The Indian Space Programme

by Gurbir Singh

  Figure 16‑4 Location of debris objects that have been recovered after re-entry. Credit ESA

  In 2010, the British Parliament highlighted the risk stating that the Kessler Syndrome “could make it impossible to operate satellites safely in the future.”[965] Debris in LEO of about 400 km is not a serious concern, as there is sufficient atmospheric drag to force it to re-enter within about two years or sooner. With increasing altitude, the rate of orbital decay is smaller where it will remain in orbit for decades. Objects of about 10 cm in LEO are routinely tracked using Earth-based radar, while objects 1 m or larger are monitored using Earth-based optical telescopes. Space debris in GEO is too far for radar and monitored only by optical telescopes.

  There are over 20,000 large objects over 10 cm in LEO that is, up to 2,000 km, with a majority concentrated around 750 km. Of the 20,000 large objects in orbit, approximately 1,500 are active spacecraft. Space debris is tracked by a global network of observatories coordinated primarily by two organisations, the International Scientific Optical Network (ISON) managed by the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) managed by the US military. ISON is an international project with about 30 optical telescopes in 20 observatories located in ten countries, while the SSN consists of ground-based radars and optical sensors at 25 sites worldwide.

  ISRO has now joined the global effort to track space debris with two installations. A Multi-Object Tracking Radar consisting of large phased-array-antenna-based tracking radar recently established at Sriharikota. It will have the capability to locate and track debris of 25 cm x 25 cm at 1,000 km orbit. Two 1-m optical telescopes fitted with 4000 x 4000 CCDs are being installed 2,000 km away on Mount Abu and will be remotely controlled by ISRO from its MCF. Mount Abu telescopes will help to track debris fragments in GEO.

  Figure 16‑5 Multi-Object Tracking Radar. Credit ISRO

  The most significant contribution to the growth of space debris has been from accidental collisions between spacecraft and deliberate ASAT weapon tests. However, unintended explosions from unused fuel, pressure vessels and pyrotechnics of spacecraft in LEO have also contributed to increasing the number of objects in space well beyond the number of spacecraft launched. On 22 December 2007, the UNGA endorsed the Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines that derived from the work done by IADC. The IADC is an international forum for exchanging information between member space agencies on space debris research activities designed to identify debris mitigation guidelines.

  The guidelines reflect the practices that have been developed and are being practiced by some national and international organisations. Space debris can arise from each of the three phases that constitute a space mission - launch, operation and end-of-life. The UN invited the IADC member states to voluntarily incorporate three principles in their national space management procedures to mitigate space debris: (a) limit debris released during normal operations, (b) minimise the potential for in-orbit break-up and collision and (c) remove non-operational objects from populated regions.[966]

  The IADC guidelines include the following:

  Space debris mitigation should be considered at the mission design phase. Launch vehicles and spacecraft should be designed to minimise debris release, such as connectors between stages, spacecraft release mechanisms, sensor covers and so on, during normal operations.

  The design phase should also consider minimizing probable failure modes leading to accidental breakups.

  Pyrotechnics built into launch vehicles and spacecraft for stage separation or as self-destruction mechanism should be made safe once a spacecraft is in orbit.

  At the end of the mission, the risk of accidental break-up or explosion should be minimised by releasing residual propellants, controlled discharge of high-pressure vessels, dampening flywheels and momentum wheels and disconnecting and discharging batteries.

  Spacecraft terminating their operational phases in LEO region should be directed to leave the operational orbit and re-enter through a de-orbit trajectory.

  Spacecraft in GEO orbits should be moved 235 km or more above their allocated orbit to free the slot for future spacecraft. Orbital slots in GEO is a “scarce natural resource, whose importance and value increase rapidly with the development of space technology”, with capacity for about 2000 satellites, as calculated in the 1980s.[967] GEO slots are allocated to individual countries by the UN's International Telecommunications Union. By carefully and dynamically managing their positions, ISRO operates more satellites in GEO than GEO slots allocated to it.[968]

  India has ratified two treaties that have come out of IADC, the treaty banning nuclear weapons tests in the atmosphere, outer space and under water and the convention on the prohibition of military or any other hostile use of environmental modification techniques. Space debris is increasingly seen as the "greatest risk to the space environment" that can only be mitigated through international collaboration.[969] As the number of spacecraft in orbit increases, abiding by the IADC guidelines will become increasingly more significant. While an international consensus on mitigating the risk of debris proliferation is becoming established, it is taking place against a backdrop where space is the next theatre for war (after land, sea and air) and a centre commercial competition.

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  Chapter Seventeen

  The Road Ahead

  I n 1970, Vikram Sarabhai noted that a holistic approach was necessary for national development. He wrote “there is a totality of the process of development which involves not only advanced technology and hardware but the imaginative planning of supply and consumption centres, of social organisation and management, to leapfrog from a state of backwardness and poverty.”[970] India’s space programme is one essential element of a larger national undertaking that is necessary for that leap. Even before becoming India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru had initiated policies and the building of institutions recognising the profound role of science in fulfilling his vision of a self-sufficient India “it is science alone that can solve the problem of hunger and poverty, of insanitation and illiteracy.”[971] Since its inception, India’s space programme has always received strong political support from every Indian government irrespective of its political colour. Relative to other parts of the Indian government behemoth, the DOS under which ISRO operates is seen as a beacon of efficiency and technological excellence.

  Independent India had emerged into a world immersed in optimism, uncertainty and the beginnings of a Cold War. In 1947, it was not just India that awoke “to life and freedom” but most of Europe after the horrors of World War II. The tumultuous events of two world wars in the same century had redrawn the map of Europe, forced people apart in some places and together in others, introduced the most powerful weapons ever devised and triggered a Cold War that prevailed almost for the rest of the century. Partly in response to this emerging Cold War, President Harry S. Truman’s (1884–1972) inaugural address in 1949 directed the US to “embark on a bold new programme for making the benefits of our scientific advances and industrial progress available for the improvement and growth of underdeveloped areas.”[972] The targets of this policy were the Asian and African countries that had gained or were pursuing independence. India was a top target. A division emerged based on western democracy and the USSR’s communism. Countries that aligned with the US and democratic ideals came to be known as the “west” and those that aligned with the USSR and communist ideals became the Warsaw Pact. Nehru refused to join either bloc, rejecting both “communist teachings… and anti-communist teachings” insisting that “If I join any of these big groups I lose my identity.”[973]

  Nehru and his successors have guided India to receive technological assistance from the USSR, US, France and others for various programmes, including the space programme, since independence. That support was modulated by the changing geopolitical landscape.[974] The US quietly supported India’s desire for a nuclear weapon but only afte
r China had successfully tested its first nuclear weapon in 1964. A decade later, when India conducted its first nuclear test, Pokhran-1, the US introduced sanctions. The Nixon government, with an eye on air bases in Pakistan to monitor the USSR, always considered Pakistan a natural ally. The US supported Pakistan in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War and imposed on India one of the earliest sanctions regimes in its history, leading to an almost three-decade long technological apartheid.[975]

  Why should a country faced with problems of illiteracy and basic healthcare invest large sums of its national income on a spacecraft to Mars? How can India justify receiving international aid while choosing to invest in a space telescope in Earth orbit for pure scientific research? Investment in space programme for nations struggling to address basic needs of employment, healthcare and education for large proportions of its populations appears wrong and inappropriate. The effectiveness of space based solution to address them are not tangible nor obvious. Science and technology were key contributors to creating the developed world. Since independence, a series of India’s elected leaders have navigated India’s continued development based on science and technology.

  Rockets or Rotis

  Has the Indian space programme had a substantial impact on reducing poverty? Some observers conclude that the answer is mixed, pointing out that India’s space assets have cost more than the revenue they generate.[976] India could have acquired its space assets commercially, and substantial capital expenditure could have been saved. The infrastructure at Sriharikota, VSSC, SAC, ISAC, MCF and PRL for designing, building and launching spacecraft; communication; spacecraft management and R&D would not be required. However, ISRO was not designed to be a commercial entity despite its deepening commercial activities. It provides services, including healthcare, education, fishing advisories and weather services to farmers that make a daily impact on the lives of millions of its citizens in a myriad of ways. In a delightful and detailed audit of the social impact of ISRO’s services, S.K. Das records one example of profound but unmeasurable outcome, “you see that old lady with a bent back? It is for people like her that ISRO would have made the journey safe with its landslide maps.”[977]

  Further, there is no universally fixed definition or mechanism to measure poverty. What poverty is and how it is measured changes with time and place.[978] Despite an expensive and targeted programme, a ‘War on Poverty,’ initiated by the Lyndon Johnson administration in 1964, the US has been unable to eradicate poverty.[979] Since the remarkable technological success of its Mercury, Gemini and Apollo space programmes in the 1960s, the poverty rate in the US has hovered between 12% and 15%.[980] In India, during the last quarter of the 20th century, poverty fell from about 50% to about 25%.[981] As a consequence of the economic reforms of 1991, the Indian economy has grown at a remarkable pace pulling around 10 million people a year above the poverty threshold in the last decade.[982] The growth of the Indian economy has mirrored the reduction of poverty.[983]

  India’s economic transformation over the last two decades has quietly turned it from a net recipient to a donor of international aid.[984] While India still receives and accepts international aid to help address the needs of its 300 million poor, the UK is winding down its contribution of $300 million (Rs.2037.5 crore) per year, along with other western nations. At the same time, India’s contribution to international assistance has been growing. India has (a) pledged $10 billion (Rs.66,800 crore) in line of credit towards development projects in Africa, (b) committed $1 billion (Rs.6,700 crore) to Afghanistan for its fight against terrorism,[985] (c) contributed $825 million (Rs.5,500 crore) in grants for students from 156 developing countries to study in Indian universities via the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation Programme and (d) become the largest donor to neighbouring countries, including Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

  By 2020, India is expected to be the youngest country in the world with half of India’s 1.3 billion population under the age of 26. With more people in the workforce, this demographic dividend will add to the boom in consumer spending and fuel future growth. There will be greater demand for existing space based services and new services such as mobile telephony and satellite based internet access. For many these have become a routine expectation, such that, speaking at UNISPACE-II, Yash Pal, a highly respected scientist who has held several senior posts within ISRO, posed the question, “should mankind not begin to conceive of new “minimal human rights” which would include the right to communicate…?”[986] ISRO’s achievement in nation building are substantial and growing. Perhaps its most significant contribution is in fostering a sense of national pride, prestige and self-sufficiency as envisaged by its founders. In the absence of the domestic capability, including space-based services India would be forced to do without them or continue to depend on other nations at high cost. Both options are costly and would perpetuate, not diminish poverty.

  Satellite TV, Demand and Supply

  The unqualified success of SITE, which demonstrated the benefit of DTH broadcasting from space in 1975–76, inspired a nationwide appetite for DTH services in the 21st century India. Between 2010 and 2015, the DTH market grew by 25% annually.[987] Only 53 million of the 250 million Indian households can receive DTH services. The other 200 million are approximately equally split between those that have cable TV and those that do not have a TV at all. The popularity of large high-definition (HD) flat screen TV is adding to HD television content further increasing the demand for data capacity. By 2016, India had seven DTH suppliers (Videocon d2h, Sun Direct, Reliance Digital, Dish TV, Tata Sky, Aortal DD Direct Plus and Digital TV) providing 900 TV channels, of which 50 carried HD signal. This is expected to grow to 1,300 with 150 HD channels in 2017.[988]

  The growing economy and middle class has triggered a surge in demand for DTH services, and ISRO is struggling to meet. By 2015, Indian DTH services were using 78 Ku-band DTH transponders, of which ISRO was supplying only 19.[989] The remaining 59 were purchased from foreign satellite providers by Indian DTH suppliers through ISRO in an administratively complex and costly process.

  Each satellite has only a limited number of transponders; INSAT-4B, for example, has just 24. Further, only a fraction of the transponder capacity owned by ISRO is available for use by domestic DTH suppliers. Most are commercially leased or used for national services, such as COSPAS-SARSAT, GAGAN , meteorology and remote sensing. At the end of the 11th FYP in 2011, only 198 transponders of the planned 500 were available from the INSAT/GSAT satellites. The loss of two communication satellites GSAT-4 and GSAT-5P and 40 transponders between them in 2010 further exacerbated the problem.[990] In the 12th FYP (2012–2017), the projected demand was for 794 transponders, but ISRO planned to increase to only 398 transponders.[991] These transponders were to be delivered through the launch of 14 additional communication satellites over the period of the 12th FYP.[992] As conservative as it was, ISRO still has not been able to meet this target. Despite its many successes, ISRO is failing to meet the domestic demand for transponders and is looking to lease them commercially from international satellite operators.[993]

  Private Sector

  The global space industry estimated to be worth $323 billion (Rs. 2,041,038 crore) in 2015. A tiny amount of this revenue accounts for satellite manufacturing (0.04%) and launch services (0.01%) around the world. The US dominates the commercial launch market and ISRO engaged in just 1 commercially procured launch in 2014 and two in 2015.[994] In India, space activities remain primarily within the purview of the state-owned ISRO. In 1992, ISRO established Antrix as an independent entity to conduct its commercial activities. Through Antrix, ISRO has been generating income by providing services, including the launch of foreign satellites, the sale of data from its EO satellites and the leasing of transponders on its communication satellites. However, a nascent commercial space sector is beginning to emerge in India. Some of the reasons for weak private sector participation can be traced back to the early economic policies. For the
first four decades of Independence, Indian economy was guided largely by the socialist ideals of its government. Burdensome red tape hindered entrepreneurship and industrial innovation, and the private sector in India was virtually non-existent until economic controls were relaxed. This pre-liberalisation period between 1947 and 1991 is cynically known within India as the ‘Licence-Permit Raj.’[995] In 1991, India’s economic regulations were relaxed, from when the economy has seen steady growth.

  Over the last two decades, a $100 billion (about Rs. 670,000 crore) information technology industry has developed in India, and it has come a long way since the initial low-cost outsourced call centres and first line software support for the US and European multinationals. Since then it has moved to higher value services in software development, cloud services and data centre hosting. Other private sector industries, such as pharmaceuticals, materials and machine tools, have also been flourishing.[996] Despite progress in some sectors, such as IT, engineering, semiconductors and telecommunications, India is still largely procuring Western technology. For example, commercial aircraft, nuclear power, specialised medical scanners and defence systems. While internationally, the commercial space sector has been growing led by the private sector, entrenched Indian bureaucracy and government regulations continue to block private sector opportunities in India.