57. Zbigniew Brzezinski interview, September 16, 1991.
58. Public Papers of the Presidents, Jimmy Carter, 1977, Vol. I, May 3, 1977, 776–7, and May 10, 1977, 848–54.
59. Pad 6, January 27, 1977.
60. Ibid.
61. Pad 17, June 7, 1977.
62. Pad 18, June 10, 1977.
63. Pad 19, June 27, 1977.
64. Pad 28, June 28, 1977.
65. Edward C. Keefer, Harold Brown, Offsetting the Soviet Military Challenge, 1977–1981, Secretaries of Defense Historical Series, Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 2017, xvi.
66. Ibid., 545–6.
67. Pad 55, June 4, 1979.
68. Keefer, Offsetting the Soviet Military Challenge, 359, 558.
69. Frank L. Jones, “A ‘Hollow Army’ Reappraised: President Carter, Defense Budgets, and the Politics of Military Readiness,” Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA, October 2012.
70. James Luko, “Carter Revisited,” The Nolan Chart, February 4, 2014, www.nolanchart.com.
71. Wesley Morgan, “The B-1 Bomber: The Underappreciated Workhorse of America’s Air Wars,” The Washington Post, December 30, 2015.
72. Jimmy Carter interview, September 27, 2013.
73. Benjamin B. Fischer, “A Cold War Conundrum: The 1983 Soviet War Scare,” Center for the Study of Intelligence, Washington, D.C., 1994.
74. Fischer cites KGB No. 373/PR/52 Top Secret, February 1983, Copy No. 1, Attachment 2, excerpt from “The Problem of Discovering Preparation for a Nuclear Missile Attack on the USSR.” He also cites Markus Wolf, Man Without a Face: The Autobiography of Communism’s Greatest Spymaster (Times Books/Random House, 1997), 222. Wolf interviewed his fellow spymaster Andropov.
75. Robert Gates, From the Shadows, 111–3.
76. Harold Brown interview, April 29, 2014.
77. Walter Pincus, “Neutron Killer Warhead Buried in ERDA Budget,” The Washington Post, June 6, 1977; Bernard Weinraub, “What Role for the Neutron Bomb?” The New York Times, July 17, 1977; Stuart E. Eizenstat, “Case Study on the Neutron Bomb for the Kennedy School of Government,” 1988. See also Sherri Wasserman, The Neutron Bomb Controversy (New York: Praeger, 1987).
78. Harold Brown interview, September 11, 1992.
79. Pad 21, July 21, 1977.
80. Robert Hunter, interview with the author, September 29, 2014.
81. Pad 26, October 17, 1977.
82. Jimmy Carter interview, June 8, 1992.
83. Cyrus Vance, Hard Choices (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1983), 93–4.
84. Robert Hunter interview, September 29, 2014.
85. Pad 32A, April 10, 1978.
86. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Power and Principle (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 1983), 304–5.
87. Written response by Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, August 28, 2007, to questions posed by the author.
88. Jimmy Carter interview, September 27, 2013.
89. Jimmy Carter, National Strategy Directive, August 24, 1977, 18.
90. Cyrus Vance, State Department Evening Report 06/1977, Carter Presidential Library and Museum; Frank L. Jones, “A ‘Hollow Army’ Reappraised: President Carter, Defense Budgets, and the Politics of Military Readiness,” Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), October 12, 2012, 26, www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1125.pdf.
91. Public Papers of the Presidents, Jimmy Carter, 1979, Vol. II, 2232–7.
92. Lawrence Malkin, in conversation with Reginald Bartholomew Brussels, Belgium, 1979.
93. Cyrus Vance, State Department Evening Report, 11/1979, Carter Presidential Library and Museum.
94. Robert Gates, From the Shadows, 112; Robert Gates, interview with the author, October 18, 2013.
95. Richard Gardner, Mission Italy (New York: Rowman & Littlefield, 2005), 247, 316–7, citing Mikhail Gorbachev, Memoirs (New York: Doubleday, 1996), 442–50.
96. Frank Jones, “A Hollow Army,” Strategic Studies Institute, 17.
97. Harold Brown, interview with the author, September 11, 1992.
98. Nicholas Thompson, The Hawk and the Dove: Paul Nitze, George Kennan and the History of the Cold War (New York: Henry Holt, 2009).
99. Anatoly Dobrynin, In Confidence, 390.
100. Cyrus Vance, Hard Choices, 48–9; Cyrus Vance, interview with the author, April 28, 1992.
101. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Power and Principle, 159; Zbigniew Brzezinski interviews, September 16, 1991, March 10, 2001, July 19, 2006, and October 14, 2015.
102. Paul Nitze, interview with the author, October 8, 1992; Paul Warnke, interview with the author, July 31, 1992.
103. Jimmy Carter interview, September 27, 2013; Cyrus Vance interview, April 28, 1992.
104. Jimmy Carter, Keeping Faith, 219; “Address Before the UN General Assembly,” Public Papers of the Presidents, Jimmy Carter, Vol. I, March 17, 1977, 446–51.
105. Nicholas Thompson, The Hawk and the Dove, 70.
106. Cyrus Vance, Hard Choices, 90.
107. Zbigniew Brzezinski, NSC Weekly Report to the President, March 3, 01–03, Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum, 1978; Cyrus Vance, Hard Choices, 88.
108. Jimmy Carter, Keeping Faith, 254.
109. Ibid., 256.
110. Zbigniew Brzezinski interview, September 16, 1991; and Jerry Rafshoon, interviews with the author, August 13, 2013, and June 16, 2016.
111. Zbigniew Brzezinski interview, September 16, 1991.
112. Robert Hunter interview, September 29, 2014; Public Papers of the Presidents, Jimmy Carter, 1978, Vol. I, Commencement Address at the U.S. Naval Academy, June 7, 1978, 1052–7.
113. Zbigniew Brzezinski interviews, September 16, 1991, July 16, 2006, March 10, 2001, October 14, 2015; Power and Principle, 201–23.
114. Jimmy Carter interview, September 27, 2013.
115. Cyrus Vance, Hard Choices, 109–10.
116. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Power and Principle, 223.
117. Jimmy Carter, White House Diary, 285.
118. Martin B. Gold, A Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act: Bridging the Strait (New York: Lexington Books, 2017).
119. Chris Horton, “Taiwan Fears for Detained Activist,” The New York Times, July 21, 2017.
120. Jimmy Carter, University of Virginia’s Miller Center of Public Affairs interview, November 29, 1982.
121. Zbigniew Brzezinski, NSC Weekly Report to the President, October 5, 1978, Carter Presidential Library and Museum.
122. Cyrus Vance, Hard Choices, 135.
123. Jerry Rafshoon interview, June 16, 2016.
124. David D. Newsome, “The Soviet Brigade in Cuba,” reviewed in Foreign Affairs, Fall 1987, by Gaddis Smith.
125. David Butler, “Russia’s Cuban Brigade,” Newsweek, September 10, 1979.
126. Stansfield Turner, interviews with the author, February 2, 1991, and March 20, 1991.
127. Jimmy Carter, Keeping Faith, 265.
128. Ira Shapiro, The Last Great Senate (New York: Public Affairs, 2012), 293–7, for an excellent discussion of the Senate consideration of SALT II, and, more generally, the exceptional Senate of that era.
Chapter 23
1. Zbigniew Brzezinski, interview with the author, February 18, 1992.
2. Robert Gates, interview with the author, October 18, 2013.
3. Cyrus Vance, State Department Evening Report, July 1979, 54; December 1979, 53; January 1980, 26, Carter Presidential Library and Museum; Robert Gates, From the Shadows (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007), 132.
4. Robert Gates, From the Shadows, 132.
5. Cyrus Vance, Evening Report, October 1979, 1
1; Zbigniew Brzezinski, Weekly Report, October 12, 1978, 4.
6. Robert Gates, From the Shadows, 133.
7. Cyrus Vance Evening Report, December 1979, 28.
8. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Power and Principle, 479.
9. Jimmy Carter, interview with the author, September 27, 2013.
10. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Weekly Report, December 21, 1979.
11. Jimmy Carter interview with Frank Reynolds, December 31, 1979, text in Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977–1980, Vol. I, 678, Office of the Historian of the State Department, 2015.
12. Robert Gates interview with the author, October 18, 2013.
13. Jimmy Carter interview, October 25, 1991.
14. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Weekly Report, April 8, 1980.
15. Jimmy Carter interview, September 27, 2013.
16. Jimmy Carter, White House Diary, 388–91.
17. Jimmy Carter, Iowa Agricultural Speech, “President Jimmy Carter’s Campaign Promises,” August 25, 1976, Commerce Clearance House, Chicago, 1977, taken from the memorandum by the author and David Rubenstein to President-elect Carter, November 30, 1976.
18. Pad 73, January 2, 1980.
19. Pad 73, January 10, 1980; Pad 74, January 15, 1980.
20. Pad 73, January 3, 1980.
21. Public Papers of the Presidents, Jimmy Carter, 1980–81, Vol. I, January 4, 1980, 21–4.
22. Pad 73, January 9, 1980.
23. Pad 73, January 10, 1980.
24. Ibid.; Robert Berglund, interview with the author, January 12, 1990.
25. Pad 73, January 7, 1980.
26. Pad 73, January 10, 1980.
27. Ibid.
28. Cyrus Vance, State Department Evening Reports to the President, January 1980. Carter Presidential Library and Museum.
29. Ibid., 1980.
30. Jimmy Carter, White House Diary, 393; for an excellent analysis of the grain embargo, see Roger B. Porter, The U.S.-U.S.S.R. Grain Agreement (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1984).
31. Pad 73, January 9, 1980.
32. Pad 74, January 13, 1980.
33. Pad 75, January 28, 1990.
34. Pad 77, February 21, 1980.
35. Cyrus Vance, State Department Evening Report, January 1980, 39, 43, Carter Presidential Library and Museum; Jimmy Carter interview, September 27, 2013.
36. Cyrus Vance, State Department Evening Report, January 1980, 54, Carter Presidential Library and Museum.
37. Pad 74, January 22, 1980.
38. Jimmy Carter, White House Diary, 394.
39. Pad 74, January 15, 1980.
40. Pad 74, January 14, 1980.
41. Pad 74, January 16, 1980.
42. Public Papers of the Presidents, Jimmy Carter, 1980–81, Vol. I, January 23, 1980, 194–200.
43. David Aaron and Madeleine Albright, conversation with the author, June 9, 2017.
44. Lawrence Malkin, World Policy Institute of the New School University, New York, Fall 2000, 55.
45. Anatoly Dobrynin, In Confidence (New York: Times Books/Random House, 1995), 442–6.
46. Pad 73, January 9, 1980.
47. Mark Kramer, Soviet Deliberations During the Polish Crisis, 1980–1981, Special Working Paper (Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1999). www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/ACF56F.PDF.
48. David Aaron and Madeleine Albright, conversation with the author, June 9, 2017.
49. Quoting Douglas Brinkley, American Experience, “Jimmy Carter (Part 2),” Episode 174. Directed by Adriana Bosch. PBS, aired on November 12, 2002.
PART VII
24. The Malaise Speech
1. Elizabeth Drew, interview with the author, October 6, 2015, and telephone call, October 22, 2017.
2. Jimmy Carter, interview with the author, October 25, 1991.
3. University of Virginia Miller Center of Public Affairs, Timeline for Presidents.
4. Patrick Caddell, interview with the author, January 6, 1993.
5. Jane Mayer, “Trump’s Money Man,” The New Yorker, March 27, 2017.
6. Patrick Caddell memorandum to President-elect Jimmy Carter 19, January, 1977, Carter Presidential Library and Museum; and Patrick Caddell Oral History interview, Miller Center of Public Affairs, April 1, 1982.
7. Jerry Rafshoon, interview with the author, February 26, 1990.
8. Elizabeth Drew, interview with the author, October 6, 2015; see also Elizabeth Drew, “A Reporter at Large,” The New Yorker, July 18, 1977, and subsequent articles, for a thorough review of this period.
9. Pad 32A, April 16–17, 1977.
10. Copies of minutes taken by President Carter’s personal secretary Susan Clough, April 16–17, 1978, of the President’s meetings at Camp David with his Cabinet and White House staff, Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum; also Jimmy Carter interview, June 8, 1992.
11. Ibid.
12. Patrick Caddell interviews, April 1, 17, 1993.
13. Jerry Rafshoon memorandum to members of White House staff, January 22, 1979, in author’s possession and Carter Presidential Library.
14. William Safire, “The New Foundation,” The New York Times, January 25, 1979.
15. Charles B. Seib, “Soft Spot for a New Slogan,” The Washington Post, February 2, 1979.
16. Patrick Caddell interviews, April 1, 17, 1993.
17. Elizabeth Drew, “A Reporter at Large,” The New Yorker, August 27, 1979.
18. Jimmy Carter interview, September 27, 2013.
19. Patrick Caddell interview, April 1, 1993.
20. Walter Mondale, in conversation with the author, October 20, 2015.
21. George J. Lankevich, editor, James E. Carter, 1924–: Chronology, Documents, Bibliographical Aids (Dobbs Ferry, NY: Oceana Publications, 1981), 45–6.
22. Pad 55, June 2, 1979.
23. Pad 56, June 12, 1979.
24. Patrick Caddell interview, April 1993.
25. Stuart Eizenstat Memorandum to the President, Collection: Office of Staff Secretary; Series: Presidential Files; Folder [Trip to Japan and Korea, 6/22/79][1]; Container 122, Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum.
26. Pad 58, July 3, 1979.
27. Pad 58, July 9, 1979.
28. American Experience. “Jimmy Carter (Part 2).” Episode 174. Directed by Adriana Bosch. Aired on PBS, November 12, 2002.
29. Patrick Caddell memorandum to the president, “Of Crisis and Opportunities”, April 23, 1979, in author’s possession, and Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum.
30. Hamilton Jordan, interview with the author, May 11, 1992.
31. Hamilton Jordan, University of Virginia’s Miller Center of Public Affairs interview, November 6, 1981.
32. Patrick Caddell interview, April 17, 1993; Hendrick Hertzberg interview, with the author, April 27, 1992.
33. Jimmy Carter, White House Diary, 340.
34. Pad 58, July 4, 1979.
35. Hendrick Hertzberg, interview with the author, April 27, 1991.
36. Jerry Rafshoon interview, February 26, 1990.
37. Ibid.
38. Pad 58, July 4, 1979.
39. Jerry Rafshoon, University of Virginia’s Miller Center of Public Affairs interview.
40. Jimmy Carter interview, June 8, 1992.
41. Ibid., October 25, 1991.
42. Jimmy Carter, White House Diary, 340.
43. Pad 58, July 5, 1979.
44. W. Michael Blumenthal, interview with the author, April 27, 1992; W. Michael Blumenthal, From Exile to Washington (London: D
uckworth, 2014), 316–7.
President Carter Page 117