War of Nerves

by Jonathan Tucker

  346 Emergency response to Sarin attack: Amy E. Smithson and Leslie-Anne Levy, Ataxia: The Chemical and Biological Terrorism Threat and the US Response, Report No. 35 (Washington, D.C.: Henry L. Stimson Center, October 2000), pp. 91–101; Per Kulling, “The Terrorist Attack with Sarin in Tokyo on 20 March 1995” (Stockholm: Socialstyrelsen), November 19, 1998, available online at www.sos.se/SOS/PUBL/REFERENG/9803020.htm.

  346 Number of ambulances: Tetsu Okumura, et al., “The Tokyo Subway Sarin Attack: Disaster Management, Part 1: Community Emergency Response,” Academic Emergency Medicine, vol. 5. no. 6 (June 1998), pp. 613–617.

  346 Casualties from Sarin attack: Nicholas D. Kristoff, “Hundreds in Japan Hunt Gas Attackers After 8 Die: Police Tighten Security Steps at Stations,” New York Times, March 21, 1995, p. A1.

  346 Police confirmed Sarin: Smithson and Levy, Ataxia, p. 94.

  347 Victims divided into three categories: Sadayoshi Ohbu, et al., “Sarin Poisoning on Tokyo Subway,” Southern Medical Journal, June 1997, available online at www.sma.org/smj/97june3.htm; Fred Sidell, U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Chemical Defense, “U.S. Medical Team Briefing,” in U.S. Public Health Service, Proceedings of the Seminar on Responding to the Consequences of Chemical and Biological Terrorism, p. 2-32.

  347 About 3,700 casualties were “worried well”: Sidell, “U.S. Medical Team Briefing,” p. 2-33.

  347 Secondary exposures from o f-gassing of Sarin: Okumura, et al., “The Tokyo Subway Sarin Attack, Disaster Management, Part 1,” p. 615.

  347–48 Decontamination of victims’ clothes: Jun Sato, “Sarin Cleanup Remembered,” The Daily Yomiuri (English-language Web site of Yomiuri Shumbun), March 16, 2003.

  348 Police raid on Aum facilities: Japan, National Police Agency, Police White Paper 1996.

  348 Police used caged canaries as Sarin detectors: Tu, “Aum Shinrikyo’s Chemical and Biological Weapons,” p. 66.

  348 Murder of Murai by yakuza: Olson, “Aum Shinrikyo: Once and Future Threat?,” p. 515.

  348 Arrest of Asahara: Kaplan and Marshall, The Cult at the End of the World, p. 281.

  350 Senator Helms blocked ratification of CWC: Michael Krepon, Amy E. Smithson, and John Parachini, The Battle to Obtain US Ratification of the Chemical Weapons Convention (Washington, D.C.: Henry L. Stimson Center, Occasional Paper no. 35, July 1997).

  CHAPTER EIGHTEEN: THE EMERGING THREAT

  351 UNSCOM retrieval of Iraqi documents from Muthanna: Krasno and Sutterlin, The United Nations and Iraq, pp. 67–68.

  352 Pentagon admitted nerve-agent release at Khamisiyah: Suzanne Gamboa, “VA Orders More Study of Deaths After Gulf War; Destroyed Iraqi Nerve Gases May Have Affected Soldiers,” Washington Post, March 4, 2002, p. A17; U.S. General Accounting Office, Gulf War Illnesses: DOD’s Conclusions about U.S. Troops’ Exposure Cannot Be Adequately Supported, GAO-04-159, June 2004, p. 7.

  353 Research by Robert W. Haley, M.D.: R. W. Haley, J. Hom, P. S. Roland, et al., “Evaluation of Neurologic Function in Gulf War Veterans: A Blinded Case-Control Study,” Journal of the American Medical Association, vol. 277 (1997), pp. 223–230; R. W. Haley, W. W. Marshall, G. G. McDonald, M. A. Daugherty, F. Petty, and J. L. Fleckenstein, “Brain Abnormalities in Gulf War Syndrome: Evaluation with 1H MR Spectroscopy,” Radiology, vol. 215 (2000), pp. 807–817; Robert W. Haley, Scott Billecke, and Bert N. La Du, “Association of Low PON1 Type Q (Type A) Arylesterase Activity with Neurologic Symptom Complexes in Gulf War Veterans,” Toxicology and Applied Pharmacology, vol. 157 (1999), pp. 227–233.

  354 Negotiation of conditions in Senate resolution of ratification: “Senate Advice and Consent Subject to Conditions,” Congressional Record—Senate, April 24, 1997, pp. S3651–S3657.

  354–55 Ratification vote in Senate: Michael Krepon, Amy E. Smithson, and John Parachini, The Battle to Obtain US Ratification of the Chemical Weapons Convention (Washington, D.C.: Henry L. Stimson Center, Occasional Paper No. 35, July 1997).

  356–57 Russian chemical weapons destruction: Jonathan B. Tucker, “Russia’s New Plan for Chemical Weapons Destruction,” Arms Control Today, vol. 31, no. 6 ( July– August 2001), pp. 9–13.

  357 Analysis of wipe samples from Iraqi “special” warheads: Krasno and Sutterlin, The United Nations and Iraq, pp. 68–69.

  357 UNSCOM Technical Evaluation Meeting: UNSCOM, “Report of the Group of International Experts on VX,” October 23, 1998, available online at www.cns.miis.edu/research/iraq/vxreprt.htm.

  357–58 Israeli debate over CWC ratification: Aluf Benn, “Terms for Chemical Nonproliferation Treaty,” Ha’aretz (in Hebrew), July 16, 1992, pp. A1, A8, translated in FBIS, JPRS-TND-92-024, July 21, 1992, pp. 12–13; Steve Rodan, “Bitter Choices: Israel’s Chemical Dilemma,” Jerusalem Post, August 18, 1997; Stephanie Nebehay, “Israel Not Ready to Ratify Chemical Weapons Pact,” Reuters, September 4, 1997; Lieutenant Colonel David Eshel, “Israel Grapples with CWC Ratification,” Armed Forces Journal International, September 1997, p. 24; Yair Evron, Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East, Occasional Paper no. 39 (Washington, D.C.: Henry L. Stimson Center, March 1998), pp. 36–37; Emily Landau and Tamar Malz, “Israel’s Arms Control Agenda,” Strategic Assessment (Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University), vol. 2, no. 4 (February 2000), pp. 21–25; Aluf Benn, “A Difficult Choice: the Chemical Weapons Convention,” Ha’aretz, November 29, 2000; Gerald M. Steinberg, “Israeli Policy on the CWC,” OPCW Synthesis, November 2002, pp. 29–31.

  358 Israeli chemical weapons program: Avner Cohen, “Israel: Reconstructing a Black Box,” in Wright, ed., Biological Warfare and Disarmament, pp. 181–212. See also, Avner Cohen, “Israel and Chemical/Biological Weapons: History, Deterrence, and Arms Control,” The Nonproliferation Review, vol. 8, no. 3 (Fall–Winter 2001), pp. 27–53.

  358 Israeli scientists visited French chemical test site: Hersh, The Samson Option, pp. 63–64.

  359 After Six-Day War, Israel expanded production of CW: Ian Black, “Israel Tries to Counter Arab Nerve Gas Threat,” The Guardian, December 12, 1986, p. 9.

  359 Israel Institute for Biological Research (IIBR) at Nes Ziona: Avner Cohen, “Israel: Reconstructing a Black Box,” in Wright, ed., Biological Warfare and Disarmament: New Problems/New Perspectives, pp. 181–212; Uzi Mahmaimi, “Israeli Jets Equipped for Chemical Warfare,” Sunday Times (London), October 4, 1998; “Israeli Plant May Produce Biological Arms,” Salt Lake Tribune, October 25, 1998; “Residents Near Israeli Institute Fear Nerve Gas Leak,” Fort Worth Star-Telegram, November 1, 1998.

  359 IIBR’s Organic Chemistry Department: See IIBR Web site, www.iibr.gov.il.

  359 IIBR paper on V agents: Julian Perry Robinson, “Behind the VX Disclosure,” New Scientist, January 9, 1975, p. 50.

  359 MALMAB responsible for security at IIBR: Yossi Melman, “Foreign Sources Say . . .” Ha’aretz (Internet edition), December 31, 2004.

  359 Crash of El Al cargo plane in Amsterdam in 1992: Mouin Rabbani, “El Al Flight 1862 and Israel’s Chemical Secrets,” Middle East International, October 16, 1998, pp. 20–22.

  360 Allegations of cover-up: Marlise Simons, “6 Years After Crash, Talk of Cover-Up: Health Problems Linked to 1992 Crash of El Al Cargo Plane in Amsterdam,” New York Times, February 9, 1999, p. A18.

  360 NRC Handelsblad reported on its investigation: Rabbani, “El Al Flight 1862,” p. 20.

  360 189 liters of DMMP supplied by Solkatronic: Ibid.

  361 “We fly sugar” quote by El Al spokesman: Joel Greenberg, “Nerve-Gas Element Was in El Al Plane Lost in 1992 Crash,” New York Times, October 2, 1998, p. A1.

  361 Statement by Ze’ev Schi f: Ze’ev Schiff, “The ‘Chemical Clock,’ ” Ha’aretz (in English), July 2, 1999.

  362 Bin Laden and Sudan: Clarke, Against All Enemies, pp. 141–145.

  363 Intelligence reports implicating Al-Shifa: James Risen, “To Bomb Sudan Plant, or Not: A Year Later, Debates Rankle,” New York Times, October 27, 1999.

  363 Ani link to Al-Shifa Factory: Associate
d Press, “Top Iraqi Scientist Surrenders to U.S.,” Washington Post, April 19, 2003, p. A20.

  364 Meeting of “Small Group”: Michael Barletta, “Chemical Weapons in the Sudan: Allegations and Evidence,” The Nonproliferation Review, vol. 6, no. 1 (Fall 1998), p. 116.

  365 Sandy Berger quote: Benjamin and Simon, The Age of Sacred Terror, p. 260.

  365–66 U.S. cruise missile attack on Al-Shifa Factory: Seymour M. Hersh, “The Missiles of August,” New Yorker, October 12, 1998, p. 40; Clarke, Against All Enemies, p. 188.

  367 Criticisms of Al-Shifa attack: Barletta, “Chemical Weapons in the Sudan: Allegations and Evidence,” pp. 119; Eric Croddy, “Dealing with Al Shifa: Intelligence and Counterproliferation,” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, vol. 15, no. 1 (2002), pp. 52–60.

  367 Al-Fadl testimony: Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon, “A Failure of Intelligence?” New York Review of Books, vol. 48, no. 20 (December 20, 2001), p. 76; Stephen F. Hayes, “Connecting the Dots in 1998, but Not in 2003,” The Weekly Standard, vol. 9, no. 16, December 29, 2003.

  367 Clarke testimony: Testimony of Richard A. Clarke, National Coordinator for Security, Infrastructure Protection, and Counterterrorism, before a joint hearing of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Joint Inquiry Briefing by Sta f on U.S. Government Counterterrorism Organizations (Before September 11, 2001) and on the Evolution of the Terrorist Threat and U.S. Response, 1986–2001, June 11, 2002, pp. 52–53.

  368 George W. Bush State of the Union address: Office of the Press Secretary, The White House, “President Delivers State of the Union Address,” January 29, 2002.

  368 CNN broadcast Al-Qaeda videotapes of experiments on dogs: Cable News Network, “Tapes Shed New Light on bin Laden’s Network,” August 19, 2002, available online at www.cnn.com/2002/US/08/18/terror.tape.main/.

  369 National Security Strategy: The White House, “The National Security Strategy of the United States of America,” September 2002, p. 15, available online at www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.pdf.

  369 Events leading up to Iraq War: Bryan Burrough, Evgenia Peretz, David Rose, and David Wise, “The Path to War,” Vanity Fair, May 2004, pp. 228–294.

  369 October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate: “Key Judgments from the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq’s Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction, October 2002,” in Cirincione, Mathews, and Perkovich, WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications, Appendix 1, pp. 63–65.

  369 “Dusty” agents: National Intelligence Council, Iraq’s Chemical Warfare Capabilities: Potential for Dusty and Fourth-Generation Agents, Memorandum to Holders of NIE 2002-16HC, November 2002.

  369–70 UNMOVIC inspections in Iraq: Blix, Disarming Iraq.

  370 Secretary Powell speech to U.N. Security Council: “U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell’s Address to the UN Security Council, February 5, 2003,” in Cirincione, Mathews, and Perkovich, WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications, Appendix 4, p. 88.

  370–71 President Bush ordered invasion of Iraq: George W. Bush, “Address to the Nation on War with Iraq,” Remarks in Washington, D.C., March 17, 2003.

  372 Preliminary findings of Iraq Survey Group: Fred Kaplan, “The Iraq Sanctions Worked,” Slate, October 7, 2003; author’s interview with David Kay.

  372 ISG final report: Iraq Survey Group, Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq’s WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction), September 30, 2004.

  373 Post-war looting: James Glanz and William J. Broad, “Looting at Weapons Plants Was Systematic, Iraqi Says,” New York Times, March 13, 2005, p. 1.

  373 Effectiveness of U.N. inspections: Walter Pincus, “Former U.N. Inspectors Cite New Report as Validation,” Washington Post, October 8, 2004, p. A30.

  373 Blix metaphor BEWARE THE DOG: Associated Press, “Hans Blix Says Iraq Probably Destroyed Most WMDs Long Ago,” September 17, 2003.

  373 Saddam Hussein’s balancing act: David Johnston, “Saddam Hussein Sowed Confusion About Iraq’s Arsenal as a Tactic of War,” New York Times, October 7, 2004, p. A22; Dana Priest, “Hussein’s Aims, Capabilities Often Differed,” Washington Post, October 8, 2004, p. A7.

  374 Reopening of Maddison case: BBC News, “ ‘Tricked’ into Nerve Gas Tests,” November 15, 2004.

  EPILOGUE: TOWARD ABOLITION

  375–76 Dismantling of binary plant at Pine Bluff: Amy Riggin, “Arsenal Sees End of Era,” Pine Bluff Commercial, January 6, 2005, available online at www.pbcommercial.com/articles/2005/01/06/news/news1.txt.

  376 Vast majority of nations have signed and ratified the CWC: See the Web site of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons at www.opcw.org.

  376 Libyan accession to the CWC: Joby Warrick and Peter Slevin, “Libya’s Disclosures Put Weapons in New Light,” Washington Post, March 2, 2004, p. A1; Associated Press, “Libya Details Its Chemical Weapons Hoard,” Washington Post, March 6, 2004, p. A14; Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, “OPCW Team Visits Libya,” Press Release No. 4, February 5, 2004.

  377 Statement by Syrian President Bashar alAssad: Benedict Brogan, “We Won’t Scrap WMD Stockpile Unless Israel Does, Says Assad,” Daily Telegraph [London], January 6, 2004, p. 1.

  377 Iranian chemical weapons program: Khalil Hasan, “Iran Said to Be Making Chemical Arms,” Daily Times (Pakistan), January 31, 2005.

  377 North Korean chemical weapons program: Associated Press, “Chem. Weapons Remain Threat to S. Korea,” New York Times, February 27, 2003; “DPRK’s Biological, Chemical Arms Plants Located Along Yalu River,” Yomiuri Weekly (Tokyo), December 1, 2002, pp. 14–16, translated in FBIS, document no. JPP20021124000044; Ruriko Kubota, “Former North Korean Chemist Reveals DPRK Carried Out Human Experimentation with Poison Gas at Prison Camp Beginning 25 Years Ago,” Sankei Shimbun (Tokyo), March 22, 2004, translated in FBIS, document no. JPP20040322000060.

  377 Brad Roberts quote: Brad Roberts, “Implementing the Biological Weapons Convention: Looking Beyond the Verification Issue,” in Oliver Thraenert, ed., The Verification of the Biological Weapons Convention: Problems and Perspectives (Bonn: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 1992), p. 104.

  377 Al-Abud network: Charles J. Hanley, “Iraq Insurgents Fail to Brew Chemical Arms,” Associated Press, April 12, 2005.

  378 Proliferation Security Initiative: Andrew C. Winner, “The Proliferation Security Initiative: The New Face of Interdiction,” The Washington Quarterly, vol. 28, no. 2 (Spring 2005), pp. 129–143.

  380 Weakening of CWC verification regime: Jonathan B. Tucker, “The Chemical Weapons Convention: Has It Enhanced U.S. Security?,” Arms Control Today, vol. 31, no. 3 (April 2001), pp. 8–12.

  380 Limitations on chemical sampling and analysis: Author’s interview with Ron Manley.

  382 Problems of Russian chemical weapons destruction: Susan B. Glasser, “Cloud over Russia’s Poison Gas Disposal,” Washington Post, August 24, 2002, pp. A1, A17; Jonathan B. Tucker, “Russia’s New Plan for Chemical Weapons Destruction,” Arms Control Today, vol. 31, no. 6 (July–August 2001), pp. 9–13; Sam Nunn, “We’re Failing to Meet the Real Nuclear Threat,” London Sunday Times, March 20, 2005.

  382–83 Problems of U.S. chemical weapons destruction: U.S. General Accounting Office, Report to the Chairman, House Committee on Armed Services, “Delays in Implementing the Chemical Weapons Convention Raise Concerns About Proliferation,” GAO-04-361, March 2004.

  384 Nonlethal chemical weapons, Moscow theater incident: William M. Arkin, “Pulling Punches: Big Plans for Futuristic, Nonlethal Weapons Are Afoot, But Their Use Would Raise Troubling Questions,” Los Angeles Times, January 4, 2004, p. M1; “Non-Lethal Weapons, the CWC and the BWC,” The CBW Conventions Bulletin, no. 61 (September 2003), pp. 1–2; Robin Coupland, “Incapacitating Chemical Weapons: A Year After the Moscow Theater Siege,” The Lancet, vol. 362, no. 9393 (October 25, 2003), p. 1346.

  385 Impact on CWC of advances in chemical technology: International Unio
n of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC), “Impact of Scientific Developments on the Chemical Weapons Convention” (special issue), Pure and Applied Chemistry, vol. 74, no. 12 (December 2002).

  GLOSSARY

  ACACIA French binary weapons program

  ACDA Arms Control and Disarmament Agency

  AEC Atomic Energy Commission

  AG Aktiengesellschaft (German word for “corporation”); Australia Group

  ALSOS Mission to investigate Nazi Germany’s unconventional weapons programs

  BDA Bilateral Destruction Agreement (U.S.-Soviet)

  BDO Battle-Dress Overgarment

  BIOS British Intelligence Objectives Subcommittee

  BMEWS Ballistic Missile Early Warning System

  BWC Biological Weapons Convention

  CAM Chemical Agent Monitor

  CBIC CW/BW Intelligence Committee

  CBR Chemical-Biological-Radiological

  CCD Conference of the Committee on Disarmament (U.N.)

  CCTC Chemical Corps Technical Committee (U.S. Army)

  CD Conference on Disarmament (U.N.)

  CDC Communicable Disease Center (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

  CDEE Chemical Defence Experimental Establishment (Porton Down, U.K.)

  CDG Chemical Destruction Group (UNSCOM)

  CDTF Chemical Defense Training Facility

  CERS Center for Scientific Studies and Research (Syria)

  CHASE “Cut holes and sink ’em”

  CIA Central Intelligence Agency

  CIOS Combined Intelligence Objectives Subcommittee

  CML C Chemical Corps (U.S. Army)

  CNN Cable News Network

  CPSU Communist Party of the Soviet Union

  CSDIC Combined Staff Defence Intelligence Committee (U.K.)

  CW Chemical warfare

  CWC Chemical Weapons Convention

  CWS Chemical Warfare Service (U.S. Army)

  DAP Destruction Advisory Panel (UNSCOM)

  DC Dichlor (methylphosphonic dichloride)

  DCI Director of Central Intelligence