The End of Doom

by Ronald Bailey

  “Prices for most rare”: US Department of Defense, Annual Industrial Capabilities Report to Congress, October 2013, 25. www.acq.osd.mil/mibp/docs/annual_ind_cap_rpt_to_congress-2013.pdf.

  Tesla Motors installs: European Commission, Futurium, “Emerging Alternatives to Rare Earth Elements,” 2013. ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/emerging-alternatives-rare-earth-elements.

  “The influence of innovation”: Harry Bloch and David Sapsford, “Innovation, Real Primary Commodity Prices, and the Business Cycles,” paper presented at the International Schumpeter Society Conference 2010 on Innovation, Organisation, Sustainability and Crises, Aalborg, June 2010, 10.

  presence of an EKC-type relationship: Bishwa Koirala et al., “Further Investigation of Environmental Kuznets Curve Studies Using Meta-Analysis.” International Journal of Ecological Economics and Statistics 22.S11 (2011). www.ceserp.com/cp-jour/index.php?journal=ijees&page=article&op=view&path[]=1014.

  globally, pollution: edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/news_docs/July%2019_v2.pdf, Version v4.1of the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), July 2010.

  sulfur dioxide emissions: K. Zilmont, S. J. Smith, and J. Cofala, “The Last Decade of Global Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide 2000–2011.” Environmental Research Letters 8.1 (January 2013). iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/014003/article.

  pollution turning point: Anil Markandya et al., “Empirical Analysis of National Income and SO2 Emissions in Selected European Countries.” Environmental and Resource Economics 35 (2006): 221–257. www.environmental-expert.com/Files/6063/articles/9212/1.pdf.

  “If consumers dematerialize”: Jesse H. Ausubel and Paul Waggoner, “Dematerialization: Variety, Caution, and Persistence,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105.35 (September 2, 2008): 12774–12779. www.pnas.org/content/105/35/12774.full.

  modern technology enables: Vaclav Smil, Making the Modern World: Materials and Dematerialization. New York: Wiley, 2013.

  the amount of energy: Ramez Naam, The Infinite Resource: The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet. Lebanon, NH: University Press of New England, 2013.

  significant gains in energy productivity: Alliance Commission on National Energy Efficiency Policy, “History of Energy Efficiency.” Alliance to Save Energy, January 2013, 4. www.ase.org/sites/ase.org/files/resources/Media%20browser/ee_commission_history_report_2-1-13.pdf.

  a realistic simulation: Daniel J. Fagnant and Kara M. Kockelman, “The Travel and Environmental Implications of Shared Autonomous Vehicles, Using Agent-Based Model Scenarios.” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 40 (March 2014): 1–13. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X13002581.

  shared autonomous vehicles: Lawrence Burns, William Jordan, and Bonnie Scarborough, “Transforming Personal Mobility.” The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, 2013.

  resource consumption trends: Iddo Wernick and Jesse Ausubel, “Making Nature Useless? Global Resource Trends, Innovation, and Implications for Conservation.” Resources for the Future, November 5, 2014. www.rff.org/Events/Pages/Making-Nature-Useless-Global-Resource-Trends-Innovation-and-Implications-for-Conservation.aspx.

  peak farmland: J. H. Ausubel, I. K. Wernick, and P. E. Waggoner, “Peak Farmland and the Prospect for Land Sparing.” Population and Development Review 38 (2013): 221–242. phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/PDR.SUPP%20Final%20Paper.pdf.

  release of vast areas of land: Jesse H. Ausubel, “Peak Farmland,” lecture on December 18, 2012. Symposium in Honor of the 80th Birthday of Paul Demeny and his retirement as editor of Population and Development Review. phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/Peak%20Farmland%2018%20Dec%20lecture%20Ausubel%281%29.pdf.

  crop plants bioengineered: Kenrick Vezina, “Nitrogen-Efficient Crops: The Holy Grail of Agricultural Biotech?” Genetic Literacy Project, March 18, 2013. www.geneticliteracyproject.org/2013/03/18/nitrogen-efficient-crops-the-holy-grail-of-agricultural-biotech/#.UwYouIUxbLc.

  cultured meat: Avy Roy, “Why Meat Grown in Labs Is the Next Logical Step for Food Production.” Next Nature, June 28, 2013. www.nextnature.net/2013/08/meat-grown-in-labs-is-the-next-logical-step-for-food-production/.

  “building a progressive food system”: New Harvest, www.new-harvest.org/.

  “is likely to play a significant role”: Banning Garrett, “3D Printing: New Economic Paradigms and Strategic Shifts.” Global Policy 4.1 (February 2014): 70–75. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1758-5899.12119/full.

  “Additive manufacturing”: Advanced Manufacturing Office, “Additive Manufacturing: Pursuing the Promise.” US Department of Energy, August 2012.

  “Sustainable development”: Gro Harlem Brundtland, Our Common Future: Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987. www.un-documents.net/our-common-future.pdf.

  economic growth proceeded: Angus Maddison, The Maddison Project, Original Maddison Home Page, January 2013. www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm.

  ultimately unsustainable societies: Douglass C. North, John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast, Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009.

  concur with the analysis: Daron Acemoğlu and James Robinson, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. New York: Crown Business, 2012.

  “Many lines of evidence”: Harvey Weiss and Raymond S. Bradley, “What Drives Societal Collapse?” The Heat Is Online, January 26, 2001. www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?id=3629&method=full.

  problem-solving institutions: Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1988.

  self-organizing critical systems: Gregory G. Brunk, “Why Do Societies Collapse?: A Theory Based on Self-Organized Criticality.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 14.2 (April 2002): 195–230. jtp.sagepub.com/content/14/2/195.abstract.

  the start of World War I: Thomas Kron and Thomas Grund, “Society as a Self-Organized Critical System,” Cybernetics and Human Knowing 16.1–2 (January 1, 2009): 65–82. www.soziologie.rwth-aachen.de/global/show_document.asp?id=aaaaaaaaaackhty.

  critical point: Mancur Olson, The Rise and Decline of Nations: Economic Growth, Stagflation, and Social Rigidities. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1982.

  capitalist development: Ronald Bailey, “China Needs the Rule of Law.” Reason, May 16, 2012. reason.com/archives/2012/05/16/china-needs-the-rule-of-law.

  “the current economic model”: Sustainable Societies, Responsive Citizens. Declaration adopted at the sixty-fourth annual Conference of the Department of Public Information for Non-Governmental Organizations, Bonn, Germany, September 3–5, 2011. www.un.org/wcm/webdav/site/dpingorelations/shared/Final%20Declaration/BonnEng.pdf.

  “Is it realistic”: Lucas Bretschger and Sjak Smulders, “Sustainability and Substitution of Exhaustible Natural Resources: How Resource Prices Affect Long-Term R&D-Investments,” in Environment and Sustainable Development, I. Sundar, ed. New Delhi: APH Publishing Company, 2006. www.cer.ethz.ch/wif/wif/resec/research/research_seminar/substitution.hp.pdf.

  “Every generation has perceived”: Paul Romer, “Economic Growth,” The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, 2nd ed. www.econlib.org/library/Enc/EconomicGrowth.html.

  3. Never Do Anything for the First Time

  “more sorry than safe”: Jonathan H. Adler, “More Sorry Than Safe: Assessing the Precautionary Priniciple and the Proposed International Biosafety Protocol.” Texas International Law Journal, Spring 2000, 173–205. scholarlycommons.law.case.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1225&context=faculty_publications.

  “When an activity”: Science and Environmental Health Network, Wingspread Consensus Statement on the Precautionary Principle, January 26, 1998. www.sehn.org/wing.html.

  “is not an anti-science view”: Chris Mooney, “Unequivocal: Today’s Right Is Overwhelmingly More Anti-Science Than Today’s Left.” DeSmogBlog, September 9, 2011. www.desmogblog.com/unequivocal-today-s-right-overwheming
ly-more-anti-science-today-s-left.

  “Assume that all”: Peter Montague, “The Precautionary Principle in the Real World,” Environmental Research Foundation, January 21, 2008. www.rachel.org/lib/pp_def.htm.

  “The truth of the matter”: George Annas, cited in Ronald Bailey, “Precautionary Tale.” Reason, April 1999. reason.com/archives/1999/04/01/precautionary-tale/1.

  “If the burden of proof”: Cass Sunstein, “The Paralyzing Principle.” Regulation, Winter 2002–2003, 32–37. object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/regulation/2002/12/v25n4-9.pdf.

  “The problem is”: Adam Thierer, “Technopanics, Threat Inflation, and the Danger of an Information Technology Precautionary Principle.” Minnesota Journal of Law, Science and Technology, January 25, 2013.

  Minotaurs are notoriously: Rahim Sameer, “The Opera Novice: The Minotaur by Harrison Birtwistle and David Harsent.” The Telegraph, January 22, 2013. www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/music/opera/9818147/The-opera-novice-The-Minotaur-by-Harrison-Birtwistle-and-David-Harsent.html.

  overall green plan: Steve Breyman, cited in Ronald Bailey, “Precautionary Tale.” Reason, April 1999. reason.com/archives/1999/04/01/precautionary-tale/1.

  “the greatest uncertainty”: Søren Holm and John Harris, “Precautionary Principle Stifles Discovery.” Nature 400: 398 (July 29, 1999), cited in Gary Marchant et al., Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST), Impact of the Precautionary Principle on Feeding Current and Future Generations. Issue Paper 52. CAST, Ames, Iowa, 2013.

  “The precautionary principle”: Cass R. Sunstein, “Throwing Precaution to the Wind: Why the ‘Safe’ Choice Can Be Dangerous.” Boston Globe, July 13, 2008.

  five different common cognitive biases: Cass R. Sunstein, “The Laws of Fear.” University of Chicago Law and Economics, Olin Working Paper No. 128 (June 2001). Available at SSRN: ssrn.com/abstract=274190 or dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.274190.

  German government decided: Michael Bastasch, “CO2 Emissions Have Increased Since 2011 Despite Germany’s $140 Billion Green Energy Plan.” The Daily Caller, April 9, 2014. dailycaller.com/2014/04/09/germanys-140-billion-green-energy-plan-increased-co2-emissions/#ixzz2yaOKrXJF.

  “paralyzing principle”: Sunstein, “The Paralyzing Principle.”

  modern pesticides: Gary Marchant et al., Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST), Impact of the Precautionary Principle on Feeding Current and Future Generations. Issue Paper 52. CAST, Ames, Iowa, 2013.

  time from drug discovery to marketing: David J. Stewart, Simon N. Whitney, and Razelle Kurzrock, “Equipoise Lost: Ethics, Costs, and the Regulation of Cancer Clinical Research.” Journal of Clinical Oncology 28.17 (June 10, 2010): 2925–2935. jco.ascopubs.org/content/28/17/2925.abstract.

  faster FDA drug approvals: Tomas Philipson et al., “Assessing the Safety and the Efficacy of the FDA: The Case of the Prescription Drug User Fee Acts.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 11724, October 2005. www.nber.org/papers/w11724.pdf?new_window=1.

  FDA announces its approval: Sam Kazman,“Drug Approvals and Deadly Delays.” Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, November 1, 2010, 101–103. www.jpands.org/vol15no4/kazman.pdf.

  “there is no clear evidence”: “Artificial Sweeteners and Cancer,” National Cancer Institute Fact Sheet, 2009. www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/factsheet/Risk/artificial-sweeteners.

  “the current body of evidence”: Commission on Life Sciences, Possible Health Effects of Exposure to Residential Electric and Magnetic Fields. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 1997, 2 [online]. fermat.nap.edu/books/0309054478/html/2.html.

  seven-year epidemiological study: Questions and Answers About the National Cancer Institute/Children’s Cancer Group Study Finds Magnetic Fields Do Not Raise Children’s Leukemia Risk, NIH Press Release, July 2, 1997. www.nih.gov/news/pr/jul97/ncib-02.htm.

  “The EMF controversy”: Robert Park, “Voodoo Science and the Power-Line Panic.” Forbes, May 15, 2000, 128.

  ordinance requiring radiation warning labels: Ronnie Cohen, “San Francisco Surrenders in Fight Over Cell Phone Warnings.” Reuters, May 8, 2013. www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/08/us-usa-sanfrancisco-cellphones-idUSBRE9470I720130508.

  “to date there is no evidence”: “Cell Phones and Cancer Risk.” National Cancer Institute Fact Sheet, 2013. www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/factsheet/Risk/cellphones.

  “full and inclusive assessments”: Eric Hoffman et al. The Principles for the Oversight of Synthetic Biology. Friends of the Earth, March 2012.

  “rooted in the precautionary principle”: Eric Hoffman, “Global Coalition Calls for Oversight of Synthetic Biology.” Friends of the Earth, March 13, 2012.

  “synthetic biology does not”: Presidential Commission for the Study of Bioethical Issues, New Directions: The Ethics of Synthetic Biology and Emerging Technologies. December 1, 2010, 124.

  “a more comprehensive application”: Georgia Miller, “Who’s Afraid of the Precautionary Principle.” Friends of the Earth, 2010. nano.foe.org.au/node/186.

  “not to judge things”: Frédéric Bastiat, “What Is Seen and Unseen.” Selected Essays in Political Economy, Library of Economics and Liberty. www.econlib.org/library/Bastiat/basEss1.html.

  Why is it safer”: Jonathan Adler, “The Problems with Precaution: A Principle Without Principle.” The American, May 25, 2011.

  “The rhetoric works”: Aaron Wildavsky and Adam Wildavsky, “Risk and Safety. “Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, 2nd ed. www.econlib.org/library/Enc/RiskandSafety.html.

  forbade the chemical manufacturer: Ronald Bailey, “Brain Drain.” Forbes, November 27, 1989, 261.

  “generic focus on new products”: Gary Marchant et al., Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST). Impact of the Precautionary Principle on Feeding Current and Future Generations. Issue Paper 52. CAST, Ames, Iowa, 2013.

  “The true key to the timing”: Joel Mokyr, The Gifts of Athena: Historical Origins of the Knowledge Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002.

  “Liberalism and science”: Timothy Ferris in Michael Shermer, “Democracy’s Laboratory: Are Science and Politics Interrelated?” Scientific American, September 2010. www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=democracys-laboratory.

  “Human reason can neither predict”: Friedrich Hayek, The Constitution of Liberty: The Definitive Edition, ed. Ronald Hamowy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2011, 94.

  Wherever the institutions: Daron Acemoğlu and James Robinson, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. New York: Crown Business, 2012.

  freedom means the renunciation: Friedrich A. Hayek, The Constitution of Liberty. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1978, 572. nazbol.net/library/authors/Friedrich%20August%20Hayek/Friedrich_Hayek%20-%20The_constitution_of_liberty.pdf.

  “Nowhere is freedom”: Hayek, The Constitution of Liberty, 394.

  4. What Cancer Epidemic?

  “growing scientific consensus”: Pesticide Action Network, “Cancer.” www.panna.org/your-health/cancer.

  “Consider the deadly”: Paul Farrell, “World War III: The 12-Bomb Equation.” Wall Street Journal MarketWatch, September 29, 2009. mammonmessiah.blogspot.com/2010/06/paul-farrell-world-war-iii-12-bomb.html.

  “the true burden of”: Tiffany O’Callaghan, “President’s Panel Analyzes Environmental Cancer Impact.” Time, May 6, 2010. healthland.time.com/2010/05/06/presidents-panel-analyzes-environmental-cancer-impact/.

  “With nearly 80,000”: LaSalle D. Leffall Jr. and Margaret L. Kripke, Reducing Environmental Cancer Risk: What We Can Do Now. National Cancer Institute, President’s Cancer Panel, April 2010. deainfo.nci.nih.gov/advisory/pcp/annualReports/pcp08-09rpt/PCP_Report_08-09_508.pdf.

  “Another possible threat”: Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich, “Can a Collapse of Global Civilization Be Avoided?” Proceedings of the Royal Society B 282.1801 (March 7, 2013). rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845.full.

  seven out of te
n Americans: Kevin Stein, Luhua Zhao, Corrine Crammer, and Ted Gansler, “Prevalence and Sociodemographic Correlates of Beliefs Regarding Cancer Risks.” Cancer 100.5 (September 1, 2007): 1139–1148. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cncr.22880/full.

  “Because the rate”: Rebecca Viksnins Snowden, “Cancer Death Rate Steadily Declining,” citing John R. Seffrin, American Cancer Society, May 27, 2009. www.cancer.org/cancer/news/cancer-death-rate-steadily-declining.

  “It is gratifying”: Harold Varmus, cited in “Report to the Nation Finds Continued Declines in Many Cancer Rates.” National Cancer Institute, March 21, 2011. www.cancer.gov/newscenter/newsfromnci/2011/ReportNation2011Release.

  “Carson used DDT”: Pesticide Action Network, “The DDT Story.” www.panna.org/issues/persistent-poisons/the-ddt-story.

  “wonder insecticide”: Edmund Russell, War and Nature: Fighting Humans and Insects Using Chemicals from World War I to Silent Spring. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001.

  “to only a few chemicals”: Tina Rosenberg, NAS report cited in “What the World Needs Now Is DDT.” New York Times Magazine, April 11, 2004. www.acadiau.ca/~sskjei/cgi-bin/2713/Readings/rosenberg.pdf.

  “In 1820 about”: Francis Joseph Weiss, “Chemical Agriculture.” Scientific American, August 1, 1952, 18.

  Agricultural productivity in the United States: Fast Facts About Agriculture. American Farm Bureau Federation, 2014. www.fb.org/index.php?fuseaction=newsroom.fastfacts.

  first cases of evolving insect resistance: Peter Jentsch, Historical Perspectives on Fruit Production: Fruit Tree Pest Management, Regulation and New Chemistries. Cornell University’s Hudson Valley Lab. web.entomology.cornell.edu/jentsch/assets/historical-perspectives-on-apple-production.pdf.