The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics

by Andrew Small

  172. Jane Perlez, “Onetime Taliban handler dies in their hands”, New York Times, 24 Jan. 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/25/world/asia/25pakistan.html, last accessed 22 Dec. 2013; Karin Brulliard, “In Pakistan, ex-spy Khalid Khawaja’s killing is surrounded by mystery”, Washington Post, 3 May 2010, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/02/AR2010050202801.html, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  173. “Pak-China rapidly boosting economic, cultural cooperation”, The News Tribe, 29 May 2013, http://www.thenewstribe.com/2013/03/29/pakchina-rapidly-boosting-economic-cultural-cooperation/, last accessed 27 Nov. 2013.

  174. Alessandro Rippa, “From Uyghurs to Kashgari”.

  175. Author interviews in Islamabad, and Lahore, Jun. 2009, Peshawar, June 2013.

  176. Ismail Khan, “The game is up for Uzbeks”, Dawn, 5 Apr. 2007, http://www.dawn.com/news/240842/the-game-is-up-for-uzbeks, last accessed 15 Jan. 2014.

  177. Holly Fletcher and Jayshree Bajoria, “The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM)”, Council on Foreign Relations, 31 Jul. 2008, http://www.cfr.org/china/east-turkestan-islamic-movement-etim/p9179, last accessed 15 Jan. 2014.

  178. Author interviews in Beijing, Nov. 2012.

  179. Author interviews in Islamabad and Lahore, Jun. 2009.

  180. Author interview in Beijing, 2009.

  181. Author interviews in Washington, DC, Feb. 2012.

  182. Author interviews in Beijing, Aug. 2009.

  183. Author interviews, 2012, location withheld.

  184. Author interview in Beijing, February 2014.

  185. Warikoo, K., “The Xinjiang Issue” in Marlene Laruelle and Sebastian Peyrouse (eds), Mapping Central Asia: Indian Perceptions and Strategies, Farnham: Ashgate, 2011, p. 226.

  5. THE TRADE ACROSS THE ROOF OF THE WORLD

  1. Khalid, Muhammad Mumtaz, History of the Karakoram Highway, Vol. II, Rawalpindi: Hamza, 2009, p. 5.

  2. Nisar Baluch quoted in Robert D. Kaplan, Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power, New York: Random House, 2011, p. 124.

  3. Musharraf, Pervez, In The Line Of Fire: A Memoir, New York: Free Press, 2006, p. 189.

  4. Li Zhisui, The Private Life of Chairman Mao: The Memoirs of Mao’s Personal Physician, London: Random House, 1996, p. 503.

  5. Leese, Daniel, Mao Cult: Rhetoric and Ritual in China’s Cultural Revolution, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2011, p. 220.

  6. “Keke mangguo enqing shen—Xinxin xiangzhi hongtaiying. Mao zhuxi zengsong zhengui liwu de teda xixun zhuankai yihou” (Every mango is full of deep kindness—every heart longs for the red sun: the time after the incredibly happy news had spread), People’s Daily, 8 Aug. 1968.

  7. Adam Yuet Chau, “Mao’s Travelling Mangoes: Food as Relic in Revolutionary China”, Past and Present, 2010, Supplement 5, p. 263.

  8. Ibid.

  9. Ibid.

  10. Farooq Baloch, “New Destination: Pakistani mangoes to be sold in Walmart China”, Express Tribune, 19 Aug. 2012, http://tribune.com.pk/story/423993/new-destination-pakistani-mangoes-to-be-sold-in-walmart-china/, last accessed: 26 Jan. 2014.

  11. Ibid.

  12. Ibid.

  13. Sahid Shah, “Pakistani mangoes lose markets to China, India”, The News, 26 Jul. 2012, http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3–122724-Pakistani-mangoes-lose-markets-to-China-India, last accessed 26 Jul. 2012.

  14. “Pakistan fails to achieve mango export target”, The News, 13 Oct. 2012, http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3–137176-Pakistan-fails-to-achieve-mango-export-target, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  15. Human Yusuf, “Mango mania”, Latitude Blog, New York Times, 31 Jul. 2012, http://latitude.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/31/the-mango-pakistans-king-of-fruits-may-not-meet-expectations/, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  16. Cited in, among others, Ahmad Faruqui, “A Blueprint for Pakistan’s Economic Revival”, IPRIPAK, Winter 2002, http://ipripak.org/journal/winter2002/ablueprintforpak.shtml, last accessed 27 Jan 2014.

  17. Trade data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) direction of trade statistic (DOTS), Chinese National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and World Trade Organization (WTO) statistics database.

  18. Ibid.

  19. Ibid.

  20. Data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

  21. Shahid Yusuf, “Can Chinese FDI Accelerate Pakistan’s Growth?”, International Growth Centre, 4 Feb. 2013, p. 2, http://www.theigc.org/publications/working-paper/can-chinese-fdi-accelerate-pakistan%E2%80%99s-growth, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  22. Fazlur Rehman, “Pakistan-China Trade and Investment Relations”, Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, 2011, p. 3, http://www.issi.org.pk/publication-files/1299822989_45060000.pdf, last accessed 23 Dec. 2013.

  23. Khan, Riaz Mohammad, Afghanistan and Pakistan: Conflict, Extremism, and Resistance to Modernity, Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2010, p. 11.

  24. Christopher Tang, “Beyond India: the Utility of Sino-Pakistani Relations in Chinese Foreign Policy, 1962–1965”, CWIHP Working Paper #64 http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/CWIHP_WP_64_Beyond%20India_The_Utility_of_Sino_Pakistani_Relations_in_Chinese_Foreign_Policy.pdf p6–7

  25. Jane Perlez, “Rebuffed by China, Pakistan may seek I.M.F. aid”, New York Times, 18 Oct. 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/world/asia/19zardari.html?ref=asia, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  26. Charles Wolf Jr., Xiao Wang and Eric Warner (eds), China’s Foreign Aid and Government-Sponsored Investment Activities: Scale, Content, Destinations and Implications, Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2013, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR100/RR118/RAND_RR118.pdf,last accessed 11 Dec. 2013.

  27. Ye Hailin, “China-Pakistan Relationship: All-Weathers, But Maybe Not All-Dimensional”, in Kristina Zetterlund (ed.), Pakistan—Consequences of Deteriorating Security in Afghanistan, Stockholm: Swedish Defence Research Agency, 2009, p. 117.

  28. Ibid. p. 109.

  29. Vertzberger, Yaacov Y.I., China’s Southwestern Strategy: Encirclement and Counterencirclement, New York: Praeger, 1985, pp. 94–5.

  30. Author’s interviews, Islamabad, Jun. 2011 and Jun. 2013.

  31. Fazlur Rehman paraphrased in “Pakistan-China Economic Relations with Special Focus on Thar Coal, Kashgar Special Economic Zone and Gwadar Sea Port”, Islamabad Policy Research Institute conference report, 13 Mar. 2013, p. 6, http://ipripak.org/conf/pcer.pdf, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  32. Xu Lin, “Top 10 fastest-growing provincial economies in China 2012”, 22 Feb. 2013, http://www.china.org.cn/top10/2013–02/22/content_28027035.htm, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  33. “China-Pakistan FTA”, China FTA Network, http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/topic/enpakistan.shtml, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  34. Wolf, Wang and Warner (eds), China’s Foreign Aid.

  35. Author’s interviews, Islamabad, Jun. 2013.

  36. Jim O’Neill, Dominic Wilson, Roopa Purushothaman and Anna Stupnytska, “How Solid are the BRICs?”, Global Economics Paper No. 134, Goldman Sachs, 1 Dec. 2005, http://www.sdnbd.org/sdi/issues/economy/BRICs_3_12–1–05.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  37. World Development Indicators, World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/countries/PK?display=graph, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  38. Pakistani growth rates went into free fall from 2006, reaching lows of under 2% in 2008 and then again in 2010. Figures recovered somewhat in 2012, hitting around 4%. Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/countries/PK?display=graph, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  39. Author interviews in Beijing, Nov. 2008.

  40. Ispahani, Mahnaz, Roads and Rivals: The Political Uses of Access in the Borderlands of Asia, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1989, p. 191.

  41. “Memo signed to Initiate China-Pakistan Highway renovation”, Xinhua, available on the Chinese government’s official web portal, 8 Jul. 2006, http://www.gov.cn/misc/2006–07/08/content_330955.htm, last accessed 27 J
an. 2014.

  42. “Raja to launch $282m KKH re-alignment project”, Pak Observer, 28 Sep. 2012, http://pakobserver.net/201209/28/detailnews.asp?id=175713, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  43. “Gojal: Karakoram Highway reconstruction to be completed in 2014”, Pamir Times, 16 Feb. 2013, http://pamirtimes.net/2013/02/17/gojal-karakoram-highway-repair-and-expansion-to-be-completed-in-2014/, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  44. Author interviews in Islamabad, Jun. 2013.

  45. Author interviews in Islamabad, Jun. 2011.

  46. Imtiaz Ahmad, “Gwadar awaits Chinese takeover”, Hindustan Times, 27 Feb. 2013, http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/gwadar-awaits-chinese-takeover/article1–1018585.aspx, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  47. Ibid.

  48. Kaplan, Monsoon, p. 74.

  49. Author interviews in Islamabad, Jun. 2013.

  50. Kemp, Geoffrey, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2010, p. 25.

  51. Zahid Ali Khan, “China’s Gwadar and India’s Chahbahar: an Analysis of Sino-India Geo-strategic and Economic Competition”, Strategic Studies, Winter 2012 & Spring 2013, Vol. XXXII & XXXIII, No. 4 & 1, http://www.issi.org.pk/publication-files/1379479541_87064200.pdf/, last accessed 26 Jan 2014.

  52. “Gwadar go ahead…”, World Cargo News, Apr. 2002, http://www.world-cargonews.com/htm/n20020401.518943.htm, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  53. Ziad Haider, “Baluchis, Beijing, and Pakistan’s Gwadar Port”, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Winter 2005, Vol. 6, No. 1, http://journal.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/6.1-Haider.pdf, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  54. “China may take over Gwadar port from Singaporean firm”, Express Tribune, 1 Sep. 2012, http://tribune.com.pk/story/429443/china-may-take-over-gwadar-port-from-singaporean-firm/, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  55. Zahid Ali Khan, “China’s Gwadar”.

  56. “Rs16.3bn released for Gwadar port project”, Dawn, 1 Jun. 2005, http://www.dawn.com/news/141662/rs16–3bn-released-for-gwadar-port-project,last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  57. Aiza Azam, “Gwadar: from slumber to strategic hub”, Youlin Magazine, 30 Jul. 2012, http://www.youlinmagazine.com/article/gwadar-from-slumber-to-strategic-hub/mzi=, last accessed 26. Jan 2014.

  58. “Makran Coastal Highway Project (MCHP)”, Frontier Works Organisation of Pakistan, http://www.fwo.com.pk/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=176:makran-coastal-highway-project-mchp, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  59. Musharraf, Pervez, “Address at the inauguration of Gwadar Deep Seaport”, 20 Mar. 2007, http://presidentmusharraf.wordpress.com/2008/01/07/gwadar-deep-seaport/, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  60. “Gwadar Port”, Business Recorder, 22 Feb. 2013, http://www.brecorder.com/editorials/0/1156300/, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  61. Syed Fazl-e-Haider, “China calls halt to Gwadar refinery”, Asia Times, 14 Aug. 2009, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KH14Df02.html, last accessed 26 Jan 2014.

  62. “Development of Gwadar Port road linkages NHA’s top priority”, The News, 17 Feb. 2009, http://archive.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=162987&Cat=2&dt=2/17/2009, last accessed 12 Dec. 2013.

  63. John Garver, “Development of China’s Overland Transportation Links with Central, South-west and South Asia”, China Quarterly, No. 185, Mar. 2006, pp. 1–22.

  64. Syed Fazl-e-Haider, “China calls halt”.

  65. Imtiaz Ahmad, “Gwadar awaits Chinese takeover”, Hindustan Times, 27 Feb. 2013, http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/gwadar-awaits-chinese-takeover/article1–1018585.aspx, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  66. Syed Fazl-e-Haider, “China set to run Gwadar port as Singapore quits”, Asia Times, 5 Sep. 2012, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/NI05Cb01.html, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  67. Author interviews in Islamabad, Jun. 2010.

  68. Syed Fazl-e-Haider, “China set to run”.

  69. Ziad Haider, “Baluchis, Beijing”.

  70. Author interviews in Islamabad, Jun. 2013.

  71. Frédéric Grare, “Pakistan: The Resurgence of Baluch Nationalism”, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2007, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/CP65.Grare.FINAL.pdf, last accessed 3 Jan. 2014.

  72. “Chinese, Pakistanis back at work in Gwadar”, Reuters, 7 May 2004

  73. “6 rockets fired near Gwadar airport”, Dawn, 22 May 2005, http://www.dawn.com/news/394288/6-rockets-fired-near-gwadar-airport, last accessed 23 Nov. 2013.

  74. “Rocket fired on PC Hotel Gwadar”, Daily Times, 7 Jul. 2010, http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010%EF%BF%BD7%EF%BF%BD7story_7–7–2010_pg7_4, last accessed 18 Nov. 2014.

  75. “Chinese camp in Pakistan attacked”, Shanghai Daily, 18 Nov. 2005, http://www.shanghaidaily.com/art/2005/11/16/214203/Chinese_camp_in_Pakistan_attacked.htm, last accessed 23 Nov. 2013.

  76. “Chinese workers feared dead in Pakistan bombing”, Associated Press, 19 Jul. 2007, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007–07/19/content_5439706.htm, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  77. Declan Walsh, “Chinese company will run strategic Pakistani port”, New York Times, 31 Jan. 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/01/world/asia/chinese-firm-will-run-strategic-pakistani-port-at-gwadar.xhtml?_r=0,last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  78. Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “Still a pipedream: Pakistan-to-China Rail Corridor is not a substitute for maritime transport”, China SignPost, No. 13, 22 Dec. 2010, http://www.chinasignpost.com/2010/12/still-a-pipedream-a-pakistan-to-china-rail-corridor-is-not-a-substitute-for-maritime-transport/, last accessed 13 Dec. 2013.

  79. John Lee and Charles Horner, “China faces barriers in the Indian Ocean”, Asia Times, 10 Jan. 2014, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/CHIN02–100114.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  80. James Holmes, U.S. Naval War College, quoted in “How important is Gwadar port for China?”, Asian Warrior, Jun. 2013, http://www.asianwarrior.com/2013/06/how-important-is-gwadar-port-for-china.html#.Uu3UkXmQePE, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  81. Farhan Bokhari and Kathrin Hille, “Pakistan turns to China for naval base”, Financial Times, 22 May 2011, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3914bd36–8467–11e0-afcb-00144feabdc0.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  82. “Gwadar port integral to China maritime expansion”, Express Tribune, 17 Feb. 2013, http://tribune.com.pk/story/508607/gwadar-port-integral-to-china-maritime-expansion/, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  83. Indranil Banerjee, “The Indian Navy At War: 1971 Blockade From The Seas”, SAPRA India, http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/Navy/History/1971war/Banerjee.Html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  84. “Naval Moves Pose Pyschological Threat to Pakistan”, Stratfor, 23 May 2002, http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/688524/posts, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  85. Abdul Majeed and Anwar Kamal, Gwadar: Integrated Development Vision, Government of Baluchistan, Pakistan and IUCN, Pakistan, 2007, p. 1, http://cmsdata.iucn.org/downloads/pk_gwadar_idv.pdf, last accessed 13 Dec. 2013.

  86. “Navy to build base in Gwadar”, Daily Times, 19 Apr. 2004.

  87. Author interviews in Beijing, 2004–2011.

  88. Leslie Hook, “Chinese oil interests attacked in Libya”, Financial Times, 24 Feb. 2011, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/eef58d52–3fe2–11e0–811f00144feabdc0.html#axzz2nMSvVMji, last accessed 12 Dec. 2013.

  89. “In Libya, mass evacuation of foreigners continues”, VOA News, 22 Feb. 2011, http://www.voanews.com/content/us-other-nations-send-ferries-planes-to-libya-for-evacuations-116720514/135452.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  90. “269 Chinese nationals arrive in Khartoum from Libya”, Xinhua, 27 Feb. 2011, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011–02/27/c_13752794.htm, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  91. “Missile frigate Xuzhou transits Suez Canal, to arrive off Libya: China’s first operational deployment to Mediterranean addresses Libya’s evolving security situation”, China SignPost, 27 Feb. 2011, http://www.chi
nasignpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/China-SignPost_26_Furtheranalysis-of-Chinas-Libya-deployment_20110227.pdf, last accessed 13 Dec. 2013.

  92. Andrew Erickson and Austin Strange, “No Substitute for Experience: Chinese Antipiracy Operations in the Gulf of Aden”, U.S. Naval War College, China Maritime Study, No. 10, Nov. 2013, p. 139.

  93. Gabe Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Implications of China’s Military Evacuation of Citizens from Libya”, China Brief, Vol. 11, Issue 4, 10 Mar. 2011, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=37633&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=25&cHash=c1302a9ecaddfc23450fb6ec13a98136#.Uu3eBHmQePE, last accessed 14 Jan. 2014.

  94. Author interviews in Beijing, May 2011.

  95. “Suspicions on China’s taking over of Gwadar port are groundless”, People’s Daily, 20 Feb. 2013, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90883/8137013.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  96. Author interviews in Beijing, Feb. 2014.

  97. Li Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University, quoted in Hao Zhou, “China to run Pakistani port”, Global Times, 1 Feb. 2013, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/759538.shtml, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  98. Khalid, History, p. 14.

  99. Ibid. p. 59.

  100. Ibid. p. 22.

  101. Ibid. p. 282.

  102. Ibid. pp. 282–85.

  103. Ibid. p. 273.

  104. “Convention between Great Britain, China and Tibet”, Reproduced for the Islamabad Policy Research Institute Fact File, 3 Jul. 1914, http://www.ipripak.org/factfiles/ff43.shtml, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  105. Khalid, History, p. 383.

  106. Ispahani, Roads and Rivals, p. 201.

  107. Ibid. p. 22.

  108. Barry Naughton, “The Third Front: Defence Industrialisation in the Chinese Interior”, China Quarterly, No. 115, Sep. 1988, pp. 351–86, http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=3546864, last accessed 24 Jan. 2014.