Avoiding Armageddon
Page 25
9. Ibid., p. 152.
10. On Bonk, see Dina Temple-Raston, “The War on Terror, Before the Shock Wore Off,” Washington Post, September 2, 2012, p. B1-4. I was present when Berger briefed Rice. See also Richard Clarke, Against All Enemies: Inside America’s War on Terror (New York: Free Press, 2004), p. 229.
11. Tenet, At the Center of the Storm, p. 141.
12. Author’s interview with George Tenet, June 1, 2012.
13. Author’s interview with Ambassador Chamberlin, August 24, 2010.
14. Zahid Hussain, Frontline Pakistan: The Struggle with Militant Islam (Columbia University Press, 2007), p. 43.
15. Author’s interview with Bob Grenier, May 18, 2010.
16. Pervez Musharraf, In the Line of Fire: A Memoir (London: Free Press, 2006), p. 202.
17. Ibid., p. 202.
18. Author’s interview with Pervez Musharraf, September 30, 2009.
19. The dispersal of al Qaeda and Taliban fighters in 2002 is covered best in Anne Stenersen, “Al Qaeda’s Allies: Explaining the Relationship between Al-Qaeda and Various Factions of the Taliban after 2001,” New America Foundation Counterterrorism Strategy Initiative Policy Paper, April 2010 (www.newamerica.net/publications/policy/al_qaeda_s_allies).
20. “State of the Taliban,” NATO TF 3-10, January 6, 2012, p. 9.
21. Author’s interview with Bob Grenier.
22. Lewis G. Irwin, Disjointed Ways, Disunified Means: Learning from America’s Struggle to Build an Afghan Nation (Carlisle, Pa.: U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, May 2012), p. 135.
23. Dov Zakheim, A Vulcan’s Tale: How the Bush Administration Mismanaged the Reconstruction of Afghanistan (Brookings, 2010), and Ronald Neumann, The Other War: Winning and Losing in Afghanistan (Washington: Potomac Books, 2009). Pakistan got far more military equipment—and more sophisticated equipment—than Afghanistan did.
24. Yaniv Barzilai, 102 Days of War: How Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda, and the Taliban Survived 2001 (2013, forthcoming).
25. The most detailed account so far of bin Laden’s odyssey after 2001 is Peter Bergen, Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for Bin Laden from 9/11 to Abbottabad (New York: Crown, 2012).
26. Bruce Riedel, Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America, and the Future of the Global Jihad (Brookings, 2012), p. x.
27. M. Ilyas Khan, “Osama bin Laden: The Night He Came for Dinner,” BBC New Magazine, May 1, 2012. The BBC report does not identify bin Laden’s host. A separate source in Pakistan confirmed that it was Khalil.
28. George Bush, Decision Points (New York: Crown, 2010), p. 213.
29. Stephen Cohen, P. R. Chari, and Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, Four Crises and a Peace Process: American Engagement in South Asia (Brookings, 2007), p. 152.
30. Author’s interview with Wendy Chamberlain.
31. Raymond E. Vickery Jr., The Eagle and the Elephant: Strategic Aspects of U.S.-India Engagement (Johns Hopkins Press, 2011), p. 116.
32. Cohen, Chari, and Cheema, Four Crises and a Peace Process, p. 166.
33. Vickery, The Eagle and the Elephant, p. 128.
34. Cohen, Chari, and Cheema, Four Crises and a Peace Process, p. 162.
35. It happened on my first day on the job at the White House as the director for South Asia affairs.
36. Tenet, At the Center of the Storm, p. 285.
37. International Institute for Strategic Studies, Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A. Q. Khan, and the Rise of Proliferation Networks (London: 2007), p. 22.
38. “Dictatorship Non-existent in Pakistan: U.S.,” Pakistan Tribune, April 1, 2006.
39. Helene Cooper and Mark Mazzetti, “Backstage, U.S. Nurtured Pakistan Rivals’ Deal,” New York Times, October 20, 2007.
40. “Report of the United Nations Commission of Inquiry into the Facts and Circumstances of the Assassination of Former Pakistani Prime Minister Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto” (United Nations), paragraph 205.
41. Ibid., paragraph 219.
42. Ibid., paragraph 208.
43. Ibid., executive summary.
44. Ibid., paragraph 218.
CHAPTER 7
1. Dov Zakheim, A Vulcan’s Tale: How the Bush Administration Mismanaged the Reconstruction of Afghanistan (Brookings, 2010). Pakistan got much more help from Bush than did Afghanistan.
2. Bob Woodward, Obama’s Wars (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2010). A wealth of other journalists’ accounts have filled in more of the details first laid out by Woodward. See, for example, David Sanger, Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (New York: Crown, 2012).
3. This conversation is recounted in David Klaidman, Kill or Capture: The War on Terror and the Soul of the Obama Presidency (New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2012), p. 43.
4. Mitchell D. Silber, The Al Qaeda Factor: Plots against the West (University of Pennsylvania Press, 2012), pp. 152–65.
5. Bin Laden’s threat was included later in a long al Qaeda video on the Christmas Day attack entitled “The Final Trap.”
6. Gregory D. Johnson, The Last Refuge: Yemen, Al Qaeda, and America’s War in Arabia (New York: Norton, 2012), p. 260. Abdulmutallab told the investigators in Detroit that al-Awlaki instructed him in how to conduct the operation and provided him with the bomb. I served as an expert witness to the prosecution.
7. Sanger, Confront and Conceal, p. 244.
8. See New American Foundation, “The Year of the Drone: An Analysis of U.S. Drone Strikes in Pakistan, 2004–2012.” The analysis is periodically updated (http://counterterrorism.newamerica.net/drones).
9. Joby Warwick, The Triple Agent: The Al Qaeda Mole Who Infiltrated the CIA (New York: Doubleday, 2011).
10. Alan Kronstadt, “Direct Overt U.S. Aid Appropriations and Military Reimbursements to Pakistan, FY 2002–FY 2013,” Congressional Research Service, totals the aid disbursed at $25,379,000. Weapons systems provided included the 18 F-16s, 8 P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft, 6,000 TOW anti-tank missiles, 500 AMRAM air-to-air missiles, 6 C-130 transport aircraft, 20 Cobra attack helicopters, and a Perry-class missile frigate. About half the $25 billion was disbursed by Bush and half by Obama. The Obama total includes more economic aid due to the Kerry-Lugar bill.
11. Mark Owen and Keven Maurer, No Easy Day: The Firsthand Account of the Mission That Killed Osama bin Laden (New York: Dutton, 2012), 173.
12. Cyril Almeida, “The Emperors’ Clothes,” Dawn, May 6, 2011 (http://dawn.com/2011/05/06/the-emperors-clothes/).
13. Author’s interview with Hina Rabbani Khar, September 15, 2012.
14. “Osama bin Laden Death: Afghanistan Had Abbottabad Lead Four Years Ago,” The Guardian, May 5, 2011.
15. I am indebted to my Brookings colleague Vanda Felbab Brown for her research in Indonesia in October 2012 on Umar Patek, which helped clarify what remains a murky issue.
16. Husain Haqqani, Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military (Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005).
17. David Ignatius, “Diplomacy That Needs Some Therapy,” Washington Post, July 15, 2012, p. A21.
18. Ibid.
19. Peter Bergen, Manhunt (New York: Crown, 2012), p. 226.
20. “Haqqani Sought U.S. Help for COAS Gen. Kayani’s Removal,” Pakistan Defence Blog, n.d. (www.pakarmedforces.com/2012/02/haqqani-sought-us-help-for-coas.html).
21. “Pakistani Public Opinion Ever More Critical of U.S.” (Washington: Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project, June 27, 2012).
22. Pamela Constable, Playing with Fire: Pakistan at War with Itself (New York: Random House, 2011), p. 255.
23. Jonathan E. Hillman, “A Cold Shoulder from India,” Los Angeles Times, June 12, 2012.
24. Amir Latif, “U.S.-India Defense Trade: Opportunities for Deepening the Partnership” (Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 2012).
25. Author’s interviews with British officials, October 2012.
26. “Joint Statement on the Third U.S.-India Strategic Dialogue,” U.S. Department o
f State, Office of the Spokesperson, June 13, 21012.
CHAPTER 8
1. See, for example, Ahmed Rashid, Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan (New York: Viking, 2012); Stephen Cohen, The Future of Pakistan (Brookings, 2011); Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan: Beyond the Crisis State (Oxford University Press, 2011); and Pamela Constable, Playing with Fire: Pakistan at War with Itself (New York: Random House, 2011).
2. Nadeem Hotiana, “Sunday Dialogue: Pakistan-Afghan Options,” New York Times, November 4, 2012.
3. Steve Coll, “Sporting Chance: Can a Sex Symbol and Cricket Legend Run Pakistan?” New Yorker, August 13 and 20, 2012.
4. All the military figures are from International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance (2012).
5. Iskandar Rehman, “Drowning Stability: The Perils of Naval Nuclearization and Brinkmanship in the Indian Ocean,” Naval War College Review, vol. 65, no. 4 (Autumn 2012).
6. Paul Kerr and Mary Beth Nikitin, “Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons: Proliferation and Security Issues” (Congressional Research Service, June 26, 2012).
7. See, for example, James Blight and Janet Lang, The Armageddon Letters: Kennedy/Khruschev/Castro in the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: Rowman and Littlefield, 2012).
8. George Tenet, At the Center of the Storm: My Years at the CIA (New York: Harper Collins, 2007).
9. Banyan, “Nuclear Profusion,” The Economist, August 25, 2012, p. 33.
10. See Polly Nayak and Michael Krepon, “U.S. Crisis Management and South Asia’s Twin Peaks Crisis” (Washington: Stimson Center, 2006), and Nayak and Krepon, “The Unfinished Crisis: U.S. Crisis Management after the 2008 Mumbai Attack” (Washington: Stimson Center, 2012).
11. “India and Its Near Abroad,” The Economist, February 18, 2012.
12. Salman Masood, “India and Pakistan Sign Visa Agreement, Easing Travel,” New York Times, September 9, 2012.
13. Rohit Viswanath, “Investing in Peace,” Issue Brief, Wadhwani Chair in India-U.S. Policy Studies (Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 8, 2012).
14. Larry Hanauer and Peter Chalk, “India’s and Pakistan’s Strategies in Afghanistan: Implications for the United States and the Region (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 2012).
15. Ronald E. Neuman, The Other War: Winning and Losing in Afghanistan (Washington: Potomac Books, 2009).
16. Gary Schroen, First In: An Insider’s Account of How the CIA Spearheaded the War on Terror in Afghanistan (New York: Ballantine, 2005), pp. 1, 120.
17. Howard B. Schaffer, The Limits of Influence: America’s Role in Kashmir (Washington: Brookings. 2009), p. 2.
18. Ibid., pp. ix–x.
19. William Milam, “Factors Shaping the Future,” in The Future of Pakistan, edited by Stephen Cohen (Brookings, 2011).
INDEX
Personal names starting with al are alphabetized by the following part of the name.
Abbot, John, 146
Abdullah II, 128, 137–38
Abdulmutallab, Umar Farouk, 168
Abu Jindal (Sayeed Zabiuddin Ansari), 8–9, 179
Acheson, Dean, 50
Afghanistan: and AFPAK strategy, 164–65, 180; border issues for, 89, 191–92; civil war in, 112–13, 117–18; McChrystal report on, 162; and 9/11 terrorist attacks, 137; and proxy war with Pakistan, 81–82; Soviet invasion of, 84, 86, 90–92, 95–96; supply lines to, 24–25; Taliban in, 81, 89, 137–38, 145, 175, 193–95; and trade assistance, 191
AFPAK strategy, 164–65, 180
Agni missiles, 185
Ahmed, Mahmud: and Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, 110, 136, 140; and Kargil war, 130, 131; and Musharraf, 129, 144; and Omar, 143–44; U.S. visit of, 142–43
Ahmedzay, Zarein, 167–68
Air India flight 814 hijacking (1999), 140–41
Akbar the Great, 29
Akhtar Abdur Rahman, 88, 90, 94, 96, 99
Albright, Madeleine, 120, 123
Ali, Tariq, 101
al Qaeda: al Qaeda al Umm, 163; and American embassy attacks (1998), 125; and Azzam, 15; and Bhutto (Benazir) assassination, 158; and CIA, 141–42; and Headley, 9–10, 13; and Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, 2, 19–20, 24–25, 163; and Mumbai attack, 13–14; and 9/11 terrorist attacks, 137; and nuclear weapons, 187; in Pakistan, 167–77; and planned New York City subway system attack, 167–68; and Taliban, 126–28, 143, 163
American Revolution, 32
Amritsar (Operation Blue Star), 101
Anderson, Jack, 71
Andersen, Walter, xiv, 119–20
Ansari, Sayeed Zabiuddin. See Abu Jindal
Arafat, Yasir, 68, 86
Area of responsibility (AOR), 46, 82
Armitage, Richard, 143, 150, 151
Army of the Pure. See Lashkar-e-Tayyiba
al-Asiri, Ibrahim, 168
Awami League, 72, 75, 77
al-Awlaki, Anwar, 168
Ayub, Gohar, 123
Azhar, Maulana Masood, 110, 141
Azzam, Abdullah, 14–15, 17, 19, 169
Baba, Ghazi, 148
Babur, 29
Baker, James, 117
Bandar bin Sultan, 136
Bangladesh, independence of, 72, 77
Barak, Ehud, 178
Bari, Maulana Abdul, 93
The Bear Trap: Afghanistan’s Untold Story (Yousaf), 93
Berger, Sandy, 120, 123, 132, 142
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), 22–23, 119–21
Bhutto, Benazir: assassination of, 158–59, 171; and Bush (George W.), 114; and Clinton (Bill), 115, 118; and Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, 156; election of, 106–08, 184; and Kargil war, 130, 134; and Kashmir insurgency, 109, 111; and Khan (A. Q.), 155–56; and Musharraf, 157–58; and Nawaz (Asif), 113; and Taliban, 117–18
Bhutto, Murtaza, 107
Bhutto, Shahnawaz, 106–07
Bhutto, Zulfikar: and Carter, 83; and Kashmir, 63; and Pakistan People’s Party, 72; and U.S. relations, 66, 67–68, 77–78; and Zia, 84–85, 140
Biden, Joe, 14, 161, 166
bin Laden, Osama: and al Qaeda, 125, 127; and Azzam, 15; and Bhutto (Benazir), 108; and Clinton (Bill), 134; death of, 14, 170, 193; and Harakat ul-Mujahedin, 140; hunt for, 146–47, 148, 167, 170–73, 175; and Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, 19, 126; and Mumbai attack, 10–11; and 9/11 terrorist attacks, 137–38; and Omar, 137, 144; and Pakistan, 184, 201; on planned terrorist attacks, 168; and Saeed, 175; and Sharif, 112
BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), 22–23, 119–21
Blackouts, electrical, 3–4
Black September, 86
Blackwill, Robert, 149–50, 151
Blair, Dennis, 161
Blood, Archer, 73
Blood telegram, 73–74
Bonk, Ben, 142
Bose, Subhas Chandra, 40
Braddock, Edward, 32
Brennan, John, 167
Brooke, Alan, 41
Brookings Institution: and Pakistani economic progress, 190; on poverty in India, 3
Brown, Hank, 117
Brown amendment, 117
Brzezinski, Zbigniew, 95
Bush, George H. W.: election of, 102; on India, 76–77; and Pakistan betrayed, 105–14; and Pakistani nuclear program, 98; and South Asia policy, 182
Bush, George W., 137–60; and drone attacks, 169, 171; and India and Pakistan at brink of war, 148–51; and Mumbai attack, 23; and Musharraf and “war on terrorism,” 139–48; and nuclear deal, 151–60; and South Asia policy, 182
Byman, Dan, xiv
Cameron, David, 26
Carlucci, Frank, 99
Carter, Jimmy, 82–86, 157. See also Carter and Reagan years
Carter, Lillian, 83
Cartoons of Mohammad, 9
Casey, Bill, 96–97, 98, 100, 102
Catherine of Braganza, 30
Cell phones, 5, 8
CENTCOM (U.S. Central Command), 81–82
Center for Preaching and Guidance (Markaz-ud-Dawa-wal-Irshad), 17
CENTO. See Central Trea
ty Organization
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA): and Afghanistan assistance, 95–96; and al Qaeda attack, 141–42, 170; and assassination of Indira Gandhi, 101; and bin Laden’s death, 14; and Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, 91; and East Pakistan, 77; and Indian nuclear testing, 79, 121; and Kargil war, 130; and Khan (Ayub), 56; and Pakistani secret intelligence base, 64; and Stinger missile system, 98; Yousaf on, 93
Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), 55, 56, 64, 69
Chabad house (Mumbai), 2, 6, 8
Chamberlin, Wendy, 143, 149
Charles II, 30
Cheney, Dick, 157
Child, Julia, 41
China: aid to Afghans, 91; and India’s nuclear testing, 122; invasion of India (1962), 59–62, 65; and Kashmir, 196; and Pakistani relations, 64, 67, 74–75, 77, 201; on Security Council, 51, 59
Christianity, 34–35
Churchill, Winston, 39, 40–43, 45
CIA. See Central Intelligence Agency
Civil Nuclear Agreement (U.S.-India), 152
Civil War (U.S.), 34, 37–38
Clinton, Bill: and domestic economy, 113–15; first term of, 114–18; and Israeli-Indian military entente, 178; and Kargil war, 23, 128–35; South Asia visit by, 1, 135–36; and Talbott mission, 123–28; and year of change (1998), 118–23
Clinton, Hillary: and civil nuclear agreement, 154; and Holbrooke, 164; and Indian relations, 179; India visit of, 115; and National Security Council, 161; and Pakistani relations, 173, 175; on women under Taliban, 118
Clive, Robert, 31–32
Cold Start doctrine, 22
Cold war, 45–80; end of, 105; Ford and nuclear weapons, 79–80; Johnson and Second Indo-Pakistani War, 65–70; Kennedy and India, 57–65, 80; Nixon, Indira Gandhi, and 1971 War, 70–79, 80; Truman and Eisenhower, 48–57, 80; and U.S. relations with Pakistan and India, 82
Columbus, Christopher, xi, 28
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), 122, 124–25, 128, 135, 152
Congress of Vienna (1814–15), 33
Congress Party (India), 42, 69
Cornwallis, Charles, 31
Cricket, 16, 102, 188
Crocker, Ryan, 157
Crusader-Zionist-Hindu alliance, 11, 13
CTBT. See Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
Cuban missile crisis (1962), 60–61, 186