the world is helping us to spread the power of non-obvious thinking globally - and it’s a beautiful journey.
To Gretchen, Matthew, Terry and Christina for offering an ongoing sounding board of editorial advice and jumping in to provide assistance when needed on updates this year and in previous years as well. This year I also owe significant thanks to Genoveva, who joined and worked tirelessly on the trends to make them stronger. The book benefitted greatly from your thoughtful and well-constructed suggestions ... so thank you!
To Joss, Frank, Anton, and Jessica for all your design smarts and making the visual design of the book as beautiful as it is, and to the entire design team at Faceout for the original inspiration and setting the tone for the series back in the beginning.
To Marleen, Chrys and the foreign rights team for helping to bring the ideas in Non-Obvious to so many diverse audiences around the world in their own language and continuing to grow this list every year.
To Marnie for all your work keeping this and so many other Ideapress projects on track.
To Rich for being a great partner, always working under a crazy time-line and still getting things done like a pro.
To my wife Chhavi, who continually manages to deal with a shifting annual writing process that requires me to disappear to finish off chapters and “visualize” ideas by spreading my notes across entire rooms of the house. You are the first person to tell me when it’s good and the first to tell me when it isn’t. I love that.
And finally, to my boys Rohan and Jaiden for remaining curious enough about the world to continually inspire me to observe more, judge less and always listen with both ears.
From time to time, we all can use a reminder like that.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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Rohit Bhargava is a trend curator, marketing expert, storyteller and the Wall Street Journal best-selling author of six books on topics as wide ranging as the future of business and why leaders never eat cauliflower. Rohit is the founder of the Non-Obvious Company, teaches marketing and storytelling at Georgetown University and has been invited to deliver non-boring keynotes for more than 500 events in 32 countries around the world.
Prior to becoming an entrepreneur, Rohit spent 15 years leading brand strategy at two of the largest marketing agencies in the world (Ogilvy and Leo Burnett). He lives in the Washington DC area with his wife and two boys.
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