Battlegrounds

by H. R. McMaster

  52Shimer, “Smaller Democracies”; Amy Zegart and Michael Morrell, “Why U.S. Intelligence Agencies Must Adapt or Fail,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2019, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-04-16/spies-lies-and-algorithms.

  53Philip Rucker, Anton Troianovski, and Seung Min Kim, “Trump Hands Putin a Diplomatic Triumph by Casting Doubt on U.S. Intelligence Agencies,” Washington Post, July 16, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ahead-of-putin-summit-trump-faults-us-stupidity-for-poor-relations-with-russia/2018/07/16/297f671c-88c0-11e8-a345-a1bf7847b375_story.html.

  54On the DNC’s reaction to the hacks, see Donna Brazile, Hacks: The Inside Story of the Break-ins and Breakdowns that Put Donald Trump in the White House (New York: Hachette Books, 2017), 95–103. On Obama, see Philip Bump, “What Obama Did, Didn’t Do, and Couldn’t Do in Response to Russian Interference,” Washington Post, February 21, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/02/21/what-obama-did-didnt-do-and-couldnt-do-in-response-to-russian-interference/. On Trump’s quote, see Paul Waldman, “Trump Sucks Up to Putin, Embarrassing Us Yet Again,” Washington Post, June 28, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/06/28/trump-sucks-up-putin-embarrassing-us-yet-again/.

  55Anton Troianovski and Joby Warrick, “Agents of Doubt: How a Powerful Russian Propaganda Machine Chips Away at Western Notions of Truth,” Washington Post, December 10, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/national-security/russian-propaganda-skripal-salisbury/.

  56On the Skripal attack, see Andrew Roth and Vikram Dodd, “Salisbury Novichok Suspects Say They Were Only Visiting Cathedral,” The Guardian, September 13, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/sep/13/russian-television-channel-rt-says-it-is-to-air-interview-with-skripal-salisbury-attack-suspects; Troianovski and Warrick, “Agents of Doubt.”

  57“Statement from the Press Secretary on the Expulsion of Russian Intelligence Officers,” Statements and Releases, The White House, March 26, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-press-secretary-expulsion-russian-intelligence-officers/.

  58Carl Gershman, “Remembering a Journalist Who Was Killed for Standing Up to Putin,” Washington Post, October 6, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/remembering-a-journalist-who-was-killed-for-standing-up-to-putin/2016/10/06/d3a9e176-8bf7-11e6-bff0-d53f592f176e_story.html; David Filipov, “Here Are 10 Critics of Vladimir Putin Who Died Violently or in Suspicious Ways,” Washington Post, March 23, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/03/23/here-are-ten-critics-of-vladimir-putin-who-died-violently-or-in-suspicious-ways/.

  59BBC News, “Syria War: What We Know About Douma ‘Chemical Attack,’” BBC, July 10, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43697084; Sheena McKenzie, “Suspected Syria Chemical Attack Might Have Affected 500 People, WHO Says,” CNN, April 11, 2018, https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/11/middleeast/syria-chemical-attack-500-affected-who-intl/index.html.

  60On the Wagner Group, see Mike Giglio, “How a Group of Russian Guns for Hire Are Operating in the Shadows,” BuzzFeed News, April 19, 2019, https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/mikegiglio/inside-wagner-mercenaries-russia-ukraine-syria-prighozhin. On the Malaysia Airlines flight, “Russia’s Role in Shooting Down an Airliner Becomes Official,” The Economist, May 30, 2018, https://www.economist.com/europe/2018/05/30/russias-role-in-shooting-down-an-airliner-becomes-official.

  61Peter Ford, “Russia’s Retreat Ends Chechnya War but Leaves a Long-Term Impact,” The Christian Science Monitor, January 6, 1997, https://www.csmonitor.com/1997/0106/010697.intl.intl.2.html.

  62“Alert (TA18-074A) Russian Government Cyber Activity Targeting Energy and Other Critical Infrastructure Sectors,” CISA, March 16, 2018, https://www.us-cert.gov/ncas/alerts/TA18-074A.

  63Nicole Perlroth and David E. Sanger, “Cyberattacks Put Russian Fingers on the Switch at Power Plants, U.S. Says,” New York Times, March 15, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/15/us/politics/russia-cyberattacks.html.

  64Alexander Cooley, “Whose Rules, Whose Sphere? Russian Governance and Influence in Post-Soviet States,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 30, 2017, https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/06/30/whose-rules-whose-sphere-russian-governance-and-influence-in-post-soviet-states-pub-71403.

  65“Nord Stream: The Gas Pipeline Directly Connecting Russia and Europe,” Gazprom, http://www.gazprom.com/projects/nord-stream/; Editorial Board, “The Right (and Wrong) Way to Deal with Nord Stream 2,” Bloomberg Opinion, November 27, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-27/nord-stream-2-the-right-and-wrong-response-for-america.

  66George Frost Kennan, Russia and the West Under Lenin and Stalin (Boston, MA: Little, Brown and Company, 1961), 13.

  67Philipp Ther, Europe Since 1989: A History, trans. Charlotte Hughes-Kreutzmüller (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 2016), 302–3.

  68On the role of the Kremlin in each of these crises, see Michael Stott, “Russia Blames U.S. for Global Financial Crisis,” Reuters, June 7, 2008, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-forum-medvedev/russia-blames-u-s-for-global-financial-crisis-idUSL0749277620080607; Timothy Heritage, “Russia Waits in Wings as Greek Debt Crisis Deepens,” Reuters, July 3, 2015, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-russia/russia-waits-in-wings-as-greek-debt-crisis-deepens-idUSKCN0PD0YH20150703; Peter Walker, “Russia ‘Spreading Fake News about Refugees to Sow Discord in Europe’ Says Ex-Spy,” The Independent, March 22, 2017, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-europe-threat-refugee-crisis-europe-aggravate-propaganda-kremlin-farenc-katrei-hungarian-spy-a7642711.html; David D. Kirkpatrick, “Signs of Russian Meddling in Brexit Referendum,” New York Times, November 15, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/15/world/europe/russia-brexit-twitter-facebook.html; Andrew Roth and Angelique Chrisafis, “Gilets Jaunes: Grassroots Heroes or Tools of the Kremlin?” The Guardian, December 17, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/17/gilets-jaunes-grassroots-heroes-or-kremlin-tools; Matt Bradley, “Europe’s Far-Right Enjoys Backing from Russia’s Putin,” NBC News, February 12, 2017, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/europe-s-far-right-enjoys-backing-russia-s-putin-n718926.

  69Tony Judt, Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945 (New York: Penguin Books, 2005), 737.

  70For European perspectives on the American pivot, see Bjonar Sverdrup-Thygeson, Marc Lanteigne, and Ulf Sverdrup, “‘For Every Action . . .’: The American Pivot to Asia and Fragmented European Responses,” Project on International Order and Strategy, Brookings and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, January 27, 2016, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/The-American-pivot-to-Asia-and-fragmented-European-responses-2.pdf. On the Macron quote, see Alexandra Ma, “French President Macron Dunked on Trump for Pulling out of Syria Without Telling His NATO Allies,” Business Insider, n.d., https://www.businessinsider.sg/macron-trump-withdraw-syria-without-telling-nato-economist-2019-11/; Maegan Vazquez and Allie Malloy, “Macron Refuses to Back Down After Trump Attack,” CNN, December 4, 2019. https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/03/politics/donald-trump-nato/index.html.

  71Andrew Rawnsley, “Interview: Madeleine Albright: ‘The Things That Are Happening Are Genuinely, Seriously Bad,’” The Guardian, July 8, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jul/08/madeleine-albright-fascism-is-not-an-ideology-its-a-method-interview-fascism-a-warning.

  Chapter 2: Parrying Putin’s Playbook

  1House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, House Committee on Oversight and Reform, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, “Excerpts from Joint Deposition: Dr. Fiona Hill Former Deputy Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Europe and Russia, National Security Council,” Washington, DC, October 14, 2019, https://intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/20191108_-_hill_transcript_excerpts_-_13 7591.pdf.

  2Bill Keller, “Major Soviet Paper Says 20 Million Died as Victims of Stalin,” New York Times, February 4, 1989, https://www.nytimes.com/1989/02/04/world/major-soviet-paper-says-20-million-died-as-victims-of
-stalin.html.

  3Keir Giles, Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press), 38.

  4According to the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, Texas’s GDP was ~ $1.8 trillion at the end of 2018. Heading into 2019, Russia’s nominal GDP was ~ $1.65 trillion while Italy’s GDP was ~ $2 trillion. Figures gathered from the World Bank, “Gross Domestic Product by State, First Quarter 2019,” July 25, 2019.

  5Nan Tian et al., “Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2018,” April 2019, https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2019-04/fs_1904_milex_2018.pdf.

  6Timothy Garton Ash, “Europe’s Crises Conceal Opportunities to Forge Another Path,” Financial Times, November 21, 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/160d11b6-ec25-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0.

  7Jill Dougherty, “U.S. Seeks to ‘Reset’ Relations with Russia” CNN, March 7, 2009, http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/03/07/us.russia/index.html; Sue Pleming, “U.S. and Russia Pledge Fresh Start to Relations,” Reuters, March 6, 2009, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa/u-s-and-russia-pledge-fresh-start-in-relations-idUSTRE52522420090307.

  8On Clinton’s quotes, see Glenn Kessler, “Clinton ‘Resets’ Russian Ties—and Language,” Washington Post, March 7, 2009, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/06/AR2009030600428.html. On Obama, see J. David Goodman, “Microphone Catches a Candid Obama,” New York Times, March 27, 2012, https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/27/us/politics/obama-caught-on-microphone-telling-medvedev-of-flexibility.html.

  9Jillian Rayfield, “Obama: The ’80s Called, They Want Their Foreign Policy Back,” Salon, October 23, 2012, https://www.salon.com/2012/10/23/obama_the_80s_called_they_want_their_foreign_policy_back/.

  10“Press Conference by President Bush and Russian Federation President Putin,” The White House, President George W. Bush, National Archives and Records Administration, June 16, 2001, https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/06/20010618.html.

  11Peter Baker, “The Seduction of George W. Bush,” Foreign Policy, November 6, 2013, https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/11/06/the-seduction-of-george-w-bush/.

  12Tyler Pager, “Putin Repeats Praise of Trump: He’s a ‘Bright’ Person,” Politico, June 17, 2016, https://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/putin-praises-trump-224485.

  13Sophie Tatum, “Trump Defends Putin: ‘You Think Our Country’s So Innocent?’” CNN, February 6, 2017, https://www.cnn.com/2017/02/04/politics/donald-trump-vladimir-putin/index.html.

  14“Remarks by President Trump in Press Gaggle Aboard Air Force One en Route Hanoi, Vietnam,” The White House (U.S. Government), https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-press-gaggle-aboard-air-force-one-en-route-hanoi-vietnam/; and Jeremy Diamond, “Trump Sides with Putin over U.S. Intelligence,” CNN, July 16, 2018, https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/16/politics/donald-trump-putin-helsinki-summit/index.html.

  15On the relationship between the Bush administration and Putin, see Condoleezza Rice, Democracy: Stories from the Long Road to Freedom (New York: Twelve, 2018).

  16FP Staff, “Here’s What Trump and Putin Actually Said in Helsinki,” Foreign Policy, July 18, 2018, https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/18/heres-what-trump-and-putin-actually-said-in-helsinki/.

  17Scott Shane, “Stephen Bannon in 2014: We Are at War with Radical Islam,” New York Times, February 2, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/01/us/stephen-bannon-war-with-radical-islam.html.

  18See, for example, Donald J. Trump, “Trump: I’m Not Pro-Russia, I Just Want Our Country Safe,” interview by Tucker Carlson, Tucker Carlson Tonight, Fox News, July 17, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MB8etvUSag0; see also Anne Applebaum, “The False Romance of Russia,” The Atlantic, December 12, 2019, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/12/false-romance-russia/603433/.

  19George Kennan, Russia and the West Under Lenin and Stalin (Boston, MA: Little, Brown and Company, 1961), 349–69.

  20Jason Schwartz, “Senate Approves Supplemental Lend-Lease Act, Oct. 23, 1941,” Politico, October 23, 2017, https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/23/senate-approves-supplemental-lend-lease-act-oct-23-1941-243990.

  21On neo-Nazis and Russia, see Vegas Tenold, “My Six Years Covering Neo-Nazis: ‘They’re All Vying for the Affections of Russia,’” interview by Lois Beckett, The Guardian U.S., February 17, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/feb/17/vegas-tenold-everything-you-love-will-burn-q-and-a-nazis; on Hungary, see Rick Lyman and Alison Smale, “Defying Soviets, Then Pulling Hungary to Putin,” New York Times, November 7, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/08/world/europe/viktor-orban-steers-hungary-toward-russia-25-years-after-fall-of-the-berlin-wall.html; on the Orthodox Church, see Ishaan Tharoor, “The Christian Zeal Behind Russia’s War in Syria,” Washington Post, October 1, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/10/01/the-christian-zeal-behind-russias-war-in-syria/; on Russian Orthodox Church ties to Russian intelligence, see Paul A. Goble, “FSB, SVR Divide Control of Moscow Patriarchate Church at Home and Abroad, Ukrainian Intelligence Official Says,” Euromaidan Press, January 29, 2019, http://euromaidanpress.com/2019/01/29/fsb-svr-divide-control-of-moscow-patriarchate-church-at-home-and-abroad-ukrainian-intelligence-official-says/.

  22Mueller Report.

  23“Specially Designated Nationals List Update,” news release, March 15, 2018, Resource Center, Office of Foreign Assets Control, U.S. Department of the Treasury, https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/OFAC-Enforcement/Pages/20180315.aspx.

  24Mueller Report.

  25Adam Goldman, Julian E. Barnes, Maggie Haberman, and Nicolas Fandos, “Lawmakers Are Warned That Russia Is Meddling to Re-elect Trump,” New York Times, February 20, 2020.

  26U.S. Cyber Command, “Achieve and Maintain Cyberspace Superiority, Command Vision for U.S. Cyber Command,” April, 2018, https://www.cybercom.mil/Portals/56/Documents/USCYBERCOM%20Vision%20April%202018.pdf?ver=2018-06-14-152556-010.

  27U.S. Cyber Command, “Achieve and Maintain Cyberspace Superiority.”

  28Ellen Nakashima, “U.S. Cyber Command Operation Disrupted Internet Access of Russian Troll Factory on Day of 2018 Midterms,” Washington Post, February 27, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-cyber-command-operation-disrupted-internet-access-of-russian-troll-factory-on-day-of-2018-midterms/2019/02/26/1827fc9e-36d6-11e9-af5b-b51b7ff322e9_story.html.

  29On the false reports, see Damien McGuinness, “How a Cyber Attack Transformed Estonia,” BBC, April 27, 2017, https://www.bbc.com/news/39655415. On Estonia’s response to Russia’s sustained disinformation campaign, see Emily Tamkin, “10 Years After the Landmark Attack on Estonia Is the World Better Prepared for Cyber Threats?” Foreign Policy, April 27, 2017, https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/04/27/10-years-after-the-landmark-attack-on-estonia-is-the-world-better-prepared-for-cyber-threats/.

  30Quotes from former president Toomas Henrik IIves, interview by author, May 31, 2019.

  31The Security Committee, “Finland’s Cyber Security Strategy,” October 4, 2018, https://turvallisuuskomitea.fi/en/finlands-cyber-security-strategy/ and https://www.kyberturvallisuuskeskus.fi/en/.

  32“Empowering Users to Discover What Matters,” Soap Public Media, https://www.getsoap.org/the-impact/.html.

  33“How Soap Works to Deliver Clarity,” Soap Public Media, https://www.getsoap.org/how-does-soap-work/.

  34“Our Mission, Clean and Simple,” Soap Public Media, https://www.getsoap.org/mission/.

  35Lionel Barber, Henry Foy, and Alex Barker, “Vladimir Putin Says Liberalism Has ‘Become Obsolete,’” Financial Times, June 27, 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/670039ec-98f3-11e9-9573-ee5cbb98ed36.

  36Andrew Radin et al., “The Outlook for Russia’s Growing Military Power,” RAND Corporation, June 18, 2019, https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10038.html.

  37Senate Judiciary Committee, “Testimony of William Browder to the Senate Judiciary Committee on FARA Violations Connected to th
e anti-Magnitsky Campaign by Russian Government Interests,” July 26, 2017, https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/07-26-17%20Browder%20Testimony.pdf.

  38Robert Coalson, “Analysis: After ‘Significant’ Regional Elections, Russia’s Opposition Looks to the Future,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, September 17, 2019, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-analysis-opposition-future-regional-election-putin-navalny-protests/30169846.html.

  39Matthew Luxmoore, “‘With Smart Voting Strategy,’ Russian Opposition Takes Aim at Putin’s ‘Party of Crooks and Thieves,’” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, September 8, 2019, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-smart-voting/30153235.html.

  40Ellen Barry, “Putin Contends Clinton Incited Unrest Over Vote,” New York Times, December 8, 2011, https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/09/world/europe/putin-accuses-clinton-of-instigating-russian-protests.html.

  41Rice, Democracy, 74.

  42On the United States’ role in a post-Putin Russia, see Herman Pirchner, Post Putin: Succession, Stability, and Russia’s Future, American Foreign Policy Council (London, UK: Rowman & Littlefield, 2019). Also see James M. Goldgeier and Michael McFaul, Power and Purpose: U.S. Policy Toward Russia After the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2003), 346, 351.

  43Rice, Democracy, 73–74.

  44Holly Ellyatt, “China’s Xi Calls Putin His ‘Best Friend’ Against a Backdrop of Souring U.S. Relations,” CNBC, June 5, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/05/putin-and-xi-meet-to-strengthen-ties-as-us-relations-sour.html.

  45Grygiel and Mitchell, The Unquiet Frontier, 61–74.

  46On the hundreds of violating flights, see the Heritage Foundation, “Russia: Assessing Threats to U.S. Vital Interests,” October 30, 2019, https://www.heritage.org/military-strength/assessing-threats-us-vital-interests/russia; Emma Chanlett Avery, Caitlin Campbell, and Joshua A. Williams, “The U.S.-Japan Alliance,” Congressional Research Service, June 13, 2019, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33740.pdf. On the July 2019 incident, see Mike Yeo, “Russian-Chinese Air Patrol Was an Attempt to Divide Allies, Says Top U.S. Air Force Official in Pacific,” DefenseNews, August 23, 2019, https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2019/08/23/russian-chinese-air-patrol-was-an-attempt-to-divide-allies-says-top-us-air-force-official-in-pacific/.