Book of Odds
Page 28
Seeing Double?
The split between the legalizers and those opposed is quite close:
1 in 2.2 believes in legalizing the possession of small amounts of marijuana for personal use.
1 in 1.9 Americans does not believe in legalizing the possession of small amounts of marijuana for personal use.
SOURCE: Gary Langer, “Changing Views on Social Issues: Allemande Left. Allemande Right,” ABC News/Washington Post Polls: Hot Button Issues, April 24, 2009.
GENDER WARS
The Odds of Marijuana Use in the Last Month
The odds a man used marijuana are 1 in 12 vs. 1 in 15.6 for a woman.
SOURCE: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, 2011. Results from the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, vol. 1, Summary of National Findings, Office of Applied Studies, NSDUH Series H-38A, HHS Publication No. SMA 10-4586 Findings, 2011.
I Get High with a Little Help
How do nonmedical users of prescription-type pain relievers 12 or older obtain them?
Given by friend or relative: 1 in 1.8
Through a prescription from a single doctor: 1 in 5.8
Purchased from a friend or relative: 1 in 8.8
Stolen from a friend or relative: 1 in 20.8
Purchased from a drug dealer or stranger: 1 in 22.7
Purchased on the Internet: 1 in 250
SOURCE: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Results from the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, vol. 1, Summary of National Findings, Office of Applied Studies, NSDUH Series H-38A, HHS Publication No. SMA 10-4586 Findings, 2011.
The odds a US banknote contains traces of cocaine:
1 in 1.1
SOURCE: D. Biello, “Cocaine Contaminates Majority of US Currency,” Scientific American, August 16, 2009, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=cocaine-contaminates.
Fatal Overdoses
The odds a person will die from taking too many drugs—both legal and illegal—have more than doubled from 1 in 25,010 in 1999 to 1 in 10,870 in 2007, the latest year for which data are available. Many deaths are attributed to the mixing of drugs.
Mortality rates are highest among middle-aged adults. New Mexico has the highest rate of unintentional poisonings (1 in 6,691) and Maryland has the lowest (1 in 99,020).
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Compressed Mortality File, 1999 and 2006 data.
CHAPTER 10
BELIEFS AND FEARS
REALLY?
The odds an adult believes the government staged or faked the Apollo moon landing: 1 in 16.7
SOURCE: Gallup News Service, “Did Men Really Land on the Moon?,” Time/CNN/Yankelovich Partners Poll, February 15, 2001.
Changes in Religious Denominations, 1990 vs. 2008
The Institute for the Study of Secularism in Society and Culture conducts periodic studies on the religious affiliation of people in the United States. Between 1990 and 2008 (the most recent year for which data are available) the most startling changes were in the percentages of the adult population who:
• do not affiliate with any religion (from 8% in 1990 to 15% in 2008).
• consider themselves mainline Christians (from 19% in 1990 to 13% in 2008).
The percentage who consider themselves Christian but do not affiliate with any denomination has remained about the same at 14% of the adult population. In 2008 that group was fourth overall, displacing mainline Christians.
1990
The odds an adult is Catholic: 1 in 3.8
The odds an adult is Baptist: 1 in 5.2
The odds an adult is mainline Christian: 1 in 5.4
The odds an adult is Methodist: 1 in 12.4
The odds an adult is Lutheran: 1 in 19.3
The odds an adult is Presbyterian: 1 in 35.2
The odds an adult is Episcopalian or Anglican: 1 in 57.7
The odds an adult is a member of the United Church of Christ: 1 in 401
The odds an adult is a Christian (generic): 1 in 6.8
The odds an adult is a Christian but not a specific denomination: 1 in 21.2
The odds an adult is a Protestant but not a specific denomination: 1 in 10.2
The odds an adult is an Evangelical or born-again Christian: 1 in 321
The odds an adult has no religion: 1 in 12.2
The odds an adult is Pentecostal or Charismatic: 1 in 31.1
The odds an adult is Pentecostal: 1 in 56.3
The odds an adult is a member of the Assemblies of God: 1 in 284
The odds an adult is a member of the Church of God: 1 in 297
The odds an adult is a Protestant denomination: 1 in 10.2
The odds an adult is a member of the Churches of Christ: 1 in 99.2
The odds an adult is a Jehovah’s Witness: 1 in 127
The odds an adult is a Seventh-day Adventist: 1 in 263
The odds an adult is Jewish: 1 in 55.9
The odds an adult is a Mormon or Latter-Day Saint: 1 in 70.5
The odds an adult is a part of a new religious movement: 1 in 135
The odds an adult is a member of an Eastern religion: 1 in 255
The odds an adult is Buddhist: 1 in 434
The odds an adult is Muslim: 1 in 333
2008
The odds an adult is Catholic: 1 in 4
The odds an adult is Baptist: 1 in 6.3
The odds an adult is mainline Christian: 1 in 7.8
The odds an adult is Methodist: 1 in 20.1
The odds an adult is Lutheran: 1 in 26
The odds an adult is Presbyterian: 1 in 48.3
The odds an adult is Episcopalian or Anglican: 1 in 94.9
The odds an adult is a member of the United Church of Christ: 1 in 310
The odds an adult is a Christian (generic): 1 in 6.8
The odds an adult is a Christian but not a specific denomination: 1 in 28.4
The odds an adult is a Protestant but not a specific denomination: 1 in 43.5
The odds an adult is an Evangelical or born-again Christian: 1 in 106
The odds an adult has no religion: 1 in 6.7
The odds an adult is Pentecostal or Charismatic: 1 in 28.7
The odds an adult is Pentecostal: 1 in 42.1
The odds an adult is a member of the Assemblies of God: 1 in 281
The odds an adult is a member of the Church of God: 1 in 344
The odds an adult is a member of a Protestant denomination: 1 in 32.3
The odds an adult is a member of the Churches of Christ: 1 in 119
The odds an adult is a Jehovah’s Witness: 1 in 119
The odds an adult is a Seventh-day Adventist: 1 in 243
The odds an adult is Jewish: 1 in 85.1
The odds an adult is a Mormon or Latter-Day Saint: 1 in 72.3
The odds an adult is a part of a new religious movement: 1 in 81.4
The odds an adult is a member of an Eastern religion: 1 in 116
The odds an adult is Buddhist: 1 in 192
The odds an adult is Muslim: 1 in 169
The odds an adult is Atheist in 2008: 1 in 140.8
The odds an adult is Agnostic in 2008: 1 in 115
SOURCE: BA Kosmin, A Keysar, American Religious Identification Survey, Summary Report, Institute for the Study of Secularism in Society and Culture, Trinity College, March 2009.
Spiritual Beliefs
Belief in God
The odds an adult believes:
There is definitely a personal God: 1 in 1.4
There is a higher power but not a personal God: 1 in 8.3
There is no such thing as God: 1 in 43.5
There’s no way to know for sure: 1 in 23.3
Not sure what to think: 1 in 17.5
SOURCE: BA Kosmin, A Keysar, American Religious Identification Survey, Summary Report, Institute for the Study of Secularism in Society and Culture, Trinity College, March 2009.
Racial and Religious Differences
Race ma
kes very little difference in whether people report being sure there’s a God. A large—and comparable—proportion of whites (1 in 1.4), blacks (1 in 1.3), and Hispanics (1 in 1.3) report being “certain there is a God.” Jews and Catholics are more likely to doubt the existence of God than are Protestants and born-again Christians. The odds a born-again Christian is not sure whether there is a God are 1 in 50. The odds for a practicing Jew: 1 in 4.4.
SOURCE: H Taylor, “Three in Five Adults Are Absolutely Certain There Is a God,” Harris Poll #142, December 17, 2009, http://news.harrisinteractive.com.
Is God Male or Female?
The odds an adult believes God is neither male nor female: 1 in 2.9
The odds an adult believes God is both male and female: 1 in 9.1
SOURCE: H Taylor, “Three in Five Adults Are Absolutely Certain There Is a God,” Harris Poll #142, December 17, 2009, http://news.harrisinteractive.com.
Gender Wars
The odds a man believes God is male: 1 in 3.1
The odds a woman believes God is male: 1 in 2.3
SOURCE: H Taylor, “Three in Five Adults Are Absolutely Certain There Is a God,” Harris Poll #142, December 17, 2009, http://news.harrisinteractive.com.
Omniscience and Destiny
The odds a Catholic believes God observes but does not control what happens on Earth: 1 in 1.6
The odds for a Protestant: 1 in 2.5
The odds a Catholic believes God controls what happens on Earth: 1 in 5.3
The odds for a Protestant: 1 in 2.3
SOURCE: H Taylor, “Three in Five Adults Are Absolutely Certain There Is a God,” Harris Poll #142, December 17, 2009, http://news.harrisinteractive.com.
ODDS COUPLE
Who Walks the Talk?
The odds an adult owns a Bible are 1 in 1.1.
These are the same odds an adult has never had revenge sex.
SOURCES: Barna Group, “Americans Draw Theological Beliefs from Diverse Points of View,” October 8, 2002, http://www.barna.org/. Book of Odds estimate based on “The American Sex Survey: A Peek Beneath the Sheets,” ABC News Primetime Live Poll, October 21, 2004, http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/959a1AmericanSex Survey.pdf.
No, we didn’t get this from Pew.
The odds a person’s last name is Church: 1 in 7,791
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Top 1000 Names, 2000.
Religious Ceremonies
The odds an adult has had a religious initiation ceremony: 1 in 1.4
The odds an ever-married adult was married in a religious ceremony: 1 in 1.5
The odds an adult expects to have a religious funeral: 1 in 1.5
SOURCE: BA Kosmin, A Keysar, American Religious Identification Survey, Summary Report, Institute for the Study of Secularism in Society and Culture, Trinity College, March 2009.
1 in 1.8 adults will plan to go to church on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.
SOURCE: Rasmussen Reports, “67% Prefer Merry Christmas While 26% Opt for Happy Holidays,” press release, national survey of 1,000 adults, November 18–19, 2007.
GENDER WARS
Equal Opportunities Believers
The odds an adult who follows a new religious movement is male: 1 in 1.9
The odds an adult who follows a new religious movement is female: 1 in 2.1
SOURCE: BA Kosmin, A Keysar, American Religious Identification Survey, Summary Report, Institute for the Study of Secularism in Society and Culture, Trinity College, March 2009.
They Say Confession Is Good for the Soul
The Odds a Catholic Adult Will Go to Confession:
Never 1 in 2.2
Less than once a year 1 in 3.3
Once a year 1 in 8.3
Several times a year 1 in 8.3
At least once a month 1 in 50
SOURCE: Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate, The Sacrament of Reconciliation, January 10, 2009.
Practicing What’s Preached
The Odds a Catholic Adult Attends Mass:
Rarely or never other than for weddings or funerals: 1 in 3.1
Almost every week: 1 in 9.1
Every week: 1 in 5
More than once a week: 1 in 33.3
SOURCE: Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate, Demographic and Background Characteristics, 2008.
New Century, Old Debate
The odds a person believes in Darwin’s theory of evolution: 1 in 1.9
The odds a person does not believe in Darwin’s theory of evolution: 1 in 4.8
The odds an adult believes only Darwin’s theory of evolution should be taught in schools: 1 in 4.4
The odds an adult believes only creationism should be taught in schools: 1 in 5.9
The odds an adult believes both Darwin’s theory of evolution and creationism should be taught in schools: 1 in 2.5
The odds an adult believes neither Darwin’s theory of evolution nor creationism should be taught in schools: 1 in 9.1
SOURCE: Harris Interactive, “No Consensus, and Much Confusion, on Evolution and the Origin of Species,” BBC America/The Harris Poll, press release, February 18, 2009.
Belief in
Clairvoyance, ESP, Telepathy, Fortune Tellers, Astrologers
The odds an adult believes a person can have extrasensory perception (ESP):
1 in 2.1
The odds an adult believes in mental telepathy:
1 in 3.2
The odds an adult believes in astrology:
1 in 3.9
The odds an adult believes in clairvoyance:
1 in 3.9
The odds an adult agrees that astrologers, palm readers, tarot card readers, fortune tellers, and psychics can foresee the future:
1 in 7.8
SOURCES: Ipsos Public Affairs, “The Associated Press Poll Conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs: Project #81-5681-64, Ghost Study,” press release, October 2007. DW Moore, “Three in Four Americans Believe in Paranormal,” Gallup News Service, press release, June 16, 2005. Baylor Institute for Studies of Religion, American Piety in the 21st Century: Selected Findings from the Baylor Religion Survey, September 2006.
GENDER WARS
“Practical Magic”
The odds a woman has used a Ouija board to contact the dead: 1 in 9.4 vs. 1 in 25 for a man.
SOURCE: Baylor Institute for Studies of Religion, American Piety in the 21st Century: Selected Findings from the Baylor Religion Survey, September 2006.
Where Do You Come Down?
The Odds an Adult Believes:
It’s possible for some people to “channel” a spirit:
1 in 11.1 believe vs. 1 in 1.4 don’t believe.
Some people can communicate with the dead:
1 in 4.8 believe vs. in 1 in 1.8 don’t believe.
In psychic or spiritual healing:
1 in 1.8 believe vs. 1 in 3.9 don’t believe.
A person can be possessed by the devil:
1 in 2.4 believe vs. 1 in 2.3 don’t believe.
SOURCE: Baylor Institute for Studies of Religion, American Piety in the 21st Century: Selected Findings from the Baylor Religion Survey, September 2006.
The World’s Getting Scarier
In 2005, the odds an adult believed in ghosts were 1 in 3.1.
By 2009, the odds had increased to 1 in 2.4.
SOURCES: DW Moore, “Three in Four Americans Believe in Paranormal,” Gallup News Service, press release, June 16, 2005. Harris Interactive, “What People Do and Do Not Believe In,” Harris Poll #140, press release, December 15, 2009, http://www.harrisinteractive .com/vault/Harris_Poll_2009_12_15.pdf.
The Odds an Adult
Does Not Believe in Witches: 1 in 1.7
The odds are the same that...
• An adult who believed in Santa Claus as a child stopped believing between ages 7 and 10.
• A woman believes homosexuality is okay.
• An adult has a mostly favorable opinion of black people.
• A person 65 or older believes public libraries should n
ot remove books advocating doing away with elections and letting the military run the country.
SOURCES: Harris Interactive, “What People Do and Do Not Believe In,” Harris Poll #140, press release, December 15, 2009, http://www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/Harris_Poll_2009_12_15.pdf. Ipsos, AP-AOL News Poll on Angels, December 12-14, 2006, Associated Press, press release, December 23, 2006. “The American Sex Survey: A Peek Beneath the Sheets,” ABC News Primetime Live Poll, October 21, 2004, http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/959a1AmericanSex Survey.pdf. A Kohut, R Suro, S Keeter, C Doherty, G Escobar, America’s Immigration Quandry: No Consensus on Immigration Problem or Proposed Fixes, Washington, DC: Pew Research Center for the People and Press, March 30, 2006. Book of Odds estimates based on JA Davis, TW Smith, PV Marsden, General Social Surveys, 1972-2008 [CUMULATIVE FILE] [Computer file] ICPSR04691 v. 1., Chicago: National Opinion Research Center, 2009 [producer]; Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut/Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributors].
Dream On
The odds an adult agrees that “dreams can sometimes foretell the future or reveal hidden truths” are 1 in 1.9.
The odds an adult reports having had a dream that later came true are 1 in 2.3.
SOURCE: Baylor Institute for Studies of Religion, American Piety in the 21st Century: Selected Findings from the Baylor Religion Survey, 2005.
ODDS COUPLE
“I Am Napoleon Bigfoot”
The odds an adult agrees that “creatures such as Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster will one day be discovered by science” are 1 in 5.6, the same odds that an adult will receive mental health services in a year.
SOURCES: Baylor Institute for Studies of Religion, American Piety in the 21st Century: Selected Findings from the Baylor Religion Survey, September 2006. RC Kessler, P Burglund, O Demler, R Jin, KR Merikangas, EE Walters, “Lifetime Prevalence and Age-of-Onset Distribution of DSM-IV Disorders in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication,” Archives of General Psychiatry 62, June 2005.