AI Superpowers
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Google’s own R&D budget: Gregory Allen and Elsa B. Kania, “China Is Using America’s Own Plan to Dominate the Future of Artificial Intelligence,” Foreign Policy, September 8, 2017, http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/09/08/china-is-using-americas-own-plan-to-dominate-the-future-of-artificial-intelligence/.
“historic achievement”: Allison Linn, “Historic Achievement: Microsoft Researchers Reach Human Parity in Conversational Speech Recognition,” The AI Blog, Microsoft, October 18, 2016, https://blogs.microsoft.com/ai/historic-achievement-microsoft-researchers-reach-human-parity-conversational-speech-recognition/.
Ng left Baidu: Andrew Ng, “Opening a New Chapter of My Work in AI,” Medium, March 21, 2017, https://medium.com/@andrewng/opening-a-new-chapter-of-my-work-in-ai-c6a4d1595d7b.
proposed cutting funding: Paul Mozur and John Markoff, “Is China Outsmarting America in A.I.?” New York Times, May 27, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/27/technology/china-us-ai-artificial-intelligence.html?_r=0.
“venture socialism”: “Capitalizing on ‘Venture Socialism,’” Washington Post, September 18, 2011, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/capitalizing-on-venture-socialism/2011/09/16/gIQAQ7sYdK_story.html?utm_term=.5f0e532fcb86.
260,000 annual road fatalities: “Scale of Traffic Deaths and Injuries Constitutes ‘a Public Health Crisis’—Safe Roads Contribute to Sustainable Development,” World Health Organization, Western Pacific Region, press release, May 24, 2016, http://www.wpro.who.int/china/mediacentre/releases/2016/20160524/en/.
5. THE FOUR WAVES OF AI
coined the famous phrase: Frederick Jelinek, “Some of My Best Friends Are Linguists,” presentation at the International Conference on Language Resources and Evaluation, May 28, 2004, http://www.lrec-conf.org/lrec2004/doc/jelinek.pdf.
seventy-four minutes per day: “Toutiao, a Chinese News App That’s Making Headlines,” Economist, November 18, 2017, https://www.economist.com/news/business/21731416-remarkable-success-smartphone-app-claims-figure-users-out-within-24.
“new standard of beauty”: Conversation with author, October 2017.
rank all prosecutors: 朱晓颖, “江苏”案管机器人”很忙：辅助办案 还考核检察官,” 中国新闻网, March 2, 2018, http://www.chinanews.com/sh/2018/03-02/8457963.shtml.
85 million by the end of 2017: Sarah Dai, “China’s Baidu, Xiaomi in AI Pact to Create Smart Connected Devices,” South China Morning Post, November 28, 2017, http://www.scmp.com/tech/china-tech/article/2121928/chinas-baidu-xiaomi-ai-pact-create-smart-connected-devices.
toward an IPO predicted: Shona Gosh, “Xiaomi Is Picking up Underwriters for an IPO Worth up to $100 Billion,” Business Insider, January 15, 2018, http://www.businessinsider.com/xiaomi-goldman-sachs-ipo-100-billion-2018-1.
“the best company”: April Glaser, “DJI Is Running away with the Drone Market,” Recode, April 14, 2017, https://www.recode.net/2017/4/14/14690576/drone-market-share-growth-charts-dji-forecast.
1.5 million miles: Fred Lambert, “Google’s Self-Driving Car vs Tesla Autopilot: 1.5M Miles in 6 Years vs 47M Miles in 6 Months,” Electrek, April 11, 2016, https://electrek.co/2016/04/11/google-self-driving-car-tesla-autopilot/.
$583 billion: “Xiong’an New Area: China’s Latest Special Economic Zone?” CKGSB Knowledge, November 8, 2017, http://knowledge.ckgsb.edu.cn/2017/11/08/all-articles/xiongan-china-special-economic-zone/.
6. UTOPIA, DYSTOPIA, AND THE REAL AI CRISIS
Kurzweil predicts: Dom Galeon and Christianna Reedy, “Kurzweil Claims That the Singularity Will Happen by 2045,” Futurism, October 5, 2017, https://futurism.com/kurzweil-claims-that-the-singularity-will-happen-by-2045/.
“the biggest risk we face”: James Titcomb, “AI Is the Biggest Risk We Face as a Civilisation, Elon Musk Says,” London Telegraph, July 17, 2017, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/07/17/ai-biggest-risk-face-civilisation-elon-musk-says/.
“summoning the demon”: Greg Kumparak, “Elon Musk Compares Building Artificial Intelligence to ‘Summoning the Demon,’” TechCrunch, October 26, 2014, https://techcrunch.com/2014/10/26/elon-musk-compares-building-artificial-intelligence-to-summoning-the-demon/.
median prediction of 2040: Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014), 19.
Hinton and his colleague’s landmark paper: Geoffrey Hinton, Simon Osindero, and Yee-Whye The, “A Fast Learning Algorithm for Deep Belief Nets,” Neural Computation 18 (2006): 1527–1554.
Folding Beijing: Hao Jingfang, Folding Beijing, trans. Ken Liu, Uncanny Magazine, https://uncannymagazine.com/article/folding-beijing-2/.
suffer stagnant wages: Robert Allen, “Engel’s Pause: A Pessimist’s Guide to the British Industrial Revolution,” University of Oxford Department of Economics Working Papers, April 2007, https://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/department-of-economics-discussion-paper-series/engel-s-pause-a-pessimist-s-guide-to-the-british-industrial-revolution.
technologies that “really matter”: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: Norton, 2014), 75–77.
“the great decoupling”: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, “Jobs, Productivity and the Great Decoupling,” New York Times, December 11, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/12/opinion/global/jobs-productivity-and-the-great-decoupling.html.
doubled its share: Eduardo Porter and Karl Russell, “It’s an Unequal World. It Doesn’t Have to Be,” New York Times, December 14, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/14/business/world-inequality.html.
twice as much wealth: Matt Egan, “Record Inequality: The Top 1% Controls 38.6% of America’s Wealth,” CNN, September 17, 2017, http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/27/news/economy/inequality-record-top-1-percent-wealth/index.html.
fallen for the poorest Americans: Lawrence Mishel, Elise Gould, and Josh Bivens, “Wage Stagnation in Nine Charts,” Economic Policy Institute, January 6, 2015, http://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/.
“The answer is surely not”: Claire Cain Miller, “As Robots Grow Smarter, American Workers Struggle to Keep Up,” The Upshot (blog), New York Times, December 15, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/16/upshot/as-robots-grow-smarter-american-workers-struggle-to-keep-up.html.
“the biggest challenge”: Ibid.
$148 billion invested: Dana Olsen, “A Record-Setting Year: 2017 VC Activity in 3 Charts,” Pitchbook, December 15, 2017, https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/a-record-setting-year-2017-vc-activity-in-3-charts.
leapt to $15.2 billion: “Top AI Trends to Watch in 2018,” CB Insights, February 2018, https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/artificial-intelligence-trends-2018/.
a dire prediction: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Automation,” Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment, September 17, 2013, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf.
just 9 percent of jobs: Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory, and Ulrich Zierahn, “The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis,” OECD Social, Employment, and Migration Working Papers, no. 189, May 14, 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en.
38 percent of jobs: Richard Berriman and John Hawksworth, “Will Robots Steal Our Jobs? The Potential Impact of Automation on the UK and Other Major Economies,” PwC, March 2017, https://www.pwc.co.uk/economic-services/ukeo/pwcukeo-section-4-automation-march-2017-v2.pdf.
already automatable: James Manyika et al., “What the Future of Work Will Mean for Jobs, Skills, and Wages,” McKinsey Global Institute, November 2017, https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/future-of-organizations-and-work/what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages.
20 to 25 percent fewer employees: Karen Harris, Austin Kimson, and Andrew Schwedel, “Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation and Inequality,” Bain and Company, February 7, 2018, http://www.bain.com/publications/articles
/labor-2030-the-collision-of-demographics-automation-and-inequality.aspx.
make China “ground zero”: Martin Ford, “China’s Troubling Robot Revolution,” New York Times, June 10, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/11/opinion/chinas-troubling-robot-revolution.html.
“American robots work as hard”: Vivek Wadhwa, “Sorry China, the Future of Next-Generation Manufacturing Is in the US,” Quartz, August 30, 2016, https://qz.com/769897/sorry-china-the-future-of-next-generation-manufacturing-is-in-the-us/.
capture a full 70 percent: Rao and Verweij, “Sizing the Prize.”
“useless class”:Yuval N. Harari, “The Rise of the Useless Class,” TED Ideas, February 24, 2017, https://ideas.ted.com/the-rise-of-the-useless-class/.
“I lost my sense of worth”: Binyamin Appelbaum, “The Vanishing Male Worker: How America Fell Behind,” New York Times, December 11, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/12/upshot/unemployment-the-vanishing-male-worker-how-america-fell-behind.html.
Rates of depression triple: Rebecca J. Rosen, “The Mental-Health Consequences of Unemployment,” Atlantic, June 9, 2014, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/06/the-mental-health-consequences-of-unemployment/372449/.
“deaths of despair”: Anne Case and Angus Deaton, “Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2017, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/casetextsp17bpea.pdf.
7. THE WISDOM OF CANCER
Be Your Personal Best: 李开复,做最好的自己 (北京: 人民出版社, 2005), https://www.amazon.cn/dp/B00116LO0W.
Making a World of Difference: Dr. Kai-Fu Lee, Haitao Fan, and Crystal Tai (translator), Making a World of Difference, Amazon Digital Services, April 13, 2018.
“It all comes down to love”: Bronnie Ware, “Top 5 Regrets of the Dying,” Huffington Post, January, 21, 2012, https://www.huffingtonpost.com/bronnie-ware/top-5-regrets-of-the-dyin_b_1220965.html.
five stages of grief: Elisabeth Kübler-Ross, On Death and Dying (New York: Macmillan, 1969).
analyzed fifteen different variables: Massimo Federico et al., “Follicular Lymphoma International Prognostic Index 2: A New Prognostic Index for Follicular Lymphoma Developed by the International Follicular Lymphoma Prognostic Factor Project,” Journal of Clinical Oncology 27, no. 27 (September 2009): 4555–4562.
8. A BLUEPRINT FOR HUMAN COEXISTENCE WITH AI
move to a four-day work week: Seth Fiegerman, “Google Founders Talk About Ending the 40-Hour Work Week,” Mashable, July 7, 2014, https://mashable.com/2014/07/07/google-founders-interview-khosla/#tXe9XU.mr5qU.
creative approaches to work-sharing: Steven Greenhouse, “Work-Sharing May Help Companies Avoid Layoffs,” New York Times, June 15, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/business/economy/16workshare.html.
Y Combinator president Sam Altman: Kathleen Pender, “Oakland Group Plans to Launch Nation’s Biggest Basic-Income Research Project,” San Francisco Chronicle, September 21, 2017, https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/networth/article/Oakland-group-plans-to-launch-nation-s-biggest-12219073.php.
Facebook cofounder Chris Hughes: The Economic Security Project, https://economicsecurityproject.org/.
gives a thousand families a stipend: Pender, “Oakland Group.”
“VC for the People”: Steve Randy Waldman, “VC for the People,” Interfluidity (blog), April 16, 2014, http://www.interfluidity.com/v2/5066.html.
“everyone has a cushion”: Chris Weller, “Mark Zuckerberg Calls for Exploring Basic Income in Harvard Commencement Speech,” Business Insider, May 25, 2017, http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-basic-income-harvard-speech-2017-5.
two fastest growing professions: Ben Casselman, “A Peek at Future Jobs Reveals Growing Economic Divides,” New York Times, October 24, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/24/business/economy/future-jobs.html.
just over $20,000: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics, “Home Health Aides and Personal Care Aides,” https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/home-health-aides-and-personal-care-aides.htm, and “Personal Care Aides,” https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes399021.htm.
“A Sense of Purpose”: Larry Fink, “Larry Fink’s Annual Letter to CEOs: A Sense of Purpose,” BlackRock, January 18, 2018, https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/en-us/investor-relations/larry-fink-ceo-letter.
9. OUR GLOBAL AI STORY
“You can’t connect the dots”: Steve Jobs, “2005 Stanford Commencement Address,” Stanford University, published March 7, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF8uR6Z6KLc&t=785s.
space race of the 1960s: John R. Allen and Amir Husain, “The Next Space Race Is Artificial Intelligence: And the United States Is Losing,” Foreign Policy, November 3, 2017, http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/11/03/the-next-space-race-is-artificial-intelligence-and-america-is-losing-to-china/.
Cold War arms race: Zachary Cohen, “US Risks Losing Artificial Intelligence Arms Race to China and Russia,” CNN, November 29, 2017, https://www.cnn.com/2017/11/29/politics/us-military-artificial-intelligence-russia-china/index.html.
Index
A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z
A
Africa, 138, 139, 169
age of data, 14, 18, 56
age of implementation
Chinese entrepreneurs and, 16, 18, 25
Chinese government and, 18
data and, 17, 20, 55, 80
deep learning and, 13–14, 143
going light vs. going heavy, 71
AGI (artificial general intelligence), 140–44
AI. See artificial intelligence (AI)
AI engineers, 14
Airbnb, 39, 49, 73
AI revolution
deep learning and, 5, 25, 92, 94, 143
economic impact of, 151–52
speed of, 152–55
AI winters, 6–7, 8, 9, 10
algorithmic bias, 229
algorithms, AI
AI revolution and, 152–53
computing power and, 14, 56
credit and, 112–13
data and, 14, 17, 56, 138
fake news detection by, 109
intelligence sharing and, 87
legal applications for, 115–16
medical diagnosis and, 114–15
as recommendation engines, 107–8
robot reporting, 108
white-collar workers and, 167, 168
Alibaba
Amazon compared to, 109
Chinese startups and, 58
City Brain, 93–94, 117, 124, 228
as dominant AI player, 83, 91, 93–94
eBay and, 34–35
financial services spun off from, 73
four waves of AI and, 106, 107, 109
global markets and, 137
grid approach and, 95
Microsoft Research Asia and, 89
mobile payments transition, 76
New York Stock Exchange debut, 66–67
online purchasing and, 68
success of, 40
Tencent’s “Pearl Harbor attack” on, 60–61
Wang Xing and, 24
Alipay, 35, 60, 69, 73–74, 75, 112, 118
Alphabet, 92–93
AlphaGo, 1–4, 5, 6, 11, 199
AlphaGo Zero, 90
Altman, Sam, 207
Amazon
Alibaba compared to, 109
Chinese market and, 39
data captured by, 77
as dominant AI player, 83, 91
four waves of AI and, 106
grid approach and, 95
innovation mentality at, 33
monopoly of e-commerce, 170
online purchasing and, 68
Wang Xing and, 24
warehouses, 129–30
Amazon Echo, 117, 127
Amazon Go, 163, 213
Anderson, Chris, 130
Andreesen Horowitz, 70
&nb
sp; Ant Financial, 73
antitrust laws, 20, 28, 171, 229
Apollo project, 135
app constellation model, 70
Apple, 33, 75, 117, 126, 143, 177, 184
Apple Pay, 75, 76
app-within-an-app model, 59
ARM (British firm), 96
Armstrong, Neil, 3
artificial general intelligence (AGI), 140–44
artificial intelligence (AI)
introduction to, ix–xi
See also China; deep learning; economy and AI; four waves of AI; global AI story; human coexistence with AI; new world order
artificial superintelligence. See superintelligence
Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, 88–89
Austria, 159
automation
in factories and farms, 20, 165–66, 167–68
Fink’s letter and, 215, 216
intelligent vs. physical, 166, 167
jobs at risk of displacement by, 157–60, 162, 164, 165–67, 204
autonomous AI, 105–6, 128–36
Avenue of the Entrepreneurs (Chuangye Dajie), 53, 54, 61–62, 64, 68
B
Baidu
AI City and, 134