Book of Odds
Page 27
But things were about to change. Just the year before, Smoking and Health: Report of the Advisory Committee of the Surgeon General of the Public Health Service for the first time publicly linked smoking with cancer and other health risks—leading to the Surgeon General’s warning labels that are now slapped on every pack.
SOURCE: Health, United States, 2008: With Special Feature on the Health of Young Adults, Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, March 2009.
The odds an adult has ever been diagnosed with nicotine dependence disorder: 1 in 3.4
SOURCE: Harvard School of Medicine, “National Comorbidity Survey (NCS-R) Appendix Tables,” July 19, 2007.
Cigarette Smoking Over Time
The odds an adult smokes:
SOURCES: Health, United States, 2008: With Special Feature on the Health of Young Adults, Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, March 2009. Health, United States, 2008: With Special Feature on Death and Dying, Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, February 2011.
The odds an adult smoker tried to quit in the past year: 1 in 2.4
SOURCE: Data from the National Health Interview Survey, National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD, March 2010, in “Health Behaviors of Adults: United States, 2005–2007,” Vital and Health Statistics 10(245).
Smoking by Age, Gender, Region, Education
The odds a man 18–24 is a smoker: 1 in 3.6
The odds a man 25–34 is a smoker: 1 in 3.6
The odds a man 35–44 is a smoker: 1 in 3.9
The odds a man 45–64 is a smoker: 1 in 4.1
The odds a man 65 or older is a smoker: 1 in 10.5
The odds a woman 18–24 is a smoker: 1 in 6.4
The odds a woman 25–34 is a smoker: 1 in 4.6
The odds a woman 35–44 is a smoker: 1 in 4.7
The odds a woman 45–64 is a smoker: 1 in 5.1
The odds a woman 65 or older is a smoker: 1 in 10.5
The odds an adult with less than a high school diploma is a smoker: 1 in 3.4
The odds an adult with a high school diploma or GED is a smoker: 1 in 3.4
The odds an adult with some college education is a smoker: 1 in 4.6
The odds an adult with a bachelor’s degree or higher is a smoker: 1 in 11.1
The odds an adult in the Northeast is a smoker: 1 in 5
The odds an adult in the Midwest is a smoker: 1 in 4.3
The odds an adult in the South is a smoker: 1 in 4.6
The odds an adult in the West is a smoker: 1 in 6.2
SOURCES: Health, United States, 2008: With Special Feature on Death and Dying, Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, February 2011. JR Pleis, BW Ward, JW Lucas, “Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009,” Vital and Health Statistics 10(249), 2010.
1 in 3.9
The odds a high school student will use smokeless tobacco, cigarettes, or cigars in a month.
SOURCE: DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, J Ross, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2009,” Surveillance Summaries, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 59(SS-5), 2010.
GENDER WARS
The odds a woman is a former smoker are 1 in 5.6 vs. 1 in 3.9 for a man.
SOURCE: JR Pleis, BW Ward, JW Lucas, “Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009,” Vital and Health Statistics 10(249), 2010.
The Toll
Cigarette smoking causes 443,000 premature deaths in the United States each year and about twenty times that number suffer from a serious smoking-caused illness.
This means that about 1 in 5 premature deaths each year are caused by smoking. These are about the same odds as an NFL field goal attempt will be unsuccessful. There is no safe level of exposure to cigarette smoke.
SOURCES: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Tobacco-Related Mortality,” Smoking & Tobacco Use Fact Sheet, http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/health_effects/tobacco_related_mortality/index.htm. US Department of Health and Human Services, How Tobacco Smoke Causes Disease: The Biology and Behavioral Basis for Smoking-Attributable Disease: A Report of the Surgeon General, Atlanta, GA: US Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health, 2010. Book of Odds estimate based on ESPN NFL Player Kicking Statistics—2010, http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/kicking/sort/fieldGoalPct/qualified/false/count/41.
Cancer Deaths Due to Smoking
The US Surgeon General and US Department of Health and Human Services have determined that “the evidence is sufficient to infer a causal relationship between smoking and [the following types of cancer]”:
Bladder
Cervical
Esophageal
Kidney and renal
Laryngeal
Leukemia
Lung and bronchus
Oral
Pancreatic
Stomach
The following table shows the lifetime odds of getting a given cancer and the odds that a death from it was caused by smoking.
SOURCES: N Howlader, AM Noone, M Krapcho, N Neyman, R Aminou, SF Altekruse, et al., eds., SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975–2008, Bethesda, MD: National Cancer Institute, http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2008/, based on November 2010 SEER data submission, posted to the SEER website, 2011. US Department of Health and Human Services, The Health Consequences of Smoking: A Report of the Surgeon General, Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2004.
Or Did You Think It Was Zero?
The odds a person 18 or older will die of lung cancer caused by secondhand smoke: 1 in 62,900
SOURCE: B Adhikari, J Kahende, A Malarcher, T Pechacek, V Tong, “Smoking-Attributable Mortality, Years of Potential Life Lost, and Productivity Losses—United States, 2000–2004,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 57(45), 2008.
The Odds a Current Smoker Will Be
Diagnosed with Disease
The odds a current smoker 18 or older will:
be diagnosed with a smoking-attributable disease in a year: 1 in 9
be diagnosed with chronic bronchitis in a year: 1 in 18.5
be diagnosed with emphysema in a year: 1 in 38.2
have a heart attack in a year: 1 in 67.6
have a stroke in a year: 1 in 127
be diagnosed with any cancer except lung cancer in a year: 1 in 136
be diagnosed with lung cancer in a year: 1 in 1,056
SOURCE: A Hyland, C Vena, J Bauer, Q Li, GA Giovino, J Yang, et al., “Cigarette Smoking–Attributable Morbidity—United States, 2000,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 52(35), 2003.
Number of Cigarettes Smoked in a Day
The odds a smoker 18 or older has:
fewer than 15 cigarettes a day: 1 in 1.9
15–24 cigarettes a day: 1 in 2.8
25–34 cigarettes a day: 1 in 14.7
35 or more cigarettes a day: 1 in 19.6
SOURCE: Data from the National Health Interview Survey, National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD, March 2010, in “Health Behaviors of Adults: United States, 2005–2007,” Vital and Health Statistics 10(245).
Alcohol
The Odds of Being a Teetotaler
The odds an adult is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 5
THE ODDS:
a Pacific Island adult is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 2.1
an Asian adult is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 2.3
a Hispanic adult is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 3.3
a black adult is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 3.4
an American Indian or Native Alaskan adult is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 4.1
a non-Hispanic adult is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 5.4
a white adult is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 i
n 5.7
an adult with less than a high school diploma is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 3.3
an adult with a high school diploma or GED is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 5
an adult with some college education is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 6.8
an adult with a bachelor’s degree or more is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 7.5
an adult with a family income less than 1 times the poverty level is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 3.2
an adult with a family income 1–2 times the poverty level is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 3.8
an adult with a family income 2 or more times the poverty level is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 6.3
a widowed adult is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 3.3
a never-married adult is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 3.8
a married adult is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 5.4
a separated or divorced adult is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 6.8
a cohabitating adult is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 9.3
an adult in the Northeast is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 5.4
an adult in the Midwest is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 6.1
an adult in the South is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 4.3
an adult in the West is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol: 1 in 4.7
SOURCE: JR Pleis, BW Ward, JW Lucas, “Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009,” Vital and Health Statistics 10(249), 2010.
The Odds of Being a Current, Binge, or Heavy Drinker by Age
SOURCE: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Results from the 2009 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, vol. 1, Summary of National Findings, Office of Applied Studies, NSDUH Series H-38A, HHS Publication No. SMA 10-4586 Findings, 2010.
The odds a man thinks that the type of drink a man orders at a bar reflects his masculinity: 1 in 1.9
SOURCE: AskMen.com, “Part II: Lifestyle,” The Great Male Survey, 2011 Edition, http://askmen.com/specials/2011_great_male_survey/.
The odds an adult has ever been diagnosed with alcohol abuse disorder: 1 in 7.6
SOURCE: Harvard School of Medicine, “National Comorbidity Survey (NCS-R) Appendix Tables,” July 19, 2007.
GENDER WARS
The odds a man is a lifetime abstainer from alcohol are 1 in 7.2 vs. 1 in 3.9 for a woman.
The odds a man is a regular drinker are 1 in 1.6 vs. 1 in 2.3 for a woman.
Note: A current drinker had at least 12 drinks in his/her lifetime or in any one year and had a drink between 1 to 365 times in the past year. A regular drinker had at least 12 drinks in the past year.
SOURCE: JR Pleis, BW Ward, JW Lucas, “Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009,” Vital and Health Statistics 10(249), 2010.
Badass Boomers
Baby boomers, those born from 1946 to 1964, have changed societal norms at every age group they have passed through. This generation created Woodstock, free love, and student protests that shut down many universities after the Kent State shooting in 1970.
Baby boomers are middle-aged, but some continue the habits they began in their youth. The odds a baby boomer is a binge drinker or a heavy drinker are each 1 in 16.7. The odds a baby boomer uses illicit drugs are 1 in 17.5.
SOURCES: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Results from the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, vol. 1, Summary of National Findings, Office of Applied Studies, NSDUH Series H-38A, HHS Publication No. SMA 10-4586 Findings, 2011. LM Howden, JA Meyer, “Age and Sex Composition: 2010,” 2010 Census Briefs, US Census Bureau, May 2011.
The Odds of Going to a Bar
The odds a man never goes to a bar: 1 in 2.1
The odds a man will go to a bar several times a week: 1 in 10.1
The odds a man will go to a bar almost daily: 1 in 100
The odds a woman never goes to a bar: 1 in 2
The odds a woman will go to a bar several times a week: 1 in 21.3
The odds a woman will go to a bar almost daily: 1 in 333
The odds an adult 18–29:
never goes to a bar: 1 in 2.9
will go to a bar several times a week: 1 in 5.8
will go to a bar almost daily: 1 in 111
The odds an adult 30–49:
never goes to a bar: 1 in 2.6
will go to a bar several times a week: 1 in 17.9
will go to a bar almost daily: 1 in 250
The odds an adult 50–64:
never goes to a bar: 1 in 1.8
will go to a bar several times a week: 1 in 19.6
will go to a bar almost daily: 1 in 250
The odds an adult 65 or older:
never goes to a bar: 1 in 1.2
will go to a bar several times a week: 1 in 76.9
will go to a bar almost daily approaches 1 in 6,000,000
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on JA Davis, TW Smith, PV Marsden, General Social Surveys, 1972–2008, [CUMULATIVE FILE] [Computer file] ICPSR04691, v. 1., Chicago: National Opinion Research Center, 2009 [producer]; Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut/Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributors].
The Odds of Alcohol-Attributed Deaths by Gender
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimate based on data in Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Alcohol Related Disease Impact (ARDI) application, 2008, http://apps.nccd.cdc.gov/DACH_ARDI/Default.aspx.
GENDER WARS
The odds a man will die from an alcohol-attributable cause are 1 in 17.2 vs. 1 in 43.7 for a woman. For an alcohol-attributable acute cause, the odds are 1 in 37.2 for a man but only 1 in 107 for a woman. For an alcohol-attributable chronic cause, the odds are 1 in 32.2 for a man and 1 in 73.9 for a woman.
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimate based on data in Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Alcohol Related Disease Impact (ARDI) application, 2008, http://apps.nccd.cdc.gov/DACH_ARDI/Default.aspx.
DRIVING UNDER THE INFLUENCE
The odds an arrest for driving under the influence will be of a man are 1 in 1.3 vs. 1 in 4.6 for a woman. The odds a driver involved in a fatal motor vehicle accident with a blood alcohol level of 0.08 or higher will be a man are 1 in 1.2 vs. 1 in 6.2 for a woman.
SOURCES: Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime in the United States, 2009, http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/index.html. National Center for Statistics and Analysis, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, “Alcohol-Impaired Driving,” Traffic Safety Facts, 2009 Data (DOT HS 811 385).
Drugs
The Odds of Illicit Drug Use
in the Past Month by Age
The odds an adolescent 12–13 used illicit drugs 1 in 25
The odds a teenager 14–15 used illicit drugs 1 in 10.8
The odds a teenager 16–17 used illicit drugs 1 in 6
The odds an adult 18–20 used illicit drugs 1 in 4.3
The odds an adult 21–25 used illicit drugs 1 in 4.9
The odds an adult 26–29 used illicit drugs 1 in 6.8
The odds an adult 30–34 used illicit drugs 1 in 7.8
The odds an adult 35–39 used illicit drugs 1 in 12.3
The odds an adult 40–44 used illicit drugs 1 in 14.5
The odds an adult 45–49 used illicit drugs 1 in 13.9
The odds an adult 50–54 used illicit drugs 1 in 13.9
The odds an adult 55–59 used illicit drugs 1 in 24.4
The odds an adult 60–64 used illicit drugs 1 in 37
The odds an adult 65 or older used illicit drugs 1 in 90.9
Note: Illicit drugs include marijuana/hashish, cocaine (including crack), heroin, hallucinogens, inhalants, or prescription-type psychotherapeutics used nonmedically.
SOURCE: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Res
ults from the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, vol. 1, Summary of National Findings, Office of Applied Studies, NSDUH Series H-38A, HHS Publication No. SMA 10-4586 Findings, 2011.
Racial/Ethnic Differences in
Illicit Drug Use
in the Last Month
The odds a white person 12 or older used illicit drugs: 1 in 11
The odds an African American person 12 or older used illicit drugs: 1 in 9.3
The odds an Asian person 12 or older used illicit drugs: 1 in 9.3
The odds a Hispanic person 12 or older used illicit drugs: 1 in 12.3
SOURCE: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Results from the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, vol. 1, Summary of National Findings, Office of Applied Studies, NSDUH Series H-38A, HHS Publication No. SMA 10-4586 Findings, 2011.
The Odds of Illicit Drug Use in the Last Month by Type Among Persons 12 or Older
Marijuana and hashish: 1 in 14.5
Any prescription-type psychotherapeutic drugs used nonmedically: 1 in 37:
Pain relievers, including OxyContin: 1 in 50
Tranquilizers: 1 in 111
Stimulants, including methamphetamine: 1 in 250
Sedatives: 1 in 1,000
Cocaine, including crack cocaine: 1 in 167
Hallucinogens, including LSD, PCP, and ecstasy: 1 in 200
SOURCE: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Results from the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, vol. 1, Summary of National Findings, Office of Applied Studies, NSDUH Series H-38A, HHS Publication No. SMA 10-4586 Findings, 2011.
Marijuana
ODDS COUPLE