This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
Page 32
Frydl, Edward J. 1999. “The Length and Cost of Banking Crises.” International Monetary Fund Working Paper 99/30. International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. March.
Garcia Vizcaino, José. 1972. La Deuda Pública Nacional. Buenos Aires: EUDEBA Editorial Universitaria de Buenos Aires.
Garner, Richard. 2007. “Late Colonial Prices in Selected Latin American Cities.” Working Memorandum. Available at http://home.comcast.net/~richardgarner04/.
———. n.d. “Economic History Data Desk: Economic History of Latin America, United States and New World, 1500–1900.” Available at http://home.comcast.net/~richardgarner04/.
Gavin, Michael, and Roberto Perotti. 1997. “Fiscal Policy in Latin America.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 12: 11–61.
Gayer, Arthur D., W. W. Rostow, and Anna J. Schwartz. 1953. The Growth and Fluctuation of the British Economy, 1790–1850. Oxford: Clarendon.
Gelabert, Juan. 1999a. “Castile, 1504–1808.” In The Rise of the Fiscal State in Europe, c. 1200–1815, ed. R. J. Bonney. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
———. 1999b. “The King’s Expenses: The Asientos of Philip III and Philip IV of Spain. In Crises, Revolutions and Self-Sustained Growth: Essays in European Fiscal History, 1130–1830, ed. W. M. Ormrod, M. M. Bonney, and R. J. Bonney. Stamford, England: Shaun Tyas.
Gerdrup, Karsten R. 2003. “Three Episodes of Financial Fragility in Norway since the 1890s.” Bank for International Settlements Working Paper 142. Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland. October.
Godinho, V. Magalhaes. 1955. Prix et Monnaies au Portugal, 1750–1850. Paris: Librairie Armand Colin.
Global Financial Data. n.d. Global Financial Data. Available at https://www.globalfinancialdata.com/.
Global Price and Income History Group. Available at http://gpih.ucdavis.edu.
Goldstein, Morris. 2003. “Debt Sustainability, Brazil, and the IMF.” Working Paper WP03-1. Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.
Goldstein, Morris, and Philip Turner. 2004. Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics.
Goldstein, Morris, Graciela L. Kaminsky, and Carmen M. Reinhart. 2000. Assessing Financial Vulnerability. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics.
Gorton, Gary. 1988. “Banking Panics and Business Cycles.” Oxford Economic Papers 40: 751–781.
Greenspan, Alan. 2007. The Age of Turbulence. London and New York: Penguin.
Groningen Growth and Development Centre and the Commerce Department. 2008. Total Economy Database. Available at http://www.ggdc.net.
Grytten, Ola. 2008. “The Economic History of Norway.” In EH.Net Encyclopedia, ed. Robert Whaples. Available at http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/grytten.norway.
Hale, David. 2003. “The Newfoundland Lesson: During the 1930s, Long before the IMF, the British Empire Coped with a Debt Crisis in a Small Country. This Is a Tale of the Choice between Debt and Democracy. It Shouldn’t Be Forgotten.” International Economy (Summer). Available at http://www.entrepreneur.com/tradejournals/article/106423908.html.
Hamilton, Earl. 1969. War and Prices in Spain, 1651–1800. New York: Russell and Russell.
Hausmann, Ricardo, and Federico Sturzenegger. 2007. “The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations and Its Implications for Global Imbalances.” Economic Policy 51: 469–518.
Hoffman, P. T., D. S. Jacks, P. Levin, and P. H. Lindert. 2002. “Real Inequality in Europe since 1500.” Journal of Economic History 62 (2): 381–413.
Hoggarth, Glenn, Patricia Jackson, and Erlend Nier. 2005. “Banking Crises and the Design of Safety Nets.” Journal of Banking & Finance 29 (1): 143–159.
Homer, Sidney, and Richard Sylla. 1991. A History of Interest Rates. New Brunswick, N.J., and London: Rutgers University Press.
Hsu, Leonard Shih-Lien. 1935. Silver and Prices in China: Report of the Committee for the Study of Silver Values and Commodity Prices. Shanghai: Commercial Press.
Huang, Feng-Hua. 1919. Public Debts in China. New York: MAS.
Imlah, A. H. 1958. Economic Elements in the Pax Britannica. Cambridge. Mass.: MIT Press.
Institutional Investor. Various years. Institutional Investor.
Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estadistica. 2007. Estadisticas Historicas de Brazil. Rio de Janeiro: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estadistica.
Instituto Nacional de Estatistica (Portuguese Statistical Agency). 1998. Estadisticas Historicas Portuguesas. Lisbon: INE.
International Institute of Social History. n.d. Available at http://www.iisg.nl/.
International Monetary Fund. 2002. “Assessing Sustainability.” Available at http://www.imf.org/external/np/pdr/sus/2002/eng/052802.htm.
———. Various years. International Financial Statistics. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
———. Various years. World Economic Outlook. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
Jácome, Luis. 2008. “Central Bank Involvement in Banking Crises in Latin America.” International Monetary Fund Working Paper 08/135. International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. May.
Jayachandran, Seema, and Michael Kremer. 2006. “Odious Debt.” American Economic Review 96 (March): 82–92.
Jeanne, Olivier. 2009. “Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture.” American Economic Review, forthcoming.
Jeanne, Olivier, and Guscina, Anastasia. 2006. “Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries: A New Dataset.” International Monetary Fund Working Paper 6/98. International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. April.
Johnson, H. Clark. 1998. Gold, France, and the Great Depression: 1919–1935. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.
Jonung, L., and T. Hagberg. 2002. “How Costly Was the Crisis?” Työväen Akatemia, Kauniainen. September.
Jun, S. H., and J. B. Lewis. 2002. “Labour Cost, Land Prices, Land Rent, and Interest Rates in the Southern Region of Korea, 1690–1909.” Working Memorandum. Academy of Korean Studies, Seoul. Available at http://www.iisg.nl/hpw/korea.php.
Kaminsky, Graciela L., and Carmen M. Reinhart. 1999. “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems.” American Economic Review 89 (3): 473–500.
Kaminsky, Graciela L., J. Saul Lizondo, and Carmen M. Reinhart. 1998. “Leading Indicators of Currency Crises.” IMF Staff Papers 45 (1): 1–48.
Kaminsky, Graciela L., Carmen M. Reinhart, and Carlos A. Végh. 2003. “The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 17 (4): 51–74.
———. 2004. “When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Policies.” In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, ed. Mark Gertler and Kenneth S. Rogoff. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press. Pp. 11–53.
Kimura, M. 1987. “La Revolucion de los Precios en la Cuenca del Pacifico, 1600–1650.” Mimeo. Universidad Nacional Autonoma de México, Mexico City.
Kindleberger, Charles P. 1989. Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises. New York: Basic Books.
Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, and John Moore. 1997. “Credit Cycles.” Journal of Political Economy 105: 211–248.
Kohlscheen, Emanuel. 2007. “Why Are There Serial Defaulters? Evidence from Constitutions.” Journal of Law and Economics 50 (November): 713–729.
Korthals Altes, W. L. 1996. Van L Hollands tot Nederlandse f. Amsterdam: Neha.
Kostelenos, George, S. Petmezas, D. Vasileiou, E. Kounaris, and M. Sfakianakis. 2007. “Gross Domestic Product, 1830–1939.” In Sources of Economic History of Modern Greece. Athens: Central Bank of Greece.
Kotlikoff, Lawrence J., Torsten Persson, and Lars E. O. Svensson. 1988. “Social Contracts as Assets: A Possible Solution to the Time-Consistency Problem.” American Economic Review 7: 662–677.
Krugman, Paul. 2007. “Will There Be a Dollar Crisis?” Economic Policy 51 (July): 437–467.
Kryzanowski, Lawrence, and Gordon S. Roberts. 1999. “Perspectives on Canadian Bank Insolvency during the 1930
s.” Journal of Money, Credit & Banking 31 (1): 130–136.
Landes, David S. 1958. Bankers and Pashas: International Finance and Economic Imperialism in Egypt. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Lazaretou, Sophia. 2005. “The Drachma, Foreign Creditors, and the International Monetary System: Tales of a Currency during the 19th and the Early 20th Centuries.” Explorations in Economic History 42 (2): 202–236.
League of Nations. 1944. International Currency Experience: Lessons of the Interwar Period. Geneva: League of Nations.
———. Various years. Statistical Abstract. Geneva: League of Nations.
———. Various years. Statistical Yearbook, 1926–1944. Geneva: League of Nations.
———. Various years. World Economic Survey, 1926–1944. Geneva: League of Nations.
Levandis, John Alexander. 1944. The Greek Foreign Debt and the Great Powers, 1821–1898. New York: Columbia University Press.
Lindert, Peter H., and Boris Mironov. n.d. Ag-Content of the Ruble. Available at http://gpih.ucdavis.edu/.
Lindert, Peter H., and Peter J. Morton. 1989. “How Sovereign Debt Has Worked.” In Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, vol. 1, ed. Jeffrey Sachs. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Pp. 39–106.
Lu, Feng, and Kaixiang Peng. 2006. “A Research on China’s Long Term Rice Prices: 1644–2000.” Frontiers of Economics in China 1 (4): 465–520.
MacDonald, James. 2006. A Free Nation Deep in Debt: The Financial Roots of Democracy. New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux.
Maddison, Angus. 2004. Historical Statistics for the World Economy: 1–2003 AD. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Available at http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/.
Malanima, Paolo. n.d. Wheat Prices in Tuscany, 1260–1860. Available at http://www.iisg.nl/.
Mamalakis, Markos. 1983. Historical Statistics of Chile. Westport, Conn.: Greenwood.
Manasse, Paolo, and Nouriel Roubini. 2005. “ ‘Rules of Thumb’ for Sovereign Debt Crises.” IMF Working Paper 05/42. International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.
Marichal, Carlos. 1989. A Century of Debt Crises in Latin America: From Independence to the Great Depression, 1820–1930. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Mauro, Paolo, Nathan Sussman, and Yishay Yafeh. 2006. Emerging Markets and Financial Globalization: Sovereign Bond Spreads in 1870–1913 and Today. London: Oxford University Press.
McConnell, Margaret, and Gabriel Perez-Quiros. 2000. “Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980’s?” American Economic Review 90 (5): 1464–1476.
McElderry, Andrea Lee. 1976. Shanghai Old-Style Banks, 1800–1935: A Traditional Institution in a Changing Society. Ann Arbor: Center for Chinese Studies, University of Michigan.
McGrattan, Ellen, and Edward Prescott. 2007. “Technology Capital and the U.S. Current Accounts.” Working Paper 646. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. June.
Mellegers, Joost. 2006. “Public Finance of Indonesia, 1817–1940.” Working Memorandum. Indonesian Economic Development, International Institute of Social History, Amsterdam.
Mendoza, Enrique G., and Marco Terrones. 2008. “An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence from the Macro Aggregates and Micro Data.” NBER Working Paper 14049. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass. May.
Miller, Margaret S. 1926. The Economic Development of Russia, 1905–1914. London: P. S. King and Son.
Mitchell, Brian R. 2003a. International Historical Statistics: Africa, Asia, and Oceania, 1750–2000. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
———. 2003b. International Historical Statistics: The Americas, 1750–2000. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Mizoguchi, Toshiyuki, and Mataji Umemura. 1988. Basic Economic Statistics of Former Japanese Colonies, 1895–1938: Estimates and Findings. Tokyo: Toyo Keizai Shinposha.
Moody’s Investor Service. 2000. “Historical Default Rates of Corporate Bond Issuers, 1920–1999.” Moody’s Investor Service Global Credit Research, special comment, January.
Morris, Stephen, and Hyun Song Shin. 1998. “Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks.” American Economic Review 88 (June): 587–597.
Nakamura, Leonard I, and Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga. 2001. Banking and Finance in Argentina in the Period 1900–35. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Working Paper 01-7. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Pa. June.
Neal, Larry, and Marc Weidenmier. 2003. “Crises in the Global Economy from Tulips to Today: Contagion and Consequences.” In Globalization in Historical Perspective, ed. Michael Bordo, Alan M. Taylor, and Jeffrey Williamson. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Pp. 473–514.
Neely, Christopher. 1995. “The Profitability of U.S. Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Markets.” Journal of International Money and Finance 14: 823–844.
Noel, Maurer. 2002. The Power and the Money—The Mexican Financial System, 1876–1932. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press.
Norges Bank. 2004. “The Norwegian Banking Crisis.” Ed. Thorvald G. Moe, Jon A. Solheim, and Bent Vale. Occasional Paper 33. Norges Bank, Oslo.
North, Douglass, and Barry Weingast. 1988. “Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth Century England.” In Empirical Studies in Institutional Change, ed. L. Alston, P. Eggertsson, and D. North. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Nurkse, Ragnar. 1946. The Course and Control of Inflation: A Revue of Monetary Experience in Europe after World War I. Geneva: League of Nations.
Obstfeld, Maurice. 1994. “The Logic of Currency Crises.” Cahiers Economiques et Monetaires 43: 189–213.
———. 1996. “Models of Currency Crises with Self-Sustaining Features.” European Economic Review 40 (April): 1037–1048.
Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 1996. Foundations of International Macroeconomics. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
———. 2001. “Perspectives on OECD Capital Market Integration: Implications for U.S. Current Account Adjustment.” In Global Economic Integration: Opportunities and Challenges. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Mo. March. Pp. 169–208.
———. 2005. “Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1: 67–146.
———. 2007. “The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited.” In G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, ed. Richard Clarida. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
———. 2009. “The US Current Account and the Global Financial Crisis.” Draft of a paper prepared for the Ohlin Lectures in International Economics, Harvard University.
Obstfeld, Maurice, and Alan Taylor. 2004. Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis, and Growth. Japan–U.S. Center Sanwa Monographs on International Financial Markets. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Øksendal, Lars. 2007. “Re-Examining Norwegian Monetary Policy in the 1930s.” Manuscript. Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Bergen.
Oxford Latin American Economic History Database. Available at http://oxlad.qeh.ox.ac.uk/references.php.
Ozmucur, Suleyman, and Sevket Pamuk. 2002. “Real Wages and Standards of Living in the Ottoman Empire, 1489–1914.” Journal of Economic History 62 (June): 292–321.
Page, William. 1919. Commerce and Industry: Tables of Statistics for the British Empire from 1815. London: Constable.
Pamuk, Sevket. 2005. “Prices and Wages in Istanbul, 1469–1914.” Working Memorandum. International Institute of Social History, Amsterdam.
Persson, Torsten, and Guido Tabellini. 1990. Macroeconomic Policy, Credibility and Politics. London: Routledge.
Philippon, Thomas. 2007. “Why Has the U.S. Financial Sector Grown So Much? The Role of Corporate Finance.” NBER Working Paper 13405. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass. September.
Pick, Franz. Various years, 1955–1982. Pick’s Currency Yearbook. New Yo
rk: Pick.
Prasad, Eswar, Kenneth S. Rogoff, Shang-Jin Wei, and M. Ayhan Kose. 2003. “Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence.” IMF Occasional Paper 220. International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.
Purcell, John F. H., and Jeffrey A. Kaufman. 1993. The Risks of Sovereign Lending: Lessons from History. New York: Salomon Brothers.
Qian, Rong, and Carmen M. Reinhart. 2009. “Graduation from Crises and Volatility: Elusive Goals.” Working mimeograph. University of Maryland, College Park.
Quinn, Stephen. 2004. “Accounting for the Early British Funded Debt, 1693–1786.” Working paper. Mimeograph. Texas Christian University.
Rajan, Raghuram, Enrica Detragiache, and Giovanni Dell’Ariccia. 2008. “The Real Effect of Banking Crises.” Journal of Financial Intermediation 17: 89–112.
Reinhart, Carmen M. 2002. “Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings.” World Bank Economic Review 16 (2): 151–170.
Reinhart, Carmen M., and Vincent R. Reinhart. 2008. “Is the U.S. Too Big to Fail?” VoxEU, November 17. Available at http://www.voxeu.com/index.php?q=node/2568.
———. 2009. “Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present.” In NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics 2008, ed. Jeffrey Frankel and Francesco Giavazzi. Chicago: Chicago University Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research. Pp. 1–54.
Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2002a. “FDI to Africa: The Role of Price Stability and Currency Instability.” In Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2002: The New Reform Agenda, ed. Boris Pleskovic and Nicholas Stern. Washington, D.C.: World Bank/Oxford University Press. Pp. 247–282.
———. 2002b. “The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation.” NBER Working Paper 8963. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass. May.
———. 2004. “The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 119 (1): 1–48.
———. 2008a. “This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises.” NBER Working Paper 13882. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass. March.