The Emperor’s New Road: China and the Project of the Century

by Jonathan E. Hillman

  14. Harry S. Truman, “Inaugural Address,” January 20, 1949, Avalon Project, accessed February 4, 2020, https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/truman.asp.

  15. Mussarat Jabeen and Muhammad Saleem Mazhar, “Security Game: SEATO and CENTO as Instrument of Economic and Military Assistance to Encircle Pakistan,” Pakistan Economic and Social Review 49, no. 1 (Summer 2011): 109–132, https://www.jstor.org/stable/41762426.

  16. “East-West Teamwork Goes on Trial in Pakistan,” Businessweek, June 30, 1956, 99.

  17. John O. Bell, “Chief of U.S. Operations Mission, ICA 29 Karachi (1955–1957),” in Pakistan: Country Reader (Arlington, VA: Association for Diplomatic Studies, 2018), 29, https://adst.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Pakistan.pdf.

  18. Paul Beckett to David Bell, November 23–25, 1960, Ford Foundation Archives, Rockefeller Archive Center, Sleepy Hollow, NY.

  19. Adam Curle, Planning for Education in Pakistan (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1966), 1.

  20. David Bell, “Interview with David E. Bell for the Ford Foundation Oral History Project,” interview by Charles T. Morrissey and Ronald J. Grele, New York, November 16, 1972, Ford Foundation Archives, Rockefeller Archive Center, Sleepy Hollow, NY.

  21. Albert Waterson, Planning in Pakistan (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1963), 114, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/766851468758721256/pdf/multi0page.pdf.

  22. David E. Bell, “Allocating Development Resources: Some Observations Based on Pakistan Experience,” Public Policy 9 (1959): 93–94.

  23. Gustav Papanek, interview by author, January 26, 2019.

  24. Papanek.

  25. George Rosen, Western Economists and Eastern Societies: Agents of Change in South Asia (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985), 63.

  26. Rosen, 136.

  27. Forrest F. Hill, Office files, Box 1, Folder 2, International division, Ford Foundation Archives.

  28. Director of Central Intelligence, “Probable Developments in Pakistan,” National Intelligence Estimate, no. 52-56, November 13, 1956, https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP79R01012A007900030001-3.pdf.

  29. Hill, Office files.

  30. J. Bell, “Chief of U.S. Operations Mission,” 30–31.

  31. “Letter from the Ambassador in Pakistan (Langley) to the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern, South Asian, and African Affairs (Rountree),” December 27, 1957, Office of the Historian, Department of State, accessed April 19, 2019, https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1955-57v08/d224.

  32. Dennis Kux, “Economic Office Karachi (1957–1960); Political Office Islamabad (1969–1971),” in Pakistan: Country Reader, 55.

  33. “Excerpts from Ayub’s Address to Congress Warning against Foreign-Aid Cut,” New York Times, July 13, 1961, https://www.nytimes.com/1961/07/13/archives/excerpts-from-ayubs-address-to-congress-warning-against-foreignaid.html.

  34. Azeem Ibrahim, U.S. Aid to Pakistan—U.S. Taxpayers Have Funded Pakistani Corruption (Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2009), https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/Final_DP_2009_06_08092009.pdf.

  35. World Bank, “Pakistan, GDP (Current US $),” World Bank Open Data, accessed April 19, 2019, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=PK.

  36. Papanek, Pakistan’s Development, 87.

  37. J. Bell, “Chief of U.S. Operations Mission,” 30–31.

  38. Office of the Historian, Department of State, “The India-Pakistan War of 1965,” Office of the Historian, Department of State, accessed April 19, 2019, https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/india-pakistan-war.

  39. Ghlulam Ali, China-Pakistan Relations: A Historical Analysis (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016), 55.

  40. Mohammad Ayub Khan, Friends Not Masters: A Political Autobiography (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 1967), 158–159.

  41. John F. Copper, China’s Foreign Aid and Investment Diplomacy, vol. 2 (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015), 202.

  42. Muhammad Mumtaz Khalid, History of the Karakoram Highway, 2 vols. (Rawalpindi, Pakistan: Hamza Pervez, 2006–2009), 2:2.

  43. Khalid, 2:5.

  44. Khalid, 2:22.

  45. Barry Naughton, “The Third Front: Defence Industrialisation in the Chinese Interior,” China Quarterly 115 (September 1988): 351–386, http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=3546864.

  46. Khalid, History of the Karakoram Highway, 2:14.

  47. Khalid, 1:320.

  48. Khalid, 2:16, 23.

  49. Khalid, 2:12.

  50. Khalid, 2:42.

  51. Khalid, 2:22.

  52. Khalid, 2:172.

  53. “Keng Piao Visits Pakistan and Sri Lanka,” Peking Review, July 7, 1978, 3, http://massline.org/PekingReview/PR1978/PR1978-27.pdf.

  54. “Documents March–August 1978,” Pakistan Horizon 31, nos. 2–3 (1978): 232–274, https://www.jstor.org/stable/41393590.

  55. Tim Craig, “Pakistan’s Route to China Sees Ferrymen’s Livelihoods Dry Up,” Guardian, October 12, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/12/landslide-closed-road-ferry-pakistan-china.

  56. “Nawaz Inaugurates Rs144bn Havelian-Thakot Motorway in Mansehra,” Dawn, April 28, 2016, https://www.dawn.com/news/1255003.

  57. Office of the Historian, U.S. Department of State, “Memorandum of Conversation, Washington, September 18, 1973, 11 a.m.–12:45 p.m.,” September 18, 1973, https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76ve08/d147.

  58. U.S. Department of State, telegram from US Embassy Islamabad to Secretary of State, January 11, 1974, Richard Nixon Presidential Archives, Yorba Linda, CA.

  59. Office of the Historian, U.S. Department of State, “Memorandum of Conversation, Washington, September 19, 1973, 10–11:05 a.m.,” September 19, 1973, https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76ve08/d148.

  60. Henry Kissinger, memorandum for the president, “Your Second Meeting with Prime Minister Bhutto, Wednesday, September 19, 10:00 a.m., 1973,” September 19, 1973, Nixon Presidential Archives.

  61. Kissinger.

  62. See, for example, Daniel S. Markey, No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013); Dennis Kux, The United States and Pakistan, 1947–2000: Disenchanted Allies (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001); and Husain Haqqani, Magnificent Delusions: Pakistan, the United States, and an Epic History of Misunderstanding (New York: PublicAffairs, 2013).

  63. Haqqani, Magnificent Delusions, 6.

  64. National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States, The 9/11 Commission Report (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2004), https://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report.pdf.

  65. U.S. Agency for International Development, Department of State, and Department of Defense, “Quarterly Progress and Oversight Report on the Civilian Assistance Program in Pakistan,” Reliefweb, December 31, 2010, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/CB0B64A77D433E0485257833006BA5C2-Full_Report.pdf.

  66. U.S. House of Representatives, “Pakistan Assistance Strategy Report,” December 14, 2009, https://propublica.s3.amazonaws.com/assets/pakistan_contracts/121409_Pakistan_assistance_strategy%20reportFINAL.pdf?_ga=2.157913530.1071857353.1546874721-1561684278.1546874721/.

  67. U.S. House of Representatives, 2.

  68. Starr even shaped the “Silk Road Strategy Act,” congressional legislation sponsored by Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas in 1999 and 2006 that aimed to target assistance to support the economic and political independence of Central Asia and South Caucasus countries. U.S. Congress, “Silk Road Strategy Act of 2006,” 109th Congress, 2005–2006, https://www.congress.gov/bill/109th-congress/senate-bill/2749/all-info; see also S. Frederick Starr and Andrew C. Kuchins, The Key to Success in Afghanistan: A Modern Silk Road Strategy (Washington, DC: Central Asia–Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, 2010), https://www.silkroadstudies.org
/resources/pdf/SilkRoadPapers/2010_05_SRP_StarrKuchins_Success-Afghanistan.pdf.

  69. Hillary Rodham Clinton, “Remarks on India and the United States: A Vision for the 21st Century” (speech, Chennai, India, July 20, 2011), U.S. Department of State, July 20, 2011, https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2011/07/168840.htm.

  70. “The Great Endgame,” Economist, July 22, 2010, https://www.economist.com/asia/2010/07/22/the-great-endgame.

  71. U.S. Department of State, “U.S. Support for the New Silk Road,” accessed February 4, 2020, https://2009-2017.state.gov/p/sca/ci/af/newsilkroad/index.htm.

  72. Hillary Rodham Clinton, “Remarks at the New Silk Road Ministerial” (speech, New York City, NY, September 11, 2011), U.S. Department of State, September 11, 2011, https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2011/09/173807.htm.

  73. USAID, “U.S. Foreign Aid by Country: Pakistan,” accessed February 2, 2020, https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/PAK?measure=Obligations&fiscal_year=2017&implementing_agency_id=1.

  74. Barack Obama, “Remarks by President Obama in Address to the People of India,” New Delhi, India, January 27, 2015, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/01/27/remarks-president-obama-address-people-india.

  75. Nancy Birdsall, Wren Elhai, and Molly Kinder, Beyond Bullets and Bombs: Fixing the U.S. Approach to Development in Pakistan (Washington, DC: Center for Global Development, June 2011), https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/1425136_file_CGD_Pakistan_FINAL_web.pdf.

  76. Anum Pasha, “Unmasking USAID Pakistan’s Elite Stakeholder Discourses: Towards an Evaluation of the Agency’s Development Interventions” (Media@LSE MSc Dissertation Series, London School of Economics, 2017), http://www.lse.ac.uk/media-and-communications/assets/documents/research/msc-dissertations/2016/Dissertation-Anum-Pasha.pdf.

  77. Office of Inspector General, USAID, “Competing Priorities Have Complicated USAID/Pakistan’s Efforts to Achieve Long-Term Development under EPPA,” September 8, 2016, https://oig.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/2018-06/g-391-16-003-p_0.pdf.

  78. Office of Inspector General.

  79. Office of Inspector General.

  80. In a separate study, researchers at the University of Oxford, after considering the likelihood of delays and cost overruns, concluded that the project is “a non-starter.” “This is without even discussing potential effects of inflation and interest rates, potential social and environmental costs, and opportunity cost Pakistan could earn by committing such vast amount of capital to more prudent investments,” they cautioned. Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, “Should We Build More Large Dams? The Actual Costs of Hydropower Megaproject Development,” Energy Policy, March 2014, 13, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2406852.

  81. AidData, William and Mary College, “China’s Global Development Footprint,” accessed February 4, 2020, https://www.aiddata.org/china-official-finance.

  82. Irfan Haider and Mateen Haider, “Economic Corridor in Focus as Pakistan, China Sign 51 MOUs,” Dawn, April 20, 2015, https://www.dawn.com/news/1177109.

  83. Nadia Naviwala, “Pakistan’s $100B Deal with China: What Does It Amount To?,” Devex, August 24, 2017, https://www.devex.com/news/pakistan-s-100b-deal-with-china-what-does-it-amount-to-90872.

  84. Associated Press, “China-Driven Silk Road Project Hits Political, Financial Hurdles,” Dawn, January 12, 2018, https://www.dawn.com/news/1382334.

  85. Abid Hussain, “The Mega-Dam Being Crowdfunded by Pakistan’s Top Judge,” BBC Urdu, October 30, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45968574; “Akon Voices Support for Diamer-Bhasha Dam Fund,” Daily Times Monitor, January 16, 2019, https://dailytimes.com.pk/344693/akon-voices-support-for-diamer-bhasha-dam-fund/.

  86. Ministry of Water Resources, “Diamer Basha Dam Project,” accessed February 4, 2020, https://mowr.gov.pk/index.php/diamer-basha-dam-project/; Supreme Court of Pakistan, “Fund Raising Status for the Supreme Court of Pakistan and the Prime Minister of Pakistan Diamer-Bhasha and Mohmand Dams Fund,” April 19, 2019, http://www.supremecourt.gov.pk/web/page.asp?id=2757.

  87. Saeed Shah, “Pakistan Requests IMF Bailout Talks,” Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/pakistan-to-hold-bailout-talks-with-imf-1539018792; International Monetary Fund, “Pakistan: History of Lending Arrangements,” April 30, 2018, https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/extarr2.aspx?memberKey1=760&date1key=2018-04-30; International Monetary Fund, “SDR Valuation,” April 16, 2019, https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/data/rms_sdrv.aspx.

  88. Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, “Statement from Chinese Embassy,” December 29, 2018, https://pk.chineseembassy.org/eng/zbgx/CPEC/t1625941.htm; Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, “Financing Run Down of 22 CPEC Projects,” December 29, 2018, https://pk.chineseembassy.org/eng/zbgx/CPEC/t1625940.htm.

  89. Arif Rafiq, “The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: The Lure of Easy Financing and the Perils of Poor Planning,” Asian Affairs 50, no. 2 (2019): 236–248.

  90. Husain, “Exclusive: CPEC Master Plan Revealed.”

  91. Saeed Shah, “Pakistan Turns to China in Energy Binge,” Wall Street Journal, December 18, 2016, https://www.wsj.com/articles/pakistan-turns-to-china-in-energy-binge-1482062404; Jeremy Page and Saeed Shah, “China’s Global Building Spree Runs into Trouble in Pakistan,” Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-global-building-spree-runs-into-trouble-in-pakistan-1532280460.

  92. Ali, China-Pakistan Relations, 189.

  93. “Gwadar Port: ‘History-Making Milestones,’ ” Dawn, April 14, 2008, https://www.dawn.com/news/297994/gwadar-port; CPECWire, “Timeline: The History of CPEC,” accessed February 4, 2020, https://cpecwire.com/cpec-history-timeline/.

  94. “‘Today Marks Dawn of a New Era’: CPEC Dreams Come True as Gwadar Port Goes Operational,” Dawn, November 13, 2016, https://www.dawn.com/news/1296098/today-marks-dawn-of-new-era-cpec-dreams-come-true-as-gwadar-port-goes-operational.

  95. “Pakistan’s Gwadar Port Sees First Container Vessel, a Milestone for Belt and Road Initiative,” Hellenic Shipping News, October 3, 2018, https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/pakistans-gwadar-port-sees-first-container-vessel-a-milestone-for-belt-and-road-initiative/.

  96. International Crisis Group, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Opportunities and Risks, Asia Report 297 (Brussels: International Crisis Group, June 29, 2018), https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/pakistan/297-china-pakistan-economic-corridor-opportunities-and-risks.

  97. Adnan Aamir, “China’s Belt and Road Plans Dismay Pakistan’s Poorest Province,” Financial Times, June 14, 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/c4b78fe0-5399-11e8-84f4-43d65af59d43.

  98. Meher Ahmad and Salman Masood, “Chinese Presence in Pakistan Is Targeted in Strike on Consulate in Karachi,” New York Times, November 23, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/23/world/asia/pakistan-karachi-attack-chinese-consulate.html.

  99. Small, China-Pakistan Axis, 115.

  100. Helena Legarda and Meia Nouwens, “Guardians of the Belt and Road: The Internationalization of China’s Private Security Companies,” Mercator Institute for China Studies, August 16, 2018, https://www.merics.org/en/china-monitor/guardians-of-belt-and-road.

  101. Others expect China to build a separate facility in nearby Jiwani. See, for example, “China Plans New Naval Base in Pakistan,” Maritime Executive, January 8, 2018, https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/china-plans-new-naval-base-in-pakistan.

  102. Farhan Bokhari and Kathrin Hille, “Pakistan Turns to China for Naval Base,” Financial Times, May 22, 2011, https://www.ft.com/content/3914bd36-8467-11e0-afcb-00144feabdc0.

  103. See, for example, “China Denies Plans to Set Up Military Base in Pakistan,” Economic Times, January 9, 2018, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-denies-plans-to-set-up-military-base-in-pakistan/articleshow/62427995.cms; “China Did Not Ask for Milit
ary Access to Gwadar, Says Pakistani Admiral,” Economic Times, October 26, 2018, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-not-asked-for-military-access-to-gwadar-pakistan-admiral-says/articleshow/66375908.cms?from=mdr.

  104. Office of the Historian, U.S. Department of State, “Telegram 2213 from the Embassy in Pakistan to the Department of State, March 10, 1972, 0725Z1,” March 10, 1972, https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76ve07/d235.

  105. Sushant Sareen, Corridor Calculus: China Pakistan Economic Corridor and China’s Comprador Investment Model in Pakistan (New Delhi: Vivekanada International Foundation, 2016), https://www.vifindia.org/sites/default/files/corridor-calculus-china-pakistan-economic-corridor-and-china-s-comprador-investment-model-in-pakistan.pdf.

  106. Zafar Bhutta, “From Gwadar-Kashgar: Crude Oil Pipeline Requires $10 Billion Investment,” Express Tribune, May 18, 2018, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1712888/2-gwadar-kashgar-crude-oil-pipeline-requires-10-billion-investment/.

  107. Gateway House, “Gwadar: Trade Hub or Military Asset?—Analysis,” Eurasia Review, February 8, 2019, https://www.eurasiareview.com/08022019-gwadar-trade-hub-or-military-asset-analysis/.

  108. Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “China’s Oil Security Pipe Dream: The Reality, and Strategic Consequences, of Seaborne Imports,” Naval War College Review 63, no. 2 (Spring 2010): 88–111; Guy C. K. Leung, “China’s Energy Security: Perception and Reality,” Energy Policy 39, no. 3 (2011): 1330–1337.

  109. “PR and CRCC to Cooperate on (ML) II (Kotri-Attock Line) and ML III (Rohri Chaman Line) Projects,” Times International News Service, May 10, 2018, https://tns.world/pr-and-crcc-to-cooperate-on-ml-ii-kotri-attock-line-and-ml-iii-rohri-chaman-line-projects/.

  110. Sayed Munaway Shah, “1st Meeting of Railway Working Group,” CAREC, November 24, 2015, https://web.archive.org/web/20160803101654/https:/www.carecprogram.org/uploads/events/2015/035-Railway-WG-Meeting/Presentation-Materials/Day-1/2015-RWG-Meeting-P07_PPresentation%20by%20PAK_EN.pdf.

  111. Amin Yusufzai, “Rail Connectivity of Gwadar with Other Parts of Pakistan Not a Priority: Officials,” ProPakistani, April 6, 2019, https://propakistani.pk/2019/04/06/rail-connectivity-of-gwadar-with-other-parts-of-pakistan-not-a-priority-officials/.