The End of Doom

by Ronald Bailey

DDT is as carcinogenic: International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans. World Health Organization, March 31, 2014. monographs.iarc.fr/ENG/Classification/.

  largely dismissed the notion: Deposition of Wilhelm C. Hueper, MD, May 24, 1957, Lowe v. R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/vbk79a00;jsessionid=3F7F4CA89C0E4511C7A343999A512CC3.tobacco03.

  “that Americans born since”: Paul Ehrlich, “Eco-Catastrophe.” Ramparts, September 1969, 26. www.unz.org/Pub/Ramparts-1969sep-00024.

  Fifty years later: SEER Stat Fact Sheets: Leukemia. seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/leuks.html.

  relationship of cancer incidence to increasing age: Robin P. Hertz, Margaret McDonald, and Kimary Kulig, The Burden of Cancer in American Adults. Pfizer Global Pharmaceuticals, 2003. www.pfizer.com/files/products/The_Burden_of_Cancer_in_American_Adults.pdf.

  The American Cancer Society reports: “What Are the Key Statistics for Childhood Cancer?” American Cancer Society, January 31, 2014. www.cancer.org/cancer/cancerinchildren/detailedguide/cancer-in-children-key-statistics; Cancer Facts and Figures 2014, Special Section: “Cancer in Children and Adolescents.” American Cancer Society, 2014. www.cancer.org/acs/groups/content/@research/documents/webcontent/acspc-041787.pdf.

  age-adjusted incidence rates: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, SEER Cancer Statistics Review (1975–2009), Table 2.1, National Cancer Institute. seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2009_pops09/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&pageSEL=sect_02_Table.01.html.

  “is not believed to be causally related”: Eugenia Calle et al., “Organochlorines and Breast Cancer Risk.” CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians 52.5 (September/October 2002): 301–309. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.3322/canjclin.52.5.301/full.

  “Exposure to carcinogenic agents”: Cancer Facts and Figures 2014, American Cancer Society, 2014, 55. www.cancer.org/acs/groups/content/@research/documents/webcontent/acspc-042151.pdf.

  “Large organizations like”: “Harmful Substances—Chemicals, Pollution and Cancer,” Cancer Research UK, accessed June 27, 2014. www.cancerresearchuk.org/cancer-info/healthyliving/harmfulsubstances/harmful-substances-chemicals-pollution-and-cancer.

  “so low that they”: Committee on Comparative Toxicity of Naturally Occurring Carcinogens, Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet: A Comparison of Naturally Occurring and Synthetic Substances. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 1996. www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=5150&page=R1.

  cancers related to obesity: Rudolf Kaaks and Tilman Kühn, “Epidemiology: Obesity and Cancer—The Evidence Is Fattening Up.” Nature Reviews Endocrinology 10 (September 30, 2014), 644–645. www.nature.com/nrendo/journal/v10/n11/full/nrendo.2014.168.html; Nathan Berger, “Obesity and Cancer Pathogenesis.” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, April 11, 2014, 57–76. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nyas.12416/full; and Easter Vanni and Elisabetta Bugianesi, “Obesity and Liver Cancer.” Clinics in Liver Disease 18.1 (February 2014), 191–203. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1089326113000627.

  “DDT is not”: J. Gordon Edwards, “DDT: A Case Study in Scientific Fraud.” Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, Fall 2004, 86 [online]. www.jpands.org/vol9no3/edwards.pdf.

  “The ultimate judgment”: J. Gordon Edwards, “DDT: A Case Study in Scientific Fraud,” 86.

  “There is no objective reason”: William Souder, On a Farther Shore: The Life and Legacy of Rachel Carson, Author of Silent Spring. New York: Broadway Books, 2013.

  “tend to be morally suspicious”: Dan M. Kahan et al., “The Polarizing Impact of Science Literacy and Numeracy on Perceived Climate Change Risks.” Nature Climate Change 2 (August 16, 2012): 732–735. scholarship.law.gwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1298&context=faculty_publications.

  “general lack of interest”: Daniel W. Anderson, personal communication, 2004. reason.com/archives/2004/01/07/ddt-eggshells-and-me.

  eggshell thinning of some bird species: Rhys E. Green, “Long-Term Decline in the Thickness of Eggshells of Thrushes, Turdus spp., in Britain.” Proceedings of the Royal Society B 265 (April 22, 1998): 679–684. rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/265/1397/679.short.

  DDT did not cause eggshell: M. L. Scott et al., “Effects of PCBs, DDT, and Mercury Compounds Upon Egg Production, Hatchability and Shell Quality in Chickens and Japanese Quail.” Poultry Science 54 (1975): 350–368. ps.oxfordjournals.org/content/54/2/350.short.

  strict controls on DDT: Richard Tren, Richard Nchabi Kamwi, and Amir Attaran, “The UN Is Premature in Trying to Ban DDT for Malaria Control.” BMJ, October 10, 2012, 345. www.bmj.com/content/345/bmj.e6801.

  200 million people: Malaria Fact Sheet, World Health Organization, March 2014. www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs094/en/.

  most searching inquiry ever: Renee Twombly, “Long Island Study Finds No Link Between Pollutants and Breast Cancer.” JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute 94.18 (September 17, 2002): 1348–1351. jnci.oxfordjournals.org/content/94/18/1348.full.

  “are not associated”: Gina Kolata and Deborah Winn cited in “Looking for the Link.” New York Times, August 11, 2002. www.nytimes.com/2002/08/11/weekinreview/11KOLA.html.

  longer a woman breast-fed: Torgil Möller et al., “Breast Cancer and Breastfeeding: Collaborative Reanalysis of Individual Data from 47 Epidemiological Studies in 30 Countries, Including 50302 Women with Breast Cancer and 96973 Women Without the Disease.” Lancet 360.9328 (July 2002): 187–195. lup.lub.lu.se/search/publication/1123899.

  “This only appears”: “Is There a Cancer ‘Epidemic’?” Understanding Cancer Series, National Cancer Institute, January 28, 2005. www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/understandingcancer/cancer/page61.

  lifetime risk of: American Cancer Society, “Lifetime Risk of Developing and Dying of Cancer,” www.cancer.org/cancer/cancerbasics/lifetime-probability-of-developing-or-dying-from-cancer.

  If you live long: George Johnson, “Why Everyone Seems to Have Cancer.” New York Times, January 4, 2014. www.nytimes.com/2014/01/05/sunday-review/why-everyone-seems-to-have-cancer.html?_r=0.

  annual death rates: David S. Jones, Scott H. Podolsky, and Jeremy A. Greene, “The Burden of Disease and the Changing Task of Medicine.” New England Journal of Medicine 366 (June 21, 2012): 2333–2338. www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMp1113569.

  This initially sounds: Felicitie C. Bell and Michael L. Miller, “Life Tables for the United States Social Security Area 1900–2100.” Actuarial Study No. 120, Social Security Administration. www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Body.html.

  Today, 88 percent: Elizabeth Arias, “United States Life Tables, 2009.” National Vital Statistics Report, January 6, 2014. www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr62/nvsr62_07.pdf.

  In 1929, the first year: Elizabeth Arias, “United States Life Tables, 2009.”

  lung cancer death rate: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, “Achievements in Public Health, 1900–1999: Tobacco Use—United States, 1900–1999.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, November 5, 1999, 986–993, www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4843a2.htm

  endocrine disrupter conjecture: Howard A. Bern et al., “Statement from the Work Session on Chemically-Induced Alterations in Sexual Development: The Wildlife/Human Connection.” Wingspread Conference Center, July 1991. www.ourstolenfuture.org/consensus/wingspread1.htm.

  endocrine-related disorders: Ake Bergman et al., The State of the Science of Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals 2012: Summary for Decision-Makers. United Nations Environment Programme and the World Health Organization, 2012, 2.

  Alarm about: E. Carlsen et al., “Evidence for Decreasing Quality of Semen During Past 50 Years.” BMJ 305 (1992): 609–613. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1883354/pdf/bmj00091-0019.pdf.

  falling sperm counts: Steve Connor, “Why Be So Careless with the Facts?” The Independent, June 4, 1995. www.independent.co.uk/voices/why-be-so-careless-with-the-facts-1585007.html.

  “allegations for a worldwide”: Harr
y Fisch and Stephen R. Braun, “Trends in Global Semen Parameter Values.” Asian Journal of Andrology 15.2 (March 2013): 169–173. www.asiaandro.com/news/upload/20130912-aja2012143a.pdf.

  “generalized statements that hypospadias”: Suzan L. Carmichael, Gary M. Shaw, and Edward J. Lammer, “Environmental and Genetic Contributors to Hypospadias: A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence.” Birth Defects Research Part A: Clinical and Molecular Teratology 94.7 (July 2012): 499–510. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3393839/pdf/nihms387688.pdf.

  “While genes involved”: L. F. M. van der Zanden et al., “Aetiology of Hypospadias: A Systematic Review of Genes and Environment.” Human Reproduction Update 18.3 (February 26, 2012): 260–283.

  “A review of the epidemiologic data”: Harry Fisch, Grace Hyun, and Terry W. Hensle, “Rising Hypospadias Rates: Disproving a Myth.” The Journal of Pediatric Urology 6 (2010): 37–39. www.pedclerk.sites.uchicago.edu/sites/pedclerk.uchicago.edu/files/uploads/1-s2.0-S1477513109003490-main.pdf.

  “the trend of increasing adult height”: Fabrizio Giannandrea et al., “Case-Control Study of Anthropometric Measures and Testicular Cancer Risk.” Frontiers in Endocrinology 3 (November 26, 2012): 144. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3505837/#!po=4.54545.

  “changes in diet”: Elizabeth E. Hatch et al., “Association of Endocrine Disruptors and Obesity: Perspectives from Epidemiologic Studies.” International Journal of Andrology 33.2 (January 22, 2010): 1365–2605. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3005328/.

  changes in the number of calories: Earl S. Ford and William H. Dietz, “Trends in Energy Intake Among Adults in the United States: Findings from NHANES.” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 97.4 (April 2013): 848–853.

  “Over the last 50 years”: T. S. Church et al., “Trends over 5 Decades in U.S. Occupation-Related Physical Activity and Their Associations with Obesity.” PLoS One 6.5 (May 25, 2011): e19657. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0019657.

  being overweight escalates: Lei Chen, Dianna J. Magliano, and Paul Z. Zimmet, “The Worldwide Epidemiology of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus—Present and Future Perspectives.” Nature Reviews Endocrinology 8 (April 20, 2012): 228–236. 211.144.68.84:9998/91keshi/Public/File/34/-/pdf/nrendo.2011.183.pdf.

  “In no case was”: Kristina A. Thayer et al., “Role of Environmental Chemicals in Diabetes and Obesity: A National Toxicology Program Workshop Review,” Environmental Health Perspectives, June 2012. ehp.niehs.nih.gov/wp-content/uploads/120/6/ehp.1104597.pdf.

  earlier onset of puberty: Frank M. Biro et al., “Onset of Breast Development in a Longitudinal Cohort.” Pediatrics, November 5, 2013. pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2013/10/30/peds.2012-3773; Paul B. Kaplowitz, “Link Between Body Fat and the Timing of Puberty.” Pediatrics, February 1, 2008. pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/121/Supplement_3/S208.long.

  “no evidence to suggest an increase”: Guilherme V. Polanczyk et al., “ADHD Prevalence Estimates Across Three Decades: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis.” International Journal of Epidemiology 43.6 (January 24, 2014). ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/43/2/434.

  “hypothesis that the negligible exposure”: Gerhard J. Nohynek et al., “Endocrine Disruption: Fact or Urban Legend?” Toxicology Letters 223.3 (December 2013): 295–305.

  only 5 to 10 percent: Gautam Naik and S. Stanley Young cited in “Analytical Trend Troubles Scientists.” Wall Street Journal, May 4, 2012. online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303916904577377841427001840; see also S. Stanley Young and Alan Karr, “Deming, Data and Observational Studies: A Process out of Control and Needing Fixing.” Significance, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 8.3 (September 2011): 116–120. errorstatistics.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/young-karr-obs-study-problem.pdf.

  publish only studies with positive results: Gary Taubes, “Epidemiology Faces Its Limits.” Science 269.5221 (July 14, 1995), 169.

  “Investigators who find”: Taubes, “Epidemiology Faces Its Limits,” 169.

  little thing from a big thing: Taubes, “Epidemiology Faces Its Limits,” 164.

  “only primitive tools”: Samuel Shapiro, “Looking to the 21st Century: Have We Learned from Our Mistakes, or Are We Doomed to Compound Them?” Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety 13.4 (April 2004), 260.

  “pathological science”: Irving Langmuir and Robert N. Hall, “Pathological Science.” Physics Today, October 1989. scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/42/10/10.1063/1.88120.5.

  “the first characteristic”: Denis Rousseau, “Case Studies in Pathological Science,” American Scientist 80.1 (January–February 1992): 54–63.

  cell-based and animal model tests: Laura N. Vandenberg et al., “Hormones and Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals: Low-Dose Effects and Nonmonotonic Dose Responses.” Endocrine Reviews 33.3 (June 2012): 378–455. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3365860/.

  not careful enough: Frederick S. vom Saal et al., “Flawed Experimental Design Reveals the Need for Guidelines Requiring Appropriate Positive Controls in Endocrine Disruption Research.” Toxicological Sciences 15.2 (February 17, 2010): 612–613. toxsci.oxfordjournals.org/content/115/2/612.short.

  impervious to critiques: Leon E. Gray Jr. et al., “Rebuttal of ‘Flawed Experimental Design Reveals the Need for Guidelines Requiring Appropriate Positive Controls in Endocrine Disruption Research’ by vom Saal.” Toxicological Sciences 115.2 (March 5, 2010): 614–620. toxsci.oxfordjournals.org/content/115/2/614.full#ref-68.

  “contradicts centuries of”: Nohynek et al., “Endocrine Disruption: Fact or Urban Legend?”

  “nutribogus epidemiology”: John P. A. Ioannidis, “Why Science Is Not Necessarily Self-Correcting.” Perspectives on Psychological Science 7.6 (November 2012): 645–654. 130.236.177.26/~729A94/mtrl/Why_science_is_not_necessarily_self-correcting.pdf.

  “vested interest of scientists”: Nohynek et al., “Endocrine Disruption: Fact or Urban Legend?”

  5. The Attack of the Killer Tomatoes?

  “overall cancer incidence rates”: Report Prepared by the Hawai’i Tumor Registry for the Hawai’i State Department of Health: Kaua’i Cancer Cases, April 2013. health.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Kauai-Cancer-Cases-April-2013.pdf.

  “There’s no real consensus”: Doug Gurian-Sherman, “Are GMOs Worth the Trouble?” MIT Technology Review, March 27, 2014. www.technologyreview.com/view/525931/are-gmos-worth-the-trouble/.

  a worldwide moratorium: Paul Berg et al., “Potential Biohazards of Recombinant DNA Molecules.” Letter to the Editor, Science 185.4148 (July 16, 1974): 303.

  “In the case of recombinant DNA”: Liebe Cavalieri, “New Strains of Life—or Death.” New York Times Magazine, August 22, 1976, 67.

  “We want to be damned”: Alfred Vellucci, cited in John Kifner, “‘Creation of Life’ Experiment at Harvard Stirs Heated Debate.” New York Times, June 17, 1976, 1.

  “one of the world’s major”: Cambridge Community Development Department, “Cambridge: The Brains of Biotech, The Heart of Innovation,” brochure. Downloaded 2014.

  “Scientifically I was a nut”: James Watson, personal communication to Ronald Bailey, cited in Eco-Scam: The False Prophets of Ecological Apocalypse. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1993, 94.

  “In looking back”: Burke Zimmerman, Biofuture: Confronting the Genetic Era. New York: Plenum Press, 1984, 176.

  “The traditional notion”: Ted Howard and Jeremy Rifkin, Who Should Play God? The Artificial Creation of Life and What It Means for the Future of the Human Race. New York: Delacorte Press, 1977, 223.

  “Humanity seeks the elation”: Jeremy Rifkin, Algeny: A New Word—A New World. New York: Penguin, 1984, 47.

  “as a cleverly constructed tract”: Stephen Jay Gould “Review of Algeny.” Discover, January 1985, 34.

  “milk from treated cows”: FDA, Animal Veterinary, Product Safety Information, Bovine Somatotropin, January 28, 2014. www.fda.gov/AnimalVeterinary/SafetyHealth/ProductSafetyInformation/ucm055435.htm.

  regulators i
n Europe: Ladina Caduff, “Growth Hormone and Beyond.” Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Working Paper 8-2002.

  Bt protein is safe: EPA, Bt Plant-Incorporated Protectants October 15, 2001: Biopesticides. Registration Action Document. www.epa.gov/oppbppd1/biopesticides/pips/bt_brad2/2-id_health.pdf.

  herbicide resistance trait: EPA, Attachment III: Environmental Risk Assessment of Plant Incorporated Protectant (PIP) Inert Ingredients, December 2005. www.epa.gov/scipoly/sap/meetings/2005/december/pipinertenvironmentalriskassessment11-18-05.pdf.

  resource-poor farmers: International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications, ISAAA Brief 46, “Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2013,” Executive Summary, March 25, 2014. www.isaaa.org/resources/publications/briefs/46/executivesummary/default.asp.

  “led to strong distrust”: Sylvie Bonny, “Factors Explaining Opposition to GMOs in France and the Rest of Europe,” in Consumer Acceptance of Genetically Modified Foods, Robert Evenson and Vittorio Santaniello, eds. Cambridge, MA: CABI Publishing, 2004, 181.

  “increased the public’s attention”: Bonny, “Factors Explaining Opposition to GMOs in France and the Rest of Europe,” 174.

  “symbolizes the negative aspects”: Bonny, “Factors Explaining Opposition to GMOs in France and the Rest of Europe,” 183–184.

  “We call on the government”: Ranjit Devraj, “Health-India: Indian Cyclone Victims Guinea Pigs for U.S. Genetic Food.” Interpress Service News Agency, June 12, 2000. www.ipsnews.net/2000/06/health-india-indian-cyclone-victims-guinea-pigs-for-usgenetic-food/.

  “To accuse the US”: Ronald Bailey, “Dr. Strangelunch.” Reason, cited Per Pinstrup-Andersen, January 1, 2000. reason.com/archives/2001/01/01/dr-strangelunch.

  “We would rather starve”: Jennifer Cooke and Richard Downie, “African Perspectives on Genetically Modified Crops.” A Report of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Global Food Security Project, July 2010, 6. dspace.cigilibrary.org/jspui/bitstream/123456789/28948/1/African%20perspectives%20on%20genetically%20modified%20crops.pdf?1.