The Emperor’s New Road: China and the Project of the Century

by Jonathan E. Hillman

  94. Edith Mutehya, “Kenya and Huawei Sign Agreement for Digital Transformation,” China Daily, May 16, 2017, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2017-05/16/content_29372143.htm.

  95. World Bank, The Economics of Rail Gauge in the East Africa Community (Washington, DC: World Bank 2013), https://africog.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/World-bank-Report-on-the-Standard-Gauge-Railway.pdf.

  96. Uhuru Kenyatta, “Speech at the Jamhuri Day 50th Independence Anniversary Celebrations,” Nairobi, Kenya, December 12, 2013, http://www.kenyabrussels.com/ckfinder/userfiles/files/news%20&%20events/2013/Pres_Kenyatta_speech_50th_Anniversary.pdf.

  97. Victor Wahome, “Impact of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and Lapsset Development Corridor to the Kenyan Economy,” Kenya Railway Corporation, March 26, 2015, https://web.archive.org/web/20160705134949/http://www.isk.or.ke/userfiles/SGR_Presentation_March_2015.pdf; A. Dreher, A. Fuchs, B. C. Parks, A. M. Strange, and M. J. Tierney, “China EXIM Bank Loans USD 1.633B for Nairobi-Mombasa Railway Section (Link to Project #31777 and #47025),” AidData, 2017, https://china.aiddata.org/projects/37103.

  98. Office of the President of the Republic of Kenya, “President Kenyatta Delivers the SGR, His Biggest Promise to Kenyans,” May 31, 2017, http://www.president.go.ke/2017/05/31/president-kenyatta-delivers-the-sgr-his-biggest-promise-to-kenyans/.

  99. Paul Wafula, “Revealed: SGR Workers Treated Badly by Chinese Masters,” Standard Media, July 8, 2018, https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001287179/revealed-sgr-workers-treated-badly-by-chinese-masters.

  100. Xinhua, “Kenya’s New Railway Builds Ties between Ordinary Kenyans, Chinese,” Xinhuanet, June 17, 2018, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-06/17/c_137260738.htm.

  101. Lily Kuo, “Kenya’s $3.2 Billion Nairobi-Mombasa Rail Line Opens with Help from China,” Quartz Africa, June 2, 2017, https://qz.com/africa/996255/kenyas-3-2-billion-nairobi-mombasa-rail-line-opens-with-help-from-china/; Xinhua, “Experts Envisage Integrated High Speed Railway Network in Africa,” China.org.cn, April 10, 2019, http://www.china.org.cn/world/Off_the_Wire/2019-04/10/content_74667099.htm.

  102. Quoted in Miller, Lunatic Express, Kindle loc. 4761–4790.

  103. Quoted in Miller, Kindle loc. 5668.

  104. Njuguna Ndung’u, “M-Pesa—A Success Story of Digital Financial Inclusion” (Practitioner’s Insight, University of Oxford Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford, UK, July 2017), https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2018-06/2017-07-M-Pesa-Practitioners-Insight.pdf.

  105. Duncan Miriri, “Kenya’s Safaricom FY Earnings Jump on Upbeat M-Pesa Growth,” Business Report, May 4, 2019, https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/international/kenyas-safaricom-fy-earnings-jump-on-upbeat-m-pesa-growth-22440491.

  106. Cynthia Ilako, “Mobile Cash Transactions Averaged Sh15 Million per Minute in 2018,” Star, April 2, 2018, https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/2019-04-02-mobile-cash-transactions-averaged-sh15-million-per-minute-in-2018/.

  107. For the projected share, see Japan International Cooperation Agency, Project for Master Plan on Logistics in Northern Economic Corridor: Final Report, Annex—Data Book (Nairobi: Japan International Cooperation Agency, March 2017), https://www.works.go.ug/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EI-JR17053-NECMP-DB-vol1-01.pdf.

  108. Patrick Beja, “State Orders Ship Agents to Transport Goods on SGR,” Standard Media, February 24, 2018, https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001270942/state-orders-ship-agents-to-transport-goods-on-sgr.

  109. World Bank, Africa Transport Unit, “The Economics of Rail Gauge in the East Africa Community,” August 8, 2013, https://africog.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/World-bank-Report-on-the-Standard-Gauge-Railway.pdf.

  110. George Omondi, “Kenya to Start Repaying the Sh319bn SGR Loan in 2023,” Business Daily Africa, August 9, 2017, https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/shipping/Kenya-start-repaying-Sh319bn-SGR-2023/4003122-4051318-s1paamz/index.html.

  111. “Report: Kenya Risks Losing Port of Mombasa to China.”

  112. Claire Munde, “China Will Not Take Over Port of Mombasa, Ignore Propaganda—Uhuru,” Star, December 29, 2018, https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018-12-29-china-will-not-take-over-port-of-mombasa-ignore-propaganda-uhuru/; George Omondi, “Mombasa Port at Risk as Audit Finds It Was Used to Secure SGR Loan,” East African, December 20, 2018, https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Mombasa-port-SGR-loan-default-Chinsa/2560-4903360-clh5nn/index.html.

  113. U.S. Department of State, Bureau of African Affairs, “U.S. Relations with Kenya,” September 4, 2018, https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-kenya/.

  114. James Baraza, “Lamu Port Hits Key Milestone with First Berth Completion,” Construction Kenya, August 29, 2019, https://www.constructionkenya.com/5293/lamu-port-project/.

  115. Joseph Kahn, “China Has an Ancient Mariner to Tell You About,” New York Times, July 20, 2005, https://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/20/world/asia/china-has-an-ancient-mariner-to-tell-you-about.html.

  116. Charles Clover, “South China Sea Island-Maker Seeks Foreign Flotation,” Financial Times, June 11, 2015, https://www.ft.com/content/2bd0b16a-0f51-11e5-897e-00144feabdc0.

  117. Otsieno Namwaya and Aditi Shetty, “‘They Just Want to Silence Us’: Abuses against Environmental Activists at Kenya’s Coast Region,” Human Rights Watch, December 17, 2018, https://www.hrw.org/report/2018/12/17/they-just-want-silence-us/abuses-against-environmental-activists-kenyas-coast.

  118. Adam Moore, “The U.S.’s Overlooked Counter-terrorism Outpost in Kenya,” Conflict Geographies (blog), November 16, 2016, https://conflictgeographies.com/2016/11/29/the-u-s-s-overlooked-counter-terrorism-outpost-in-kenya/.

  119. Jane Mugambi and Weldon Kipkemoi, “Chinese Firm Halts Work at Lamu Port,” Standard, January 8, 2020, https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001355693/chinese-firm-halts-work-at-lamu-port.

  120. Japan Port Consultants Ltd. and BAC/GKA JV Company, “LAPSSET Corridor and New Lamu Port Feasibility Study and Master Plans Report,” May 2011, https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7w3900K6lYnSndkdEtjNXJXbnc/view.

  Chapter Ten. Refining the Blueprint

  1. Presidency of the Republic of Turkey, “A New Era Will Be Heralded in Our Region Based on Stability and Prosperity,” May 14, 2017, https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/news/542/75199/a-new-era-will-be-heralded-in-our-region-based-on-stability-and-prosperity.

  2. Shohret Hoshur, “Around 120,000 Uyghurs Detained for Political Re-education in Xinjiang’s Kashgar Prefecture,” Radio Free Asia, January 22, 2018, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/uyghur/detentions-01222018171657.html; Stephanie Nebehay, “U.N. Says It Has Credible Reports That China Holds Million Uighurs in Secret Camps,” Reuters, August 10, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-says-it-has-credible-reports-that-china-holds-million-uighurs-in-secret-camps-idUSKBN1KV1SU.

  3. SPA, “Saudi, Chinese Officials Meet at Belt and Road Forum in Beijing,” Arab News, April 26, 2019, http://www.arabnews.com/node/1488556/saudi-arabia; Xinhua, “Xi Jinping Met with Foreign Leaders Attending the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation,” Belt and Road Portal, April 29, 2019, https://eng.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/qwyw/rdxw/87410.htm.

  4. Philip Hammond, “Belt and Road Forum: Philip Hammond’s Speech” (speech at the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, Beijing, April 26, 2019), https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/belt-and-road-forum-philip-hammonds-speech.

  5. China Economic News, “The Complete Speech of Prime Minister Imran Khan at the Belt and Road Forum 2019,” CPEC Info, April 26, 2019, http://www.cpecinfo.com/news/the-complete-speech-of-prime-minister-imran-khan-at-the-belt-and-road-forum-2019/Njk5OQ.

  6. Mahathir Mohamad, “Speech at the High-Level Meeting of Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation” (speech at the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, Beijing, April 26, 2019), Prime Minister’s Office of Malaysia, https://www.pmo.gov.my/2019/04/speech-at-the-high-level-meeting-of-belt-and-road-forum-for-international-cooperation/.

  7. Prime Minister’s
Office of Malaysia, “Press Statement by YAB Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir Bin Mohamad on East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) Project,” April 15, 2019, https://www.pmo.gov.my/2019/04/press-statement-by-yab-prime-minister-tun-dr-mahathir-bin-mohamad-on-east-coast-rail-link-ecrl-project/.

  8. Web Desk, “Pakistan Received $2.1 Billion Loan from China,” News, March 25, 2019, https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/448668-pakistan-received-21-billion-loan-from-china.

  9. Xi Jinping, “Working Together to Deliver a Brighter Future for Belt and Road Cooperation” (speech at the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, Beijing, April 26, 2019), https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1658424.shtml.

  10. Advisory Council of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, “Belt and Road Cooperation: For a Better World, Report on the Findings and Recommendations from the First Meeting of the Advisory Council of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation,” Belt and Road Portal, April 10, 2019, 32, https://eng.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/wcm.files/upload/CMSydylyw/201904/201904280152042.pdf.

  11. Xi, “Working Together.”

  12. Stephanie Petrella, “What Is an Economic Corridor?,” Reconnecting Asia, Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 27, 2018, https://reconnectingasia.csis.org/analysis/entries/what-economic-corridor/.

  13. Jonathan Hillman, “China’s Belt and Road Is Full of Holes,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, September 4, 2018, https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-belt-and-road-full-holes.

  14. Yun Sun, Africa in China’s Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, April 2014), https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Africa-in-China-web_CMG7.pdf; Wendy Leutert, “Challenges Ahead in China’s Reform of State-Owned Enterprises,” Asia Policy 21 (January 2016): 87, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Wendy-Leutert-Challenges-ahead-in-Chinas-reform-of-stateowned-enterprises.pdf; Sabine Mokry, “Chinese Experts Challenge Western Generalists in Diplomacy,” Diplomat, August 15, 2018, https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/chinese-experts-challenge-western-generalists-in-diplomacy/.

  15. Sun, Africa in China’s Foreign Policy; Denghua Zhang and Graeme Smith, “China’s Foreign Aid System: Structure, Agencies, and Identities,” Third World Quarterly 38, no. 10 (2017): 2330–2346.

  16. Denghua Zhang, “China’s New Aid Agency Won’t Change Much,” East Asia Forum, March 9, 2019, https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2019/03/09/chinas-new-aid-agency-wont-change-much/.

  17. Nadege Rolland, “Beijing’s Response to the Belt and Road Initiative’s ‘Pushback’: A Story of Assessment and Adaptation,” Asian Affairs 50, no. 2 (2019): 216–235, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03068374.2019.1602385.

  18. Zhang, “China’s New Aid Agency Won’t Change Much.”

  19. Jonathan Hillman, “China’s New Silk Road Conundrum,” Washington Post, February 14, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2018/02/14/cpec/?utm_term=.84d01780c373.

  20. S. A. M. Adshead, Central Asia in World History (New York: Palgrave, 1993), 89.

  21. Austin Ramzy, “He Needed a Job. China Gave Him One: Locking Up His Fellow Muslims,” New York Times, March 2, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/02/world/asia/china-muslim-detention-uighur-kazakh.html.

  22. Xinhua, “Xi Calls for Building ‘Great Wall of Iron’ for Xinjiang’s Stability,” Xinhuanet, March 10, 2017, http://www.xinhuanet.com//english/2017-03/10/c_136119256.htm.

  23. Adrian Zenz, “Xinjiang’s Re-education and Securitization Campaign: Evidence from Domestic Security Budgets,” China Brief 18, no. 17 (November 5, 2018), https://jamestown.org/program/xinjiangs-re-education-and-securitization-campaign-evidence-from-domestic-security-budgets/.

  24. Xi Jinping, “Work Together to Build the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road” (speech at the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, Beijing, May 14, 2017), Xinhuanet, May 16, 2017, http://www.xinhuanet.com//english/2017-05/16/c_136287878.htm.

  25. J. A. Hobson, Imperialism: A Study (New York: James Pott, 1902); Vladimir Il’ich Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism: A Popular Outline (New York: International, 1939); Edward W. Said, Culture and Imperialism (London: Chatto and Windus, 1993); Uday Singh Mehta, Liberalism and Empire: A Study in Nineteenth-Century British Liberal Thought (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999).

  26. “Imperialism, n.,” OED Online, Oxford University Press, accessed January 17, 2020, https://www.oed.com/view/Entry/92285?redirectedFrom=imperialism&.

  27. Howard W. French, China’s Second Continent: How a Million Migrants Are Building a New Empire in Africa (New York: Random House, 2014), 260–261.

  28. Francis Fukuyama, Michael Bennon, and Bushra Bataineh, “How the Belt and Road Gained Steam: Causes and Implications of China’s Rise in Global Infrastructure” (CDDRL Working Papers, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford, CA, May 2019), https://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publication/how-belt-and-road-gained-steam-causes-and-implications-china%E2%80%99s-rise-global.

  29. Robert M. Orr Jr., The Emergence of Japan’s Foreign Aid Power (New York: Columbia University Press, 1990).

  30. George Friedman and Meredith Lebard, The Coming War with Japan (London: St. Martin’s, 1991).

  31. European Commission, EU-China Connectivity Platform Short-Term Action Plan (Brussels: European Union, 2018), https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/2018-07-13-eu-china-connectivity-platform-action-plan.pdf.

  32. Andrew Small, “A Slimmer Belt and Road Is Even Scarier,” Bloomberg, April 24, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-24/a-slimmed-down-belt-and-road-will-increase-china-s-influence.

  33. Warren Buffet, “Berkshire’s Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500,” Berkshire Hathaway, 2001, http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2001ar/2001letter.html.

  Acknowledgments

  THANK YOU TO MY colleagues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). John Hamre created the Reconnecting Asia Project, Craig Cohen and Josiane Gable nurtured it, and Matthew Goodman has been its champion. Emily Tiemeyer produced the maps in this book, demonstrating again that Andrew Schwartz, Rebecka Shirazi, and Paul Franz have built the best media team in the think-tank business. Maesea McCalpin led a talented group of researchers who provided critical support, especially John McHugh and Sebastian He.

  Many experts, within and outside CSIS, provided feedback on drafts: Noah Barkin, Jude Blanchette, Cat Chiang, Judd Devermont, Daniel Headrick, Murray Heibert, Chris Miller, Vasu Mohan, Andrew Small, and Tom Zoellner. I also benefited from the deep expertise of the Reconnecting Asia Project’s nonresident scholars, Bushra Bataineh, Mike Bennon, Agatha Kratz, and Peter Raymond, as well its advisory board: Victor Cha, Edward Cho, Alexander Cooley, Alexander Diener, Michael Green, Scott Kennedy, Sarah Ladislaw, Jeffrey Mankoff, Scott Miller, Richard Rossow, Daniel Runde, and Amy Searight. The staff at the Rockefeller Archive Center and the Richard Nixon Library helped track down documents about early U.S. involvement in Pakistan. I am also indebted to numerous former U.S. officials who shared their thoughts privately as well as two anonymous reviewers of the manuscript.

  The book would not have been possible without the generous support of the Smith Richardson Foundation (SRF) and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. Allan Song at SRF challenged me to focus on carefully describing China’s Belt and Road as it is, rather than jumping ahead to consider how the United States and others should respond. Doron Weber at Sloan pushed me to focus on China’s technology, an area that I plan to continue exploring.

  Several editors generously provided opportunities to write and sharpen my thinking: Andrew Hill, James Kynge, Gwen Robinson, and Stefan Wagstyl at the Financial Times and Nikkei Asian Review, Adam Kushner at the Washington Post, Peter Mellgard and Kathleen Miles at the WorldPost, and Chris Russell at Axios.

  Toby Mundy, literary agent and advocate of big ideas, encouraged me to tackle this project, helped lift it for a broader audience, and found it
a home. Every author needs an editor like Jaya Chatterjee at Yale University Press: strategic, smart, and responsive from beginning to end. Mary Pasti and Eva Skewes masterfully kept all the parts of the manuscript moving toward production. Andrew Katz provided a careful and critical eye, just when my own vision was starting to get blurry. Enid L. Zafran efficiently created the index. This is my first book, and hopefully not the last, but I suspect I have been spoiled.

  I also owe a personal debt to several teachers and mentors. A decade ago, Douglas Blum, Linda B. Miller, and Claudia Elliott taught me how to turn evidence into arguments, arguments into essays, and essays into chapters. I learned much about China’s rise as a research and teaching assistant to Graham Allison, and I remain a student. Working for Michael Froman, one of the few true practitioners of both economics and national security, I learned how to think about economic power. Leslie H. Gelb, who passed away while this book was being edited, challenged me to write more and better. I can still hear his voice: provocative to grab your attention, brutally direct to point out what you are missing, encouraging to inspire action and a better outcome, and always honest.

  Finally, thank you to friends and family for enduring my stories about infrastructure projects and understanding when I needed to disappear to visit a strange place or into a quiet room to write. My parents never wavered in their encouragement along the path that led from Massachusetts to New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Kyrgyzstan, and eventually to this book. Liz, my wife and partner in all things, is a constant source of inspiration. This book is for her, and I smile when thinking that one day, our daughter, Harper, might read it.

  Index

  Maps are indicated by italicized page numbers.

  Abbasi, Shahid Khaqan, (i)

  Abe, Shinzo, (i), (ii), (iii)

  Abeygunawardena, Sumanadasa, (i)

  Abiy Ahmed, (i)

  ADB. See Asian Development Bank

  Adwa, Battle of (1896), (i)