The Miracle Pill

by Peter Walker

  14 Peter Walker, ‘Reduction in passenger road deaths “not matched by cyclists and pedestrians” ’, The Guardian, 30 January 2020.

  15 Colin Buchanan, Traffic in Towns (London: Penguin, 1964).

  16 Vic Langenhoff, Stop de Kindermoord, De Tijd, 20 September 1972. Langenhoff wrote the article after his daughter Simone had been killed by a speeding car. The driver was fined the equivalent of £20. Then one of his older daughters was injured after being forced off her bike by a driver. Langenhoff said his new pressure group would try and ‘break through the apathy with which the Dutch people accept the daily carnage of children in traffic’, writing: ‘This country chooses one kilometre of motorway over 100 kilometres of safe cycle paths. There’s no pressure group? Let’s start one. Parents of little victims, worried parents of potential little victims: unite.’

  17 Takemi Sugiyama et al., ‘Neighborhood Walkability and TV Viewing Time Among Australian Adults’, American Journal of Preventive Medicine, Vol. 33, No. 6 (2007): 444–9.

  18 Alison Carver et al., ‘How are the built environment and household travel characteristics associated with children’s active transport in Melbourne, Australia?’, Journal of Transport and Health, Vol. 12 (2019): 115–29.

  19 Gehl, Life Between Buildings.

  20 David Sim, Soft City: Building Density for Everyday Life (Washington DC: Island Press, 2019).

  21 Interview with the author.

  22 Peter Walker, ‘Utrecht’s Cycling Lessons for Migrants: “Riding a Bike Makes Me Feel More Dutch” ’, The Guardian, 28 April 2016.

  23 CROW, ‘Design manual for bicycle traffic’, 2007 https://www.crow.nl/publicaties/design-manual-for-bicycle-traffic

  24 Mark Wagenbuur, ‘Dutch cycling figures’, Bicycle Dutch, January 2018 https://bicycledutch.wordpress.com/2018/01/02/dutch-cycling-figures/

  25 Department for Transport, National Travel Survey 2018.

  26 2011 Census: distance travelled to work.

  27 Pedro C. Hallal et al., ‘Global physical activity levels: surveillance progress, pitfalls, and prospects’, The Lancet, Vol. 380, No. 9838 (2012): 247–57.

  28 Bike Europe, ‘E-Bike Now Biggest Category in the Netherlands’, 5 March 2019 https://www.bike-eu.com/market/nieuws/2019/03/e-bike-now-biggest-category-in-the-netherlands-10135442

  29 Alberto Castro et al., ‘Physical activity of electric bicycle users compared to conventional bicycle users and non-cyclists: Insights based on health and transport data from an online survey in seven European cities’, Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, Vol. 1 (2019).

  30 Interview with the author.

  31 All statistics from Odense municipality.

  32 Interview with the author.

  33 Avril Blamey, Nanette Mutrie, Tom Aitchison, ‘Health promotion by encouraged use of stairs’, British Medical Journal, Vol. 311, No. 7000 (1995): 289–90.

  34 Juan Pablo Rey-Lopez, Emmanuel Stamatakisa, Martin Mackey, Howard D. Sessode, I-Min Lee, ‘Associations of self-reported stair climbing with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: The Harvard Alumni Health Study’, Preventative Medicine Reports, Vol. 15 (2019).

  35 Interview with the author.

  36 Interview with the author.

  37 Naoko Muramatsu, Hiroko Akiyama, ‘Japan: Super-Aging Society Preparing for the Future’, The Gerontologist, Vol. 51, No. 4 (2011): 425–32.

  38 Bjarke Ingels Group, BIG leadership https://big.dk/#about

  39 Interview with the author.

  40 Caroline Criado-Perez, Invisible Women: Exposing Data Bias in a World Designed for Men (London: Vintage, 2020).

  41 Data from Active People Interactive research tool on Sport England website.

  Chapter 6

  1 Interview with the author.

  2 Tom Watson, Downsizing: How I lost 8 stone, reversed my diabetes and regained my health (London: Octopus, 2020).

  3 Thomas Burgoine, Nita G, Forouhi, Simon J. Griffin, Nicholas J, Wareham, Pablo Monsivais, ‘Associations between exposure to takeaway food outlets, takeaway food consumption, and body weight in Cambridgeshire, UK: population based, cross sectional study’, British Medical Journal, Vol. 348 (2014): g1464.

  4 Natasha A. Schvey et al., ‘The Experience of Weight Stigma Among Gym Members with Overweight and Obesity’, Stigma and Health, Vol. 2, No. 4 (2017): 292–306.

  5 Interview with the author.

  6 Iris Shai et al., ‘Ethnicity, obesity, and risk of type 2 diabetes in women: a 20-year follow-up study’, Diabetes Care, Vol. 29, No. 7 (2006): 1585–90.

  7 Paul Deurenberg, Mabel Deurenberg-Yap, Syafri Guricci, ‘Asians are different from Caucasians and from each other in their body mass index/body fat per cent relationship’, Obesity Reviews, Vol. 3 (2002): 141-6.

  8 World Health Organization expert consultation, ‘Appropriate body-mass index for Asian populations and its implications for policy and intervention strategies’, The Lancet, Vol. 363 (2004) https://www.who.int/nutrition/publications/bmi_asia_strategies.pdf?ua=1;https://www.gov.scot/publications/obesity-indicators/pages/4/

  9 NHS: Health Survey for England 2018. Overweight and obesity in adults and children, December 2019 https://files.digital.nhs.uk/52/FD7E18/HSE18-Adult-Child-Obesity-rep.pdf

  10 Scottish government: Obesity Indicators 2018.

  11 Health Survey for England 2018.

  12 Health Survey for England 2018.

  13 Health Survey for England 2018.

  14 World Health Organization, ‘Factsheets: Obesity and overweight’, April 2020 https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight

  15 Dr Margaret Chan, ‘Obesity and diabetes: the slow-motion disaster – Keynote address at the 47th meeting of the National Academy of Medicine’, Washington DC, 17 October 2016 https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/2016/obesity-diabetes-disaster/en/

  16 Marie Ng et al., ‘Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013’, The Lancet, Vol. 384, No. 9945 (2014): 766–81.

  17 Youfa Wang et al., ‘Prevention and control of obesity in China’, The Lancet Global Health, Vol. 7, No. 9 (2019): E1166–E1167.

  18 Rajeev Ahirwar, Prakash Ranjan Mondal, ‘Prevalence of obesity in India: A systematic review’, Diabetes and Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research and Reviews, Vol. 13, No. 1 (2019): 318–32.

  19 NHS: Statistics on Obesity, Physical Activity and Diet, England, 2019 (May 2019) https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/statistics-on-obesity-physical-activity-and-diet/statistics-on-obesity-physical-activity-and-diet-england-2019/part-1-obesity-related-hospital-admissions

  20 Sarah Boseley, ‘Global cost of obesity-related illness to hit $1.2tn a year from 2025’, The Guardian, 10 October 2017.

  21 Stanley N. Gershoff, ‘Jean Mayer: 1920–1993’, Journal of Nutrition, Vol. 131, No. 6 (2001): 1651–4.

  22 Jean Mayer, ‘The physiological basis of obesity and leanness I’, Nutrition Abstracts and Reviews, Vol. 25, No. 3 (1955): 597–611.

  23 Drew Desilver, ‘What’s on your table? How America’s diet has changed over the decades’, Pew Research Center, 13 December 2016.

  24 Rachel Griffith, Rodrigo Lluberas, Melanie Lührmann, ‘Gluttony and Sloth? Calories, Labor Market Activity and the Rise of Obesity’, Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 14, No. 6 (2016): 1253–86.

  25 Katy Askew, ‘Britons underestimate calorie intake by one third’, Food Navigator, 18 February 2018.

  26 Robert Ross, Ian Janssen, ‘Physical Activity, Fitness and Obesity’, in Physical Activity and Health, eds Claude Bouchard, Steven N. Blair, William L. Haskell (Champaign, Illinois; Human Kinetics, 2012), p. 205.

  27 R. James Stubbs et al., ‘A decrease in physical activity affects appetite, energy, and nutrient balance in lean men feeding ad libitum’, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, Vol. 79, No. 1 (2004): 62–9.

  28 Stephen Whybrow et al., �
��The effect of an incremental increase in exercise on appetite, eating behaviour and energy balance in lean men and women feeding ad libitum’, British Journal of Nutrition, Vol. 100, No. 5 (2008): 1109–15.

  29 Robert Ross, ‘Physical Activity, Fitness and Obesity’, in Physical Activity and Health, eds Claude Bouchard, Steven N. Blair, William L. Haskell (Champaign, Illinois: Human Kinetics, 2012), p. 200.

  30 Dawn E. Alley, Virginia W. Chang, ‘The Changing Relationship of Obesity and Disability, 1988–2004’, Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 298, No. 17 (2007): 2020–7.

  31 Flurin Item, Daniel Konrad, ‘Visceral fat and metabolic inflammation: the portal theory revisited’, Obesity Review, Vol. 13, No. S2 (2012): 30–9.

  32 Robert Ross et al., ‘Waist circumference as a vital sign in clinical practice: a Consensus Statement from the IAS and ICCR Working Group on Visceral Obesity’, Nature Reviews Endocrinology, Vol. 16, No. 3 (2020): 177–89.

  33 Interview with the author.

  34 Diabetes UK: Diabetes Prevalence, January 2019 https://www.diabetes.co.uk/diabetes-prevalence.html

  35 Silke Feller, Heiner Boeing, Tobias Pischon, ‘Body Mass Index, Waist Circumference, and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Implications for Routine Clinical Practice’, Deutsches Ärzteblatt International, Vol. 107, No. 26 (2010).

  36 James R. Cerhan et al., ‘A pooled analysis of waist circumference and mortality in 650,000 adults’, Mayo Clinic Proceedings, Vol. 89, No. 3 (2014): 335–45.

  37 Michael Lean et al., ‘Waist circumference as a measure for indicating need for weight management’, British Medical Journal, Vol. 311, No. 6998 (1995): 158–61.

  38 NHS: Why is my waist size important? https://www.nhs.uk/common-health-questions/lifestyle/why-is-my-waist-size-important/

  39 Win Saris et al., ‘How much physical activity is enough to prevent unhealthy weight gain? Outcome of the IASO 1st Stock Conference and consensus statement’, Obesity Reviews, Vol. 4, No. 2 (2003): 101–14.

  40 I Hadjiolova et al., ‘Physical working capacity in obese women after an exercise programme for body weight reduction’, International Journal of Obesity, Vol. 6 (1982): 405–10.

  41 Naomi Y. J. Brinkmans et al., ‘Energy expenditure and dietary intake in professional football players in the Dutch Premier League: Implications for nutritional counselling’, Journal of Sports Science, Vol. 37, No. 24 (2019): 2759–67.

  42 Interview with the author.

  43 Chong Do Lee, Steven N. Blair, Andrew S. Jackson, ‘Cardiorespiratory fitness, body composition, and all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in men’, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, Vol. 69, No. 3 (1999): 373–80.

  44 Xuemei Sui, Steven N. Blair et al., ‘Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Adiposity as Mortality Predictors in Older Adults’, Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 298, No. 1 (2007): 2507–16.

  45 Interview with the author.

  46 Frank B. Hu et al., ‘Adiposity as compared with physical activity in predicting mortality among women’, New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 351, No. 26 (2004): 2694–703.

  47 ZiMian Wang et al., ‘Systematic organization of body-composition methodology: an overview with emphasis on component-based methods’, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, Vol. 61, No. 3 (1995): 457–65.

  Chapter 7

  1 Calculation based on England, where there are about 7 million smokers (15% of an adult population of just over 47 million) and about 70,000 tobacco-related deaths per year. Smoking rates and deaths from NHS: Statistics on Smoking – England, 2018 https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/statistics-on-smoking/statistics-on-smoking-england-2018/

  2 Neville Owen et al., ‘Sedentary Behavior and Public Health: Integrating the Evidence and Identifying Potential Solutions’, Annual Review of Public Health, Vol. 41 (2020): 265–87.

  3 Maedeh Mansoubi et al., ‘Energy expenditure during common sitting and standing tasks: examining the 1.5 MET definition of sedentary behaviour’, BMC Public Health, Vol. 15, No. 1 (2015): 516.

  4 Vybarr Cregan-Reid, Primate Change (London: Cassell, 2018), p. 12.

  5 Cregan-Reid, Primate Change, p. 192–3.

  6 Census figures compiled by Marjie Bloy, University of Singapore https://sites.google.com/site/motman/Home/information/occupations

  7 NHS England: Why we should sit less https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/exercise/why-sitting-too-much-is-bad-for-us/

  8 Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, What is sedentary behaviour? https://baker.edu.au/health-hub/rise-recharge

  9 Adrian Bauman et al., ‘The Descriptive Epidemiology of Sitting: A 20-Country Comparison Using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ)’, American Journal of Preventive Medicine, Vol. 41, No. 2 (2011): 228–35.

  10 Keith M. Diaz et al., ‘Patterns of Sedentary Behavior in US Middle-Age and Older Adults: The REGARDS Study’, Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, Vol. 48, No. 3 (2017): 430–8.

  11 Officially known as the Sens Motion https://sens.dk/

  12 Lionel Bey and Marc T. Hamilton, ‘Suppression of skeletal muscle lipoprotein lipase activity during physical inactivity: a molecular reason to maintain daily low-intensity activity’, The Journal of Physiology, Vol. 551, No. 2 (2003): 673–82.

  13 B. Saltin, G. Blomqvist, J. H. Mitchell, R. L. Johnson Jr, K. Wildenthal, C. B. Chapman, ‘Response to exercise after bed rest and after training’, Circulation, Vol. 38, No. 5s7 (1968).

  14 Alpa V. Patel et al., ‘Prolonged Leisure Time Spent Sitting in Relation to Cause-Specific Mortality in a Large US Cohort’, American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 187, No. 10 (2018): 2151–8.

  15 Katrien Wijndaele et al., ‘Television viewing time independently predicts all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: the EPIC Norfolk Study’, International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 40, No. 1 (2011): 150–9.

  16 Sarah K. Keadle et al., ‘Causes of Death Associated with Prolonged TV Viewing’, American Journal of Preventive Medicine, Vol. 49, No. 6 (2015): 811–21.

  17 Interview with the author.

  18 Cregan-Reid, Primate Change, p. 115.

  19 Madina Saidj et al., ‘Work and leisure time sitting and inactivity: Effects on cardiorespiratory and metabolic health’, European Journal of Preventive Cardiology, Vol. 23, No. 12 (2015): 1321–9.

  20 Mats Hallgren et al., ‘Cross-sectional and prospective relationships of passive and mentally active sedentary behaviours and physical activity with depression’, British Journal of Psychiatry, Vol. 217, No. 2 (2020): 413–19.

  21 James Levine, Get Up! Why Your Chair is Killing You and What You Can Do About it (New York: St Martin’s Griffin, 2014).

  22 Levine, Get Up!, p. 39.

  23 James A. Levine, Norman L. Eberhardt, Michael D. Jensen, ‘Role of nonexercise activity thermogenesis in resistance to fat gain in humans’, Science, Vol. 283, No. 5399 (1999): 212–14.

  24 James A. Levine, Sara J. Schleusner, Michael D. Jensen, ‘Energy expenditure of nonexercise activity’, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, Vol. 72, No. 6 (2000): 1451–4.

  25 Ying Zhang et al., ‘Basal metabolic rate of overweight and obese adults in Beijing’, Wei Sheng Yan Jiu (Journal of Hygiene Research), Vol. 45, No. 5 (2016): 739–48.

  26 Interview with the author.

  27 Snehal M. Pinto Pereira, Myung Ki, Chris Power, ‘Sedentary Behaviour and Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes in Mid-Life: The Role of Television-Viewing and Sitting at Work’, PLOS One, Vol. 7, No. 2 (2012): Article e31132.

  28 Patrik Wennberg, Per E. Gustafsson, David W. Dunstan, Maria Wennberg, Anne Hammarström, ‘Television Viewing and Low Leisure-Time Physical Activity in Adolescence Independently Predict the Metabolic Syndrome in Mid-Adulthood’, Diabetes Care, Vol. 36, No. 7 (2013): 2090–7.

  29 Interview with the author.

  30 Genevieve N. Healy et al., ‘Breaks in Sedentary Time: Beneficial associations with metabolic risk’, Diabetes Care, Vol. 31, No. 4 (2008): 661–6.
>
  31 Keith M. Diaz et al., ‘Patterns of Sedentary Behavior and Mortality in U.S. Middle-Aged and Older Adults: A National Cohort Study’, Annals of Internal Medicine, Vol. 167, No. 7 (2017): 465–75.

  32 Joseph Henson et al., ‘Predictors of the acute postprandial response to breaking up prolonged sitting’, Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, Vol. 52, No. 6 (2020): 1385–93.

  33 Interview with the author.

  34 Genevieve N. Healy et al., ‘A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial to Reduce Office Workers’ Sitting Time: Effect on Activity Outcomes’, Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, Vol. 48, No. 9 (2016): 1787–97.

  35 Interview with the author.

  36 Interview with the author.

  37 Ulf Ekelund et al., ‘Does physical activity attenuate, or even eliminate, the detrimental association of sitting time with mortality? A harmonised meta-analysis of data from more than 1 million men and women’, The Lancet, Vol. 388, No. 10051 (2016): 1302–10.

  38 Email correspondence with the author.

  Chapter 8

  1 Interview with the author.

  2 Statistics supplied by Daily Mile.

  3 NHS Health Survey for England 2016: Physical Activity in Adults.

  4 NHS Health Survey for England 2015: Physical Activity in Children.

  5 Hallal et al., ‘Global physical activity levels: surveillance progress, pitfalls, and prospects’.

  6 Gavin R. H. Sandercock, Ayodele Ogunleye, Christine Voss, ‘Six year changes in body mass index and cardiorespiratory fitness of English schoolchildren from an affluent area’, International Journal of Obesity, Vol. 39, No. 10 (2015): 1504–7.

  7 Gavin R. H. Sandercock, Daniel D. Cohen, ‘Temporal trends in muscular fitness of English 10-year-olds 1998–2014: An allometric approach’, Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport, Vol. 22, No. 2 (2019): 201–5.

  8 Mark S, Tremblay, Joel D. Barnes, Jennifer L. Copeland, Dale W. Esliger, ‘Conquering Childhood Inactivity: Is the Answer in the Past?’, Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, Vol. 37, No. 7 (2005): 1187–94.