More Guns Less Crime
Page 41
20, 135-38, 152 and crime trends, 70, 73-75, 74t, 76t defined, 250 and deterrence, 160 discretionary and nondiscretionary,
144-45, 277nnl0-12 economic benefits from, 54,55t, 56,160 and mass public shootings, 100—102,
115,194-97,236-38 and specific types of crime, 77t, 78t, 79t, 97-100, 98t, 133-34, 140t, 142t, 143t
concealed-handgun laws (continued) spillover effect, 93t, 94t, 162 in states, 46t, 58-60, 118-20, 142-43,
151-52 and suicide, 113 and urban areas, 161 variation across states, 83, 86, 87t—89t variation in effect across counties, 62-
63, 64t-67t variation in effect across states, 75, 79,
80t, 81, 82t, 280-81nl6 concealed-handgun permits celebrities with, 15 and crime rates, 75-81, 103-9, 104t,
105t, 108t economic benefits, 109—10, 115 granted by three states, 75t in populous counties, 63—65, 227—30 predicting permit rates, 174—76 revocations of, 14, 219—22, 231 concealed handguns
and accidental deaths, 54 benefits for women v. men, 20 and blacks, 68-70 and deterrence, 5—7 and law-abiding citizens, 275n22 spillover effect, 5, 91-94 and training, 175-76, 231-232 Cook, Philip, 11, 267nn43, 46-47, 291n41 Cosby, Bill, 15 Cramer, Clayton, 133, 225 crime
cycles, 73, 75, 130-31, 207-9 geographic variation in prevalence,
27t trends, and concealed-handgun laws,
70, 73-75, 74t, 76t, 209-10 crime rate
and additional police officers, 291n3 and arrest rate, 103-6, 115—16 and conviction rate, 106, 115—16 defined, 250 effect of concealed-handgun laws v.
arrest rate, 118-19 effect of demographic characteristics
on, 56-57, 259t-62t, 277nl8 impact of handgun laws and arrest
rate, aggregate data, 59t, 611 increases in, 40, 43 and nonhandgun variables, 56—57 and prison population, 273nn9—10 and sentence length, 107—9
variation across states and counties
compared, 30t See also concealed-handgun laws, and
specific types of crime criminals
characteristics of, 8—9, 266nn33—34 motivation of, 4-5, 15-16, 19 criticisms of and responses to original
study adoption dates, 132-33 arrest rate, 146, 154—55 causality, 153—54 coefficients of demographic variables,
143-44 crime cycles, 130-31, 207-9 crime rates, 135—38 cross-state comparisons, 151—52 deterrent effect, 156 discretionary v. nondiscretionary,
144-45 inclusion of Florida, 138—41 inclusion of Maine, 142 linkage of ownership and crime, 152-53 misleading graphs, 146—47 murders of youths and adults, 147-48 public places, 150-51 putative assumptions, 131-32 robberies, 133-34, 215-17 scale of changes, 129—30 substitution of property crimes for
rape, 134 variation of laws across states, 142—43 victim characteristics, 148—50
Daly, Martin, 265n28
data
basic, 43-49
city-level, 190-94
county v. state-level, 28—33
demographics in U.S. counties, 257t
demographic variables, 143—44
determining gun ownership, 275n2
difficulties in interpreting, 26—29,
283-84nl effect of demographic characteristics
on crime, 259t-62t national sample means and standard
deviations, 256t—57t sources of, 19, 43, 252-55
defensive gun use. See gun use, defensive
Department of Commerce, Regional Economic Information System, 48
Department of Health and Human Services, Mortality Detail Records, 97, 111
Department of Justice, 164
Expenditure and Employment Data,
118,253 National Crime Victimization Survey,
4, 11 National Institute of Justice, 266-67n43
deterrence, 5, 16-18, 267n47
of arrests across counties, 60, 611
and case for concealed handguns, 5—7,
26 of concealed handguns, 156
Dezbakhsh, Hashem, 302n83, 304nl06
Dilulio, John J., 266n36, 282n32
discretionary concealed-handgun laws. See concealed-handgun laws
Donohue, John, 213-15, 217-18, 224-30, 303nn87-89
Dunn, John, 14
economic costs of crime, 54—56 Edinboro, Pennsylvania, 194-95, 236—37 Ehrlich, Isaac, 117, 118, 275n26, 295n24 empirical evidence basic data, 43—49
concealed-handgun laws as explanatory variable, 117—20 controlling for other gun laws, 84t—
85t, 197-202 controlling for robbery and burglary
rates, 71t-72t factoring in cocaine prices, 279-80n8 general issues, 25, 26, 33—35, 50—51,
94-96 putative assumptions, 131—32 results reexamined with additional
data, 86, 90t, 90-91 sensitivity of results, 57, 184-90 using crime rates to explain other
crime rates, 70, 71t-72t variation of time trends over states,
57-58 See also concealed-handgun laws; data; methodology endogeneity problem, 22, 24—25, 146 England, 241
Federal Bureau of Investigation
Uniform Crime Reports, 7, 26—28, 33, 44t-45t, 47, 86, 163, 252-53
Supplementary Homicide Reports, 97, 252
Finke, Doug, 148
Florida
change in murder rate, 108t, 139t as special case, 138-41, 227, 290n27
General Accounting Office, 199 General Social Survey, 37—40 Gerchick, Cari, 254 Giuliani, Rudolph W., 6 Glaeser, Edward, 48, 277nl9 Glick, Susan, 122-23, 287n3 Grabowski, Steve, 86 graphs, misleading, 146—47 gun ban, complete, 164—65 gun control
arguments for, 9—10, 267nn43—47
aversion to open debate of, 126—28
and blacks, 68-70, 282nn26-28
studies of, 21—25
supporters of, 14 gun culture, America as, 1 "gun-free" zones or "safe-zones," 167,
240 gun locks, 9-10, 266-67nn40-41, 43,
282n29 gun ownership
benefits for women and blacks, 62, 161, 281n23
and crime rates, 113—14, 114t
difficulty of international comparisons, 113
demographics of, 37t, 37-40, 38t, 39t, 40t, 41t-42t, 267-68n48, 276n7
determining, 275n2
increase in, 36—37, 263nl, 270—71n77
police views on, 13—14, 269—70nn66— 69, 271n79
rules making more difficult, 163—64, 270n73, 292nn7, 9, 11, 13, 15 gun use, defensive, 2-5, 11—13, 263—
64nn7-15, 17, 268nn48-50, 269nn63-
64, 66, 281n24
illustrations of, 1-6, 12-13, 15, 149, 159-60, 263nn4, 7-9, 264nn8-13, 269nn63, 64, 68, 270nn69, 77, 283n42
Handgun Control, Inc., 123, 124, 139, 157-58, 202, 205-7, 216, 219, 231, 233, 298n56, 302n81
handguns. See concealed-handgun laws; concealed-handgun permits; concealed handguns
Hawkins, Gordon, 129, 150, 151, 152, 156, 217
Haxby, John, 2
Heckman, James J., 211
Hemenway, David, 207—8
Herman, Alexis, 68
Holmes, John, 14
Hotz, Joseph, 211
illegal drug use, 213—15 Illinois Council Against Handgun Violence, 124 Ivins, Molly, 206-7, 301n76
Johnson, Fay, 149
Kellerman, Arthur, 23-24, 157
Kelling, George, 26
Kleck, Gary, 4, 68, 218-19, 263n5, 267n47,
268nn49-50, 273n4, 274n20 Kopel, David, 133, 225 Kotowski, Dan, 124, 288n8 Krug, Alan, 254
Landes, William, 195, 273nl0 Lawrence Research group, 14 Learner, Edward E., 295n22 Levitt, Steven, 146, 285n21, 290n31 Lewis, Dawn, 263n3
Ludwig, Jens, 122, 133, 134, 144, 145, 147-48, 157, 267n43
Maine, as special case, 142, 227
Mariel boat lift, 107, 139
Marvell, Thomas, 49
mass public shootings, 100-103, lOlt, 102t, 284nn4-6
McManus, Walter S., 295n22
methodology
aggregate variables, 60, 278—79n3,
281n20 case study method, 24—25 causality, 153—54 classification of states, 279n5 and crime rates w
ith other variables
uncontrolled, 280-81nl6 cross-sectional studies, 22—24, 273n3 cross-state comparisons, 151—52 determining gun ownership, 275n2
endogeneity problem, 22, 24—25, 146
endogenous and exogenous, 272—73n2
polls, 276nn5, 7-8
regression analysis, 245—48
statistical significance, 248—49
surveys, 21
time-series studies, 22—24, 273n3
relation of crime and arrest rate, 275n26 Moody, Carlisle, 49, 254 Morin, Richard, 139, 142 murders
acquaintance, 7t, 7-8, 148-50, 265n28
after adoption of concealed-handgun law, 77t, 108t, 136t, 139t
differential effects on youths and adults, 147-48
effect of concealed-handgun laws on murderers' behavior, 97-98, 98t, 99t, 100
over time, 276—77n9
per 100,000 people, 44t
variation across states and counties, 31t, 282n25 Mustard, David, 147, 148, 154, 156, 286n2 Myrick, Joel, 194-95, 236-37
Nagin, Daniel, 128-29, 131, 135-41, 142-
43, 146, 155, 156, 290nn28-29 National Crime Victimization Survey, 62,
264-65nl4, 268n49 National Institute of Justice, 54—56, 114 National Opinion Research Center, 14 National Research Council, National
Academy of Sciences, 18 National Rifle Association, 254 news media, and guns, 1—2, 9, 266n37,
288n5 nondiscretionary concealed-handgun law.
See concealed-handgun laws
Olin Foundation, 123-26, 202-3, 289 one-gun-a-month law, 198-201 original study
aversion to open debate, 126—28,
286-9n2 defense of, 124-26, 156-57, 287n3,
289nl2 general attacks on, 122-24, 128-29,
156-57, 286n2, 288n6, 289nl3 specific criticisms and responses. See criticisms of and responses to original study
Pearl, Mississippi, 194-95, 236
Peltzman, Sam, 33
Plassman, Florenz, 232
police officers, and crime rate, 291n3
police policies
broken-windows strategy, 190, 194
community-oriented policing, 190, 194
consent decrees, affirmative action, 190, 191, 203
problem-oriented policing, 190, 194 poll data, 36-42, 222-23, 230-31 Polsby, Daniel, 266n30, 272nl press bias, 236—38 property crimes
after adoption of concealed-handgun law, 54, 78t, 81, 279n4
and demographic factors, 56—57
per 100,000 people, 45t
substitution for rape, 134
Rand, M. Kristen, 123-24, 126, 288n7 rapes
after adoption of concealed-handgun
law, 137t per 100,000 people, 44t substitution of property crimes for,
134 variation across states and counties, 32t Regional Economic Information System,
254 regression analysis, explanation of, 245—
48,251 Reno, Janet, 267n43 resistance to criminals, advisability of,
3-4, 264-65nnl3-14 robberies
effect of concealed-handgun laws on, 78t, 133-34,137t,142t, 215-17, 274nl6,279n4 per 100,000 people, 45t Roth, Randy, 126-28 Rubin, Paul H., 302n83, 304nl06 Russia, 241
Sacerdote, Bruce, 48
safe-storage laws, 198—201
scale, questions about, 129—30
Schalch, Kathleen, 147
Schumer, Charles, 123, 124, 125, 126, 288n6
Second Amendment, 21,165,272nl, 293nl8 self-protection. See gun use, defensive Selleck, Tom, 15 Sentencing Commission, 128 sentencing penalties, increasing for crimes
involving a gun, 81, 83, 84t-85t Serafin, Barry, 123 Simon, William, letter by, 124-26 Smith, Tom, 37 Southwick, Lawrence, 4 spillover effect, 5, 91-93, 93t, 94t, 161 statistical significance, explanation of,
248-49, 250-51 Stone, Brandon, 127—28 Strand, James, 236—37 substitution effect, 5, 6—7, 265n22 Sugarmann, Josh, 148-50, 287n3,
288nn7-8 suicide, 10, 112, 114, 115,267n
Teepen, Tom, 207, 301n75 Tennenbaum, Abraham, 6 Texans Against Gun Violence, 263n3 Tideman, Nicolaus, 232
University of Chicago Press, 302n78 Uviller, H. Richard, 267n47
victims, characteristics of, 99t, 148-50 Violence Policy Center, 122, 123 violent crime
after adoption of concealed-handgun law, 77t, 136t, 140t
per 100,000 people, 44t
waiting period, 49, 81, 106-7, 140, 162, 163,
278n24, 283n42, 292n7 Webster, Daniel, 128, 130, 131-32, 134, 141,
142, 146-47 Weil, Doug, 267n5, 286-87n2, 288n4,
300n70 Whitely, John, 201 Wilson, James Q., 26, 266n34, 274nl4, 292-
93nl6 Wilson, Margo, 265n28 Woodward, Mike, 254
Yassky, David, 202
Zimring, Franklin, 129, 150, 151, 152, 156
Does owning or carrying guns deter violent crime? Or does it simply allow more other? Legal scholar John Lott directly challenges our common perceptions about gun control and presents the most rigorous and comprehensive analysis ever done on crime statistics and right-to-carry laws. This timely, provocative work reaches a startling conclusion: more guns mean less crime. In this new paperback edition, Lott has expanded the research to include the most up-to-date data now available from states that passed right-to-carry and other gun laws since the book's publication as well as new city-level statistics.
ight-tc Ltistics
evid
ard evidence that even politicians may have to stop and pay attention. More Guns, Less Crime is an exhaustive analysis of the effect of gun possession on crime rates."
—James Bovard, Wall Street Journal
itically correct' vested interests are willing to go to t with them. Lott has done us all a service by his Ltful, scholarly approach to a highly controversial issue." —Milton Friedman
e tha
mce that yet another liberal policy is a cause of the Bntly changed the terms of debate on gun con-■mely. ... A model of the meticulous application of economics and statistics to law and policy."
O. McGinnis. National Review
"More Guns, Less Crime is one of the most important books of our time. It provides thoroughly researched facts on a life-and-death subject that is too often discussed on the basis of unsubstantiated beliefs and hysterical emotions."
—Thomas Sowell
"His empirical analysis sets a standard that will be difficult to match. . . . This has got to be the most extensive empirical study of crime deterrence that has been done to date."
— Public Choice
"For anyone with an open mind on either side of this subject this book will provide a thorough grounding. It is also likely to be the standard reference on the subject for years to come."
—Stan Liebowitz, Dallas Morning News
John R. Lott, Jr., is senior research scholar in the School of Law at Yale University. He was the chief economist at the United States Sentencing Commission during 1988 and 1989, and has published over eighty articles in academic journals. He is the author of Are Predatory Commitments Credible? Who Should the Courts Believe? published by the University of Chicago Press.
The University of Chicago Press
ISBN
www.press.uchicago.edu
EEL,
90000
9 '780226 493640