Book of Odds
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bicyclist will be injured while riding a bicycle in a year: 1 in 71.2
cheerleader will be injured while cheerleading in a year: 1 in 92.2
softball player will be injured while playing softball in a year: 1 in 97.4
snowboarder will be injured while snowboarding in a year: 1 in 114
ice hockey player will be injured while playing ice hockey in a year: 1 in 163
volleyball player will be injured while playing volleyball in a year: 1 in 178
weightlifter will be injured while lifting weights in a year: 1 in 400
fisherman will be injured while fishing in a year: 1 in 436
tennis player will be injured while playing tennis in a year: 1 in 457
golfer will be injured while playing golf in a year: 1 in 544
water-skier will be injured while water-skiing in a year: 1 in 739
mountain biker will be injured while mountain biking in a year: 1 in 873
bowler will be injured while bowling in a year: 1 in 2,155
billiards player will be injured while playing billiards in a year: 1 in 5,352
SOURCE: National Safety Council, Injury Facts 2011 Edition.
Want to Improve Your Odds of Making It Back Down from Everest’s Summit?
Be a Sherpa.
The odds a climber who attempts to climb Mount Everest and ascends above base camp will not survive the expedition: 1 in 62.5
The odds a mountaineer who attempts to climb Mount Everest and ascends above base camp will not survive the expedition: 1 in 76.9
The odds a Sherpa who attempts to climb Mount Everest and ascends above base camp will not survive the expedition: 1 in 90.9
The odds a climber who reaches the summit of Mount Everest will not survive the descent: 1 in 37
The odds a mountaineer who reaches the summit of Mount Everest will not survive the descent: 1 in 52.6
The odds a Sherpa who reaches the summit of Mount Everest will not survive the descent: 1 in 250
SOURCE: PG Firth, H Zheng, JS Windsor, AJ Sutherland, CH Imray, GWK Moore, et al., “Mortality on Mount Everest, 1921–2006: Descriptive Study,” British Medical Journal 337, 2008: a2654.
Watch Out for
Mother Nature
Struck by Lightning
One lightning bolt can reach over 50,000 degrees Fahrenheit—five to six times hotter than the surface of the sun—and contain 100 million volts of electricity. Every year there are approximately 25 million cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. Only 1 in 1,101,000 people is struck by lightning in a year, and incredibly 1 in 1.1 victims survive.
You are somewhat likelier to be killed by heat prostration (1 in 1,356,000) than to be struck by lightning.
SOURCES: Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, WONDER online database, Compressed Mortality File, 1999–2006 data. StruckbyLightning.org, Resources, Strike Statistics, 2008–2012. US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php.
Odds on Being Hurt in the Wild
SOURCES: National Weather Service, “Summary of Natural Hazard Fatalities in the United States,” individual years from 1995 through 2009; US Census Bureau, “Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico, 1995 Through 2008,” Population Estimates Program. Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, WONDER online database, Compressed Mortality File, 1999–2006 data.
Get Out of the Water!
The odds a person will die from a shark attack in a year: 1 in 251,800,000
Things likelier to happen to a person in a year:
• Die of food poisoning: 1 in 103,864
• Diagnosed with the plague: 1 in 69,695,398
• Die from an escalator accident: 1 in 90,470,000
• Die from contact with hot air: 1 in 99,800,000
• Die from exposure to excessive cold of man-made origin: 1 in 148,200,000
Shark deaths are rare and so are deaths from vending machines, but the latter is the more common event in the United States. Of course we are exposed to vending machines more frequently than sharks, even in the typical aquarium.
SOURCES: Book of Odds estimate based on US Food and Drug Administration, US Department of Health and Human Services, Foodborne Illness Statistics, February 2011, and US Census Bureau Population Division, “Table 1. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000, to July 1, 2009” (NST-EST2009-01), December 2009. Book of Odds estimate based on US Census Bureau Population Division, “Table 1. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000, to July 1, 2009” (NST-EST2009-01), December 2009, and “Table 1. Provisional Cases of Infrequently Reported Notifiable Diseases, United States” in “Notifiable Diseases and Mortality Tables,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(09), March 9, 2012. Center for Construction Research and Training, Deaths and Injuries Involving Elevators and Escalators: A Report to the Center to Protect Workers’ Rights, 2006 [1992–2003 data]. Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, WONDER online database, Compressed Mortality File, 1999–2006 data. Z Turpin, “Behind the Numbers: The Sharks and the Vending Machines,” http://www.bookofodds.com/Accidents-Death/Accidental-Deaths/Articles/A0273BO-Behind-the-Numbers-The-Sharks-and-the-Vending-Machines.
Quiz: Match the Injury Odds to the Cause
Choosing from the letters listed below, match the item involved in accidental injury with its odds.
Odds (1 in) Highest to Lowest
a: 433
b: 524
c: 865
d: 874
e: 1,019
f: 2,006
g: 2,030
h: 2,348
i: 2,660
j: 2,966
k: 3,174
l: 3,357
m: 3,456
n: 4,235
o: 5,361
p: 6,219
q: 7,042
r: 7,054
s: 7,591
t: 9,247
u: 10,002
v: 13,532
w: 13,714
x: 15.970
y: 16,554
z: 23,216
aa: 24,115
ab: 26,645
ac: 29,470
ad: 33,614
ae: 35,842
af: 68,774
ag: 79,688
ah: 110,838
ai: 123,542
aj: 175,667
Answers:
SOURCE: US Consumer Product Safety Commission, National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS) Data Highlights—2010, http://www.cpsc.gov/LIBRARY/neiss.html.
But if It’s the Fourth of July,
You Might Want to Put Off That Hospital Visit
Do you need another reason to put down that firecracker?
It turns out what has long been regarded as an urban myth is actually true. July is the most dangerous time to land in one of America’s celebrated teaching hospitals. And things are probably at their worst over the Fourth of July weekend.
Every July 1, thousands of interns, straight out of medical school, report for duty at the nation’s teaching hospitals—while at the same time many more experienced hands are headed out the door. Experienced interns who have finished their year are off to residency programs, and when the long holiday weekend rolls around, attending physicians and senior residents are often off to the beach or the golf course.
For years there have been rumors—disputed by several studies—that July was the worst month to get a hospital bracelet slapped on your wrist. A 2003 study of patients in intensive care units found no unusual spike in mortality. A 2009 study by researchers at the University of Tennessee Health Science Center in Memphis analyzing the surgical outcomes for 12,525 patients found no significant difference in recovery times or death rates for people who underwent procedures in July. However, it
now appears that those results may have been skewed by the fact that both surgery and intensive care units are among the most supervised environments in a hospital.
No one hands a newly minted intern a scalpel and walks away. But there are other hospital settings where interns have a greater degree of autonomy, especially on a busy holiday weekend. A large and comprehensive new study published in the Journal of General Internal Medicine—examining all computerized death certificates (over 62 million) from 1979 to 2006—tested what researchers called the “New Resident Hypothesis” and found fatal medication errors rose 10% in teaching hospitals in July. There was no spike in counties with no teaching hospitals, and no similar uptick in any other month. The lethal mistakes included dispensing the wrong drug, overdoses, and accidents involving drugs or biological agents.
A separate study by Harvard Business School health care economists estimated that between 1,500 and 2,750 people each year die earlier than they normally would due to the “July phenomenon.”
So keep a safe distance from the sparklers and Roman candles: in a year, the odds are 1 in 34,810 a person will end up in the ER thanks to fireworks.
SOURCES: DP Phillips, GEC Barker, “A July Spike in Fatal Medication Errors: A Possible Effect of New Medical Residents,” Journal of General Internal Medicine 25(8), August 2010: 774–779. R Huckman, J Barro, “Cohort Turnover and Productivity” (NBER Working Paper No. 11182), National Bureau of Economic Research.
In Fact, Be Careful Around All Holidays
The odds a person will visit an emergency room due to an accident involving Christmas tree lights in a year:
1 in 80,855
SOURCE: US Consumer Product Safety Commission, National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS) Data Highlights—2010, http://www.cpsc.gov/LIBRARY/neiss.html.
Everyday Hazards
Duct Tape Can Hurt You
Believe it or not, the odds a person will visit an emergency room due to an accident involving masking, duct, or other adhesive tape in a year are 1 in 167,488. You’re about as likely to visit the emergency room for a tape-related injury as for one caused by a leaf blower (1 in 161,204).
SOURCE: US Consumer Product Safety Commission, National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS) Data Highlights—2010, http://www.cpsc.gov/LIBRARY/neiss.html.
STAYING ALIVE
Numbers Tell the Story
Thanks, Dr. Heimlich!
The odds a person will die from choking on food in a year: 1 in 320,874
The odds a person will die from choking on a nonfood object in a year: 1 in 97,644
The odds an adult has ever needed help because he or she was choking: 1 in 11.1
The odds an adult has ever seen someone choke: 1 in 3.6
The odds an adult is confident he or she would know how to help someone who is choking: 1 in 1.3
The odds a choking adult requiring emergency assistance was helped by:
• Family member: 1 in 1.8
• Friend: 1 in 10
• Stranger: 1 in 12.5
SOURCES: Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, WONDER online database, Compressed Mortality File, 1999–2006 data. American Red Cross, Summer Safety, March 2010 Polling.
The odds an adult has ever been in a situation where someone nearby collapsed and may have needed CPR: 1 in 3.7
Who’s willing and able to help? The odds an adult:
has taken a class to learn CPR: 1 in 1.5
has first-aid certification: 1 in 2.7
has both first-aid and CPR or AED certification: 1 in 3
The odds an adult is likely to administer CPR when needed by:
A family member: 1 in 1.2
A friend: 1 in 1.4
A coworker: 1 in 1.6
A boss: 1 in 1.7
A stranger: 1 in 2.2
A pet: 1 in 3.6
The odds an adult is prepared to rush someone in his or her family to the hospital during an unexpected event are 1 in 1.1. Not prepared? 1 in 16.7.
SOURCES: American Red Cross, Summer Safety, March 2010 Polling. American Red Cross, Water Safety Poll, March 31, 2009. Harris Interactive, “Majorities Say They Are Prepared for Certain Unexpected Events, but Less Than Half Have Actually Done Certain Preparedness Actions,” Harris Poll #54, press release, June 12, 2007.
When We
Don’t Make It
The odds a person who died will be buried in a casket: 1 in 1.4
The odds a person who died will be cremated: 1 in 2.9
The odds a person’s cremated remains will be scattered: 1 in 5.8
The odds a person’s cremated remains will be scattered on land: 1 in 14.5
The odds a person’s cremated remains will be scattered on water: 1 in 9.7
The odds a person’s cremated remains will be returned to the family: 1 in 1.3
The odds a person’s cremated remains will not be picked up: 1 in 58.8
The odds a person’s cremated remains will be kept at home: 1 in 3.3
The odds a person’s cremated remains will be buried in a cemetery: 1 in 3.4
The odds a person who died will be cryogenically frozen at Alcor: 1 in 606,500
SOURCES: Casket and Funeral Supply Association of America, http://www.cfsaa.org/about.php. Cremation Association of North America, Cremation Statistics, http://www.cremationassociation.org/Media/CremationStatistics/tabid/95/Default.aspx. M Kim, “How Cremation Works,” howstuffworks.com, http://science.howstuffworks.com/cremation.htm. Alcor Life Extension Foundation, “Complete List of Alcor Crytopreservations,” http://www.alcor.org/cases.html.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Without the intelligence, vision, and labor of many people, this book would not have been possible.
First of all, it rests on the foundation of the Book of Odds project. Funded by farsighted and courageous investors, we spent three years and about fifty person-years of effort creating a database of more than 400,000 odds. These went onto a remarkable website, launched with a preannouncement by Stephen J. Dubner and the New York Times Freakonomics blog. We are grateful to him and to the Boston Museum of Science for hosting our launch event. But most of all we are grateful to the extraordinary team that made the project possible and created a groundbreaking website.
This book was a special labor of love. The editorial team, headed by Rosalind Wright, were the ones who figured out what people would like to know while researchers figured out how to get to real numbers. The efforts of Alison Caverly, Jon Sobel, and Zack Turpin were instrumental and invaluable.
On the research side, Jon Yale-Loehr and Carolina Morgan led the efforts for this book. Ian Stanczyk contributed invaluable advice, along with unique and fascinating new ways to consider probabilities. Eric Lawless, Benny Kriss, David Gassko, Greg Costa, Greg Goodwin, Nick Williams, and Andrea Chroniewicz all provided tremendous help. A nod of appreciation also goes to two great interns, Anthony Lydgate and Alyssa Demirjian. We would not be in a position to publish without the labor of Dan Riviello, who was head of permissions.
Carolina Morgan and Luca Shapiro, two very talented designers, were the first to bring new life to odds through innovative and creative visual representations, allowing us to fashion the book proposal. The design was superbly realized by Walter Zekanoski, whom we recommend to anyone in need of creativity and reliability. Jon Yale-Loehr worked tirelessly to create and proof our odds, building on the work of Cynthia Ramirez and others before him. Justin Refi and Matt Crawford worked on the semantic organization of the database. Donna Lanney and Beau Tremblay were essential to the working of the website and made substantial contributions to this book. And none of us could have functioned without the wise hand of George Campbell.
Steve Ross added zombie infestation modeling to his many talents and profound belief in the value of our efforts. Our thanks go to our agents, Andrew Wylie, Kristina Moore, and Rebecca Nagel, and to our persistent editor at HarperCollins, Julia Abramoff, and design director Leah Carlson-Stanisic.
And finally we would like to give our heartfelt thanks to all the organizations and individuals who have generously allowed us to work with their data.
—Amram Shapiro, founder and CEO; Louise Firth Campbell, COO; Rosalind Wright, editor in chief
ABOUT BOOK OF ODDS
Book of Odds was founded in 2006 with the mission to create the missing dictionary of probabilities. Over four years we developed the first database of its kind as a proof of concept. We developed 500,000 odds, largely from North American data sources for a start, and put them into a rigorous format that made each one comparable to every other.
Book of Odds provides consulting and creative services to corporations, institutions, and nonprofits. For corporations and institutions we help make sense of data and provide decision support, ranging from discrete to major positioning decisions. We also collect data within the operations or the marketplace. Creative work focuses on the use of odds in public relations and marketing campaigns.
We offer similar services to nonprofits, which often must try to make the urgency and scale of their issue understood. Because we collect “the odds of everyday life,” nonprofits are likely to be able to find something their target market can relate to personally. Some have operational needs such as surveys of volunteers. We modify our rates for nonprofits.
To reach us with inquiries:
Amram Shapiro, founder and CEO
ashapiro@bookofodds.com
Louise Firth Campbell, COO
lfirthcampbell@bookofodds.com
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
ROSALIND WRIGHT is the founding editor of Book of Odds. She has published two novels: Rocking, which received an award from PEN International, and Veracruz, which received the top fiction prize from the Texas Institute of Letters.
AMRAM SHAPIRO is the founder and president of the Book of Odds. He is coauthor of Product Development, Success Through Product and Cycle-Time Excellence and has contributed to numerous journals including Research Technology Management and CFO magazine.