Bridgital Nation
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5. This is the maximum number of filings that a larger corporation with multiple businesses and a pan-India footprint may have to make. For a firm like Amit’s, the number of filings related to labour regulations would be closer to 10–40.
200 laws: Devashish Mitra, ‘How labour regulations affect manufacturing in India’, Mint, 2018. Available at: https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/53blF1v8tQKSap0crJ9YxL/How-labour-regulations-affect-manufacturing-in-India.html
1,800 possible filings: Manish Sabharwal and Sandeep Agrawal, ‘Changing the Indian state from bully to ally’, Mint, 2018. Available at: https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/M3TMqxxMuDNrswoznJCVaO/Opinion--Changing-the-Indian-state-from-bully-to-ally.html
6. ‘India jumps 23 spots to No. 77 on World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index’, India Today, 2018. Available at: https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/india-ease-of-doing-business-index-77-position-1379663-2018-10-31
7. High-growth and low-growth state figures: ‘Ease of Doing Business’, NITI Aayog and IDFC Institute, 2017. Available at: https://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/document_publication/EoDB_Single.pdf
Mumbai and Delhi figures: ‘Doing Business’, World Bank Group, 2019. Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/doingBusiness/media/Annual-Reports/English/DB2019-report_web-version.pdf
OECD figure: ‘Doing Business: Regional Profile OECD High Income’, World Bank Group, 2019. Available at: http://www.doingbusiness.org/content/dam/doingBusiness/media/Profiles/Regional/DB2019/OECD-High-Income.pdf
8. Mumbai and Delhi figures: ‘Doing Business’, World Bank Group, 2019. Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/doingBusiness/media/Annual-Reports/English/DB2019-report_web-version.pdf
OECD figure: ‘Doing Business: Regional Profile OECD High Income’, World Bank Group, 2019. Available at: http://www.doingbusiness.org/content/dam/doingBusiness/media/Profiles/Regional/DB2019/OECD-High-Income.pdf
CHAPTER 32: EMBRACING EVERYWHERE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
1. South Korea, Singapore: Shankha Chakraborty et al., ‘Prosperity of Nations: Does culture matter for entrepreneurship?’, World Bank, 2015. Available at: https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/prosperity-nations-does-culture-matter-entrepreneurship
Rwanda: Tik Root, ‘Start-Ups For the State’, Foreign Policy, 2016. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/26/start-ups-for-the-state-rwanda-entrepreneurship/
2. Sang M. Lee et al., ‘Impact of Entrepreneurship Education: A Comparative Study of the U.S. and Korea’, International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, 2005. Available at: http://cbafiles.unl.edu/public/cbainternal/researchlibrary/Impact%20of%20Entrepreneurship%20Education-%20A%20Comparative%20Study%20of%20the%20U0.pdf
3. Manish Sabharwal, ‘Problem is wages, not jobs; answer lies in formalisation, financialisation’, The Indian Express, 2018. Available at: https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/manish-sabharwal-problem-is-wages-not-jobs-minimum-salary-unemployment-indian-gdp-5106348/
4. The statutory programmes include the Employees’ Provident Fund and Family Pension Schemes, Labour Welfare Fund and Employee State Insurance, to name a few. The quantification of the ‘wedge’ this creates (the gap between the cost of an employee to the firm and her take-home pay, not including income tax) is based on the stylized example in ‘Economic Survey 2015-16’, Ministry of Finance, Government of India, 2016. Available at: https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/budget2016-2017/es2015-16/echapvol1-10.pdf
5. ‘Future of Jobs in India–Enterprises and Livelihoods: Volumes 1 and 2’, Confederation of Indian Industry, 2017. Available at: https://www.cii.in/PublicationDetail.aspx?enc= afvfGzlF0Fcptetf1p0zirJHzFDI6duqPQJnbIo47bgay SEB9GJ5JAAvheCVVV/qQVAYYae8SGEodntCCz 7nK17rgtBzfL6+x4iqLuy8AYyuA8w/FnZkXLkMC r3RYhmCoYlp566LRg2ZYm8OIY3Iw MdDIyKUQ1FK3bGDZxqrs9IznVBA2 WwJNbDm1nTPh2I2
6. ‘Districts’, Government of India, 2019. Available at: http://www.goidirectory.gov.in/district.php
7. Amit tried selling his garments through electronic marketplaces but had to stop when the cost of returns and refunds exceeded what he could afford. It wasn’t just that one in three pieces were returned—a higher volume than he expected—but that some buyers were clearly taking advantage of the return policy: The garments they sent back were visibly used.
8. Adapted from Amolo Ng’weno and David Porteous, ‘Let’s Be Real: The Informal Sector and the Gig Economy Are the Future, and the Present, of Work in Africa’, Centre for Global Development, 2018. Available at: https://www.cgdev.org/publication/lets-be-real-informal-sector-and-gig-economy-are-future-and-present-work-africa
9. ‘Impact of internet and digitisation on SMBs in India’, KPMG India and Google, 2017. Available at: https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/in/pdf/2017/01/Impact-of-internet-and-digitisation.pdf
10. David Eaves and Ben McGuire, ‘Lessons from Estonia on digital government’, Policy Options Politiques, 2019. Available at: https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/february-2019/lessons-estonia-digital-government/
11. Information available to every government arm: Rainer Kattel and Ines Mergel, ‘Estonia’s Digital Transformation’, University College London, 2018. Available at: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/sites/public-purpose/files/iipp-wp-2018-09_estonias_digital_transformation.pdf
800 years of working time: Heiko Vainsalu, ‘How do Estonians save annually 820 years of work without much work?’, e-Estonia, 2017. Available at: https://e-estonia.com/how-save-annually-820-years-of-work/
CHAPTER 33: SMALL BUSINESS, LARGE IMPACT
1. Based on analysis done by Tata Sons and Dalberg. India’s total workforce is projected to increase from 454 million in 2014 to 533 million by 2030. The baseline distribution of the workforce in 2030 is assumed to evolve (broadly) in line with historical trends. Farmers will decline as a share of the workforce. Similarly, the share of casual labourers, public administration and defence employees, and self-employed will also come down marginally. Concurrently, there will be an increase in the share of employment in the private sector, with firm sizes of 2–9, 10–199 and 200+ employees. However, it is assumed that the distribution within these three categories will remain the same in 2030, as in 2014.
For the everywhere entrepreneurship scenario, a further decline in casual labour and self-employment is modelled, while the number of farmers, government and defence employees continues to be the same as in the baseline scenario. We project SME employment—employment in 10–199 category—will increase to 30 per cent of private sector employment (self-employment and employment in firms with 2–9, 10–199 and 200+ employees), similar to developing country averages. The other categories are adjusted accordingly.
CHAPTER 34: NEW AIMS
1. Per capita income: ‘Economic Survey of Karnataka 2017–18’, Government of Karnataka, 2017–18. Available at: http://planning.kar.nic.in/docs/Economic%20Survey%20Reports/ES_17-18/English.pdf
Education and literacy statistics: ‘District and State report cards’, DISE, National Institute of Educational Planning and Administration, 2016–17. Available at: http://udise.in/ElementarySRC-2013-14.htm?ay=2016-17#
2. Based on analysis by Tata Sons and TCS. The extra doctor-hours are calculated based on an estimate that 50,000 oncology surgeries are performed every year at private and public hospitals across India.
CHAPTER 35: ASHAS
1. ASHAs—Accredited Social Health Activists—play a key role in the National Rural Health Mission, launched in 2005. As trained community health workers, selected from the village itself, they work as an interface between the community and the public health system. Their role includes creating awareness on health issues, mobilizing the community towards local health planning, and increasing utilization of the existing health services. Originally, they focused heavily on maternal and child health, but additional duties such as tuberculosis care and screening for non-communicable diseases have been added to their responsibilities. As of 2018, there are 1,023,136 ASHAs across the country. India’s maternal mortality ratio has shown a decline to 167 pe
r 100,000 live births in the period 2011–13 from 212 between 2007–09. The infant mortality rate has also seen a decline to 37 per 1,000 live births in 2015, from 42 in 2012. ASHAs are not the only reason for the decline, but multiple studies reinforce the importance of their role.
CHAPTER 37: UBAYAKUSHALAOPARI
1. Estimates show 53 per cent of women and 23 per cent of men in India aged 15–49 have anaemia. The prevalence of anaemia is consistently high, at more than 50 per cent, in almost all subgroups of women. Source: National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2015–16. Available at: http://rchiips.org/nfhs/NFHS-4Reports/India.pdf
CHAPTER 39: THE BRIDGITAL MODEL
1. For a more detailed methodology note, refer to the technical appendix of ‘A Future That Works: Automation, Employment and Productivity’, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2017. Available at : https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/Digital%20Disruption/Harnessing%20automation%20for%20a%20future%20that%20works/MGI-A-future-that-works-Executive-summary.ashx
2. The diagram shows that 25–30 per cent of doctor time is freed up through a combination of automation and the shifting of tasks. This is the outcome of an extensive piece of analysis using multiple sources: McKinsey Global Institute’s Automation Model, expert interviews with McKinsey & Company’s Healthcare Practice team, and time-motion studies across five private and public healthcare service delivery facilities. This estimate is generalized to the ‘average doctor’ given that a variety of doctors were surveyed, including specialists like paediatricians, general surgeons, neonatologists, oncological surgeons, as well as general medicine doctors. This was done to average out differences in time use across medical specializations and types of facilities. For instance, compared to doctors in public health facilities, doctors in private health facilities often spend more time on core tasks, less time on administrative duties, and are more advanced adopters of digital technologies. The case of the oncological surgeon mentioned previously in the chapter is an example of this—the inefficiencies in time use were relatively high, given it took place in a public hospital with limited digitisation.
3. Estimations based on work by Tata Sons and McKinsey & Company. There is no ready estimate of the number of doctors in India. The figures reported in government data are based on the Medical Council of India’s database of registered doctors. It includes the stock of all registered doctors starting from the 1960s, when the registry was begun, and hasn’t been adjusted to reflect death, retirement, emigration or exit from the medical profession. We made adjustments using the methodology in Basant Potnuru, ‘Aggregate availability of doctors in India: 2014-2030’, Indian Journal of Public Health, 2017 to estimate practising doctors. This suggests applying an adjustment factor of 25–35 per cent to reported figures to account for doctors registered, but not available.
India currently has the capacity to train around 66,000 doctors per year. Most of the increase in capacity has been recent, and will only reflect 3–5 years from now. Net additions, adjusting for emigrations and retirement from the existing stock of doctors, is estimated to be 30,000 per year before 2025, and rises to 50,000 per year after 2025. Incremental doctor addition to the stock of registered doctors is adjusted to reflect this increase—even though this assumes a much tighter link between the capacity for training doctors and the availability of doctors, than seen in practice.
4. Estimations based on work by Tata Sons and McKinsey & Company. We can think of doctors in the Bridgital healthcare system—the Bridgital doctors of the future—as capable of servicing more patients than doctors currently. In effect, this is equivalent to adding to the stock of doctors in the healthcare system. Freeing up doctor time via automation and task shifting provides the equivalent of an additional 286,116 doctors by 2025 and 372,710 doctors by 2030. This addresses more than 90 per cent of the gap to the normative level of one doctor per thousand population in 2030 (than would happen without the Bridgital intervention).
CHAPTER 40: BRIDGITAL MORE BROADLY
1. Formally extension services refer to the ‘provision of information services to farmers’. Agriculture extension workers bridge the gap between farmers and the latest agricultural research. They do so by communicating market developments and new technologies to farmers, fostering linkages to markets and the agricultural value chain, and training in new skills to improve farmer livelihoods. The aim is to enhance farmers’ knowledge about crop techniques and help them increase their productivity. The forms of such engagement include training courses, farm trials and trade events, among others. The penetration of public extension services in India is low—estimated to be lower than 10 per cent of farmers in 2012. See ‘Fact sheet on extension services’, Global Forum for Rural Advisory Services, 2012. A 2011 study by M.J. Chandragowda found that over a third of the 140,000 extension worker positions in the Department of Agriculture remained vacant.
2. China and Vietnam have more than one public sector extension worker per village (one per 250–350 farm households or 0.8–0.9 villages). In Indonesia, one public sector extension worker covers around three villages. India has sanctioned positions for a span of seven villages, with vacancies worsening the ratio to one per eleven villages. The potential augmented extension workers is calculated assuming India achieves the levels of coverage of China and Vietnam in the high case, and the average of Indonesia, China and Vietnam in the low case, while also filling existing vacancies. sixty per cent of our projected 2025 farm holdings are assumed to adopt some form of Bridgital extension services. The number of farm holdings in 2025 is estimated based on the growth rate of 1.4 per cent per year, calculated for the last five-year period before the 2011 agricultural census.
3. McKinsey & Company analysis, based on interviews with multiple logistics start-ups.
4. Estimations based on work by Tata Sons and McKinsey & Company, as well as ‘India’s Trillion-Dollar Digital Economy’, Government of India, Ministry of Electronics & Information Technology (MEITY), February 2019.
Acknowledgements
FROM N. CHANDRASEKARAN
Over the past three decades, my career at TCS gave me the opportunity to understand how technology can impact businesses. In the Indian context, I have been able to see how the digitization of systems, such as passport issuance and income tax filing, has made a significant impact on the public as well. My colleagues at TCS and many of our customers helped me understand the power of technology in different situations. All of these experiences have contributed in various ways to the overarching idea of Bridgital as a means to address large and cross-cutting challenges, an idea I have been nurturing over the past five years.
I must thank Roopa, my co-author, who joined me in this journey of writing Bridgital Nation and developing the themes throughout.
I would like to thank Mr Ratan Tata for being an inspiration. He sets a precedent for visionary ideas, coupled with an unwavering set of values. He has embodied the Tatas’ pioneering spirit of building what the country needs, even when it is a difficult path to pursue.
For being an enormous source of strength, my thanks every day to my wife, Lalitha.
FROM BOTH THE AUTHORS
From the very beginning, this book has been a collaborative effort. Joshua Abraham led the research and analysis for the entire book. Rahul Bhatia edited and contributed with a critical eye to the argument and sound judgement on the writing process. Our thanks to Vishal Vaibhaw, Ameya Ashok Naik, Sumana Guha Ray, Anindya Roy, Nivedita Rao, Naman Narain and Caroline Vincent from the Tata macro research team for their involvement in every chapter—from numbers to documentation to research and interviews.
Thanks to the Penguin India team for their guidance throughout the making of this book, in particular our editors, Meru Gokhale and Richa Burman.
We are grateful to everyone who reviewed the manuscript. Special thanks to Dominic Wilson, R.K. Krishna Kumar, Gaurav Gupta, Harish Bhat and Pradipta Bagchi for valuable feedback.
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p; Unnati Tripathi, Tanya Loh, the TCS team in Kolar and Arjun Sharma of 101Reporters in Punjab contributed to the various narratives throughout the book. Partha P. Chakrabartty helped articulate some of the ideas in The Bridgital Transformation and implications for the future of work in India. We would also like to thank Katherine Boo for her guidance.
Vivek Pandit, Anu Madgavkar, Shishir Gupta and Himanshu Satija of McKinsey & Company worked closely with us to project the impact of Bridgital. Swetha Totapally, Kishan Shah, Patrick Quigley, Karishma Attari, Pritham Raja, Nergish Sunavala and Shreya Menon of Dalberg Advisors contributed to the chapters ‘XX Factor—The Talent Dividend’ and ‘Everywhere Entrepreneurship’.
For sharing perspectives, we are grateful to Dr Devi Shetty, Dr M.C. Misra, Dr G.N. Saxena, Dr C.S. Pramesh, Roshika Singh, Ravi Poddar, Sairee Chahal, Ashutosh Tandon, Anant Ahuja, Josh Foulger, Shashi Kalathil, Lisa Heydlauff, Clement Chauvet, and doctors and staff of the Cachar Cancer Hospital & Research Centre.
We made every effort to represent the data and our findings accurately. Any errors are our own.
We thank the Tata family. We worked closely with the TCS teams, led by Girish Krishnamurthy, that run DiNC in Kolar and other parts of India. Venguswamy Ramaswamy and his team at TCS iON shared valuable insight and experience. N.G. Subramaniam, COO of TCS, was a generous source of TCS institutional history. Tata STRIVE, Tata Global Beverages Limited and Tata Steel Limited provided much-needed assistance to our research on the ground. Project teams and sector experts at Tata Trusts offered unique insights from years of experience in the field. Various departments of Tata Sons Private Limited including Corporate Communications, Digital, HR, Legal, and the Company Secretary’s office provided timely and vital support. The Indian Hotels Company Limited showed us their legendary care and attention to detail on our many trips across the country. In our fieldwork, so many people and organizations welcomed us simply because the Tatas have been a part of their own history. The trust that the Tata Group has built over more than a century is truly unparalleled.