Peace

by Jeff Nesbit

  “And as I said—perhaps that is so,” Zhubin answered. “But that is not important now. What is important is that we control that passage right now. And, unless the United States is willing to take certain actions and repair the damage that has been done, we are prepared to do what we must do.”

  “General, what actions would you have us take?”

  “We would like you to condemn Israel’s actions, in the strongest possible language. We would like you to stop arming Israel. We would like you to help us repair our civilian nuclear facilities—those that Israel just attacked—and supply us with the enriched uranium we need to operate those peaceful facilities. We would like the United States to permanently relocate the 5th Fleet away from the Gulf of Oman, where it consistently threatens Iran. We would like the United States to give up its mindless allegiance to the corrupt Sunni monarchies in Saudi Arabia and other countries. And, of course, we would like a permanent, free Arab state on the lands illegally seized by Israel—one that is not cobbled together with useless pieces of land—that gives the dispossessed Palestinian peoples a real homeland.”

  Susan almost laughed. “Is that all?”

  “It would be a good start,” Zhubin answered.

  “Is there something from that list that would help ease tensions right now?”

  “Dr. Wright, I want to be clear,” Zhubin said, deadly serious. “We are prepared to act against any and all targets—military or otherwise—in the countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz if you do not move the 5th Fleet away from the Gulf of Oman immediately.

  “We both know what happens to the price of oil if there is a serious, permanent disruption in facilities and traffic. Neither of us, I can assure you, wish for that to happen.”

  “So that’s what you’re asking? You’d like us to move the 5th Fleet away from the Strait?”

  “Yes, that would be an excellent place to start a discussion. We would also like Israel to remove their Dolphin submarines from the Suez Canal as well and return to port in the Mediterranean.”

  “Israel is a sovereign nation. They make their own decisions about their own national security interests.”

  “Yes, but they listen to the United States.”

  Susan chose to ignore that line of reasoning. “And if our 5th Fleet continues to move forward, toward Bandar Abbas?”

  “You do not want to do that, Dr. Wright,” Zhubin answered. “Trust me. No one will like what happens next if you do not withdraw the 5th Fleet immediately. We both know that we have the capability—and the expertise—to do what is necessary.”

  “You would target oil facilities in other nations in the region?”

  “There are many targets and many opportunities. Neither of us wishes to test further the possibilities or suitable targets of opportunity. Withdraw your 5th Fleet, Dr. Wright, before it’s too late.”

  38

  JERUSALEM, ISRAEL

  Throughout the course of his life—first as a pilot and then, later, as a politician in the rough-and-tumble world of consensus-building politics in Israel—Judah Navon had come to believe that there was just one way to live your life. You charted your course, and you never deviated from it.

  There had been times, as a pilot, that he’d questioned the mission. But he’d never deviated from the mission or from the target that had been set. It had become ingrained in him. Once the path was set, you followed it. He viewed politics much the same way. Once you’d decided on a plan, you didn’t move away from it.

  It had always served him well. Political fads came and went, but Navon always believed there was only one purpose to politics in Israel. You were there to serve the national interests of Israel—to protect it against enemies on all sides intent on destroying the country and its people—and nothing should ever move you away from that mission.

  Navon feared no one—at least no human being on earth. He was willing to engage with any leader, anywhere, for the sake of Israel.

  But in all his years of blunt dealing with both enemies and friends, Navon had never seen a time such as this. He’d never felt so alone in the world, so dependent on the strength of the Israeli people, and so vulnerable to attacks from neighbors who grew stronger on a daily basis.

  He’d always been able to look over the horizon. It was his gift—the ability to see a threat even before it had made its appearance. This time he could not only see, but feel, the threats starting to accumulate just over Israel’s horizon.

  Despite the successful F-117 raids into Iran, Navon knew that Iran’s military would return at some point in the coming years, stronger than ever. It was inevitable. Iran was intent on building an empire, and it had the resources to do so. Iran would, at some point, be a regional superpower.

  Russia’s interest in the region was also becoming palpable. Israel had recently discovered one of the world’s largest natural gas fields in the Mediterranean west of Haifa—a find that held the potential to make Israel energy independent for decades. Russia was mildly interested in a joint venture to fund development of the field. What’s more, Russia was also interested again in the possibility of a joint effort to ship oil through the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline in Israel to the Far East. Navon knew it was only a matter of time before Russia reasserted economic and military interest in certain parts of the Middle East. They’d already committed to deepening and defending a port for Syria. Once Russia entered the picture, choices would be narrowed.

  It was also just a matter of time before the long Sunni hegemony ended in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, triggering political earthquakes that no one could predict at this time. What was certain, though, is that the turmoil would create opportunities for Israel’s enemies.

  Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria were all much stronger, and much more willing, to test Israel at every turn. The Palestinian Authority peace process had turned to a shambles and was nearing collapse.

  And the United States? Who could predict what it would do? True, the U.S. military occupation forces in Iraq had allowed the IAF to fly through its airspace, but it had offered little support beyond that. Navon had heard rumors from the United Nations and elsewhere that the U.S. was considering condemning Israel in the strongest possible terms for its use of tactical nuclear weapons in the bombing runs in Iran.

  For Navon, that would set an historic—and dangerous—precedent.

  The United States had always been Israel’s strongest, closest ally. With the U.S. no longer firmly by its side, Navon wasn’t sure where else to turn.

  For these and many other reasons, Navon was coming to a difficult realization. Israel was moving into a brave, new world—one in which it would either adapt or perish. Israel simply could not defeat all of its enemies indefinitely. Some would need to be turned into allies or, at the very least, neutralized and forced to the sidelines.

  Navon had yet to communicate any of this with the Knesset or his top aides, but a new path was beginning to emerge. Israel would need to make peace with certain neighbors and offer up something of real value to solidify a new peace. Otherwise, Navon believed, there might not be a viable future for Israel. At some point, Israel’s enemies would overwhelm her.

  Navon had to maneuver Israel toward peace. He had no choice.

  In fact, he was considering raising the issue for the first time at his weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem that Sunday. Navon glanced at the latest message on his desk, from the head of Israel’s permanent mission to the United Nations, Ambassador Isabella Jaffe. Her message was clear and blunt. The UN Security Council was about to make life extraordinarily difficult for Israel.

  Russia was about to bring news of Israel’s use of tactical nuclear weapons before the council, Jaffe had learned. What the Security Council would do with that information was anyone’s guess—but it couldn’t be good for Israel.

  Navon had addressed the Security Council within the past year in an effort to move them toward a condemnation of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. It hadn’t worked. The UN had remained intent on pursuing dip
lomatic solutions in Iran. Navon had short-circuited that process, and the Security Council was now looking for any excuse to condemn Israel for its unilateral actions. The only remaining question, in Navon’s mind, was how the U.S. would respond.

  Jaffe, though, said she had a thought—and an idea—she wanted to share with Navon. He returned her call.

  “Ambassador Jaffe. So…you have news for me?” Navon said once they were connected.

  “I do, Prime Minister. I believe we have an opportunity with the Russian ambassador here,” Jaffe answered. She’d been educated in the United States, with a doctorate from Princeton. Her immediate family was now in its third generation in Israel. But she still had deep roots in Russia, with other relatives still living in various parts of Russia. That connection helped her now.

  “I can’t imagine what that might be, given that they are about to bring up a condemnation for our strikes in Iran,” Navon said.

  “Yes, they do intend to pursue that,” Jaffe said. “But they might also be willing to bring up something else at the same time. And it could make matters, well…interesting.”

  Navon sat forward in his chair. “What is it?”

  “I’ve been told that the Russian ambassador might also be willing to bring up the Yugo suicide attack against the Abraham Lincoln in the Strait.”

  “You mean, make it public knowledge that it was a nuclear strike against an American ship?”

  “And that it was manufactured for Iran by North Korea.”

  Navon was silent for a moment. That would raise the stakes. It also might be an opportunity to shift the spotlight away from Israel and toward someone else. “Why would Russia do that?” he asked finally.

  “Honestly, I’m not sure, Prime Minister,” Jaffe answered. “They have their reasons. But we’d be guessing at this point.”

  Russia had been pursuing an interesting geopolitical strategy for years in an effort to build itself back up to superpower status. Chaos and misdirection had been a staple of Russian politics for years. This could be part of that strategy. But, right now, this clearly helped Israel. And for that, Navon was grateful.

  “No matter,” Navon said quickly. “If it helps shift the attention away from us, then, by all means, we need to support what Russia is doing.”

  “It will put the United States squarely into the middle of things,” Jaffe said. “We need to keep that in mind.”

  “They are already in the middle of things,” Navon countered. “It is their 5th Fleet that will determine whether the Strait is open soon—or not. They may not like it, but the Americans are now in this fight.”

  “Agreed. But it will complicate things.”

  “Which may be precisely what Russia is hoping for,” Navon said. “After all, they may see opportunity here that no one else is focused on just yet.”

  “So I have your permission to work with the Russians on their presentation to the Security Council?”

  “You do.”

  “Including some of our own intelligence information on how the North Koreans built the Yugos and armed some of them with nuclear weapons?” Jaffe asked. “I would like to present evidence of the ship we seized flying under the flag of Antigua, the one that contained clear parts for a self-contained nuclear weapon aboard a Yugo. It ties North Korea to Iran—and now, of course, to the attack on the U.S.”

  “Yes, by all means. Just take the usual precautions, and make sure you’ve cleared your material with the deputy head of Mossad.”

  “It is a clear violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1747,” Jaffe said. “We were going to present it anyway, but this seems like the best time for it.”

  “Yes, it makes sense,” he said. “Use your best judgment.”

  But Navon’s mind was already racing, moving to the next chess move on the board. With the Russian move, the next series of geopolitical moves would be led by the United States now. And it was difficult to know which way they would go.

  Navon needed options. Forces were encircling his country, and he desperately needed an escape route for his people.

  39

  NEW YORK CITY, NEW YORK

  Peter King couldn’t remember the last time he’d seen so many people collapse themselves into the room that held the rectangle table for the Security Council members and the semi-circular table surrounding it for observers and staff. There was a sea of people and a loud, permanent buzz in the room. Rumors swirled through the crowd of onlookers and observers.

  King had been forced to push his way through the crowd to get to his seat near the center of the rectangular table. He’d just finished conversations with President Camara, the White House chief of staff, Anshel Gould, and the new deputy national security advisor, Susan Wright.

  This would likely be the most difficult Security Council meeting for the United States in years. Not only was the Strait of Hormuz still closed, but, according to Dr. Wright, Iran was quietly threatening to take additional actions against non-military targets throughout the Gulf if the United States did not withdraw the 5th Fleet.

  King’s marching orders were clear. He was to do everything in his power to secure nine votes of support behind the continued presence of the 5th Fleet in the Strait. The world’s economy rested firmly on the 5th Fleet’s ability to reopen the Strait.

  But, King thought privately, at what cost? If Iran followed through on its threats and did, in fact, attack non-military targets in the Strait, it could move the world economy to the brink of collapse overnight.

  The price of oil could increase fivefold in forty-eight hours, crippling already fragile economies in some countries.

  Russia would not tolerate threats to the flow of oil. It would take unilateral actions in its own national interest to preserve its ability to secure oil for its own domestic economy. Other countries—including the United States—would make similar determinations in their own national interests. Worldwide economic chaos would ensue.

  No, there was really only one option, and King had to convince the Security Council of it. The 5th Fleet had to remain in place, and it had to open the Strait as quickly as it could. Everyone would just need to deal with the aftermath when, or if, it happened.

  Thank goodness the Abraham Lincoln was still afloat. Had Iran’s spectacular, asymmetrical attack succeeded in sending the Abe to the bottom of the ocean floor, things would be in a very different place today. But the Abe did not sink, thanks to the out-of-the-box, quick thinking of the vice admiral, Asher Truxton, who’d planted himself firmly on the deck of the Abe in the middle of the storm.

  The United States would need to tread carefully today at the Security Council meeting. King had a prepared statement in his coat pocket that contained remarks he knew would take the permanent UN Security Council members by surprise.

  But his orders here were clear as well. He would bring this particular card out only if necessary. King privately hoped that it wouldn’t come to it. He glanced across the room. He spotted the Israeli ambassador, Isabella Jaffe, and their eyes met briefly. King looked away quickly. He knew that Jaffe, and the Israeli leadership, would not think much of the statement he carried with him in his suit coat pocket.

  King stood off to the side and chatted amiably with several of the representatives of the new, rotating members to the Security Council from Brazil, Nigeria, and Bosnia. The Russian and Chinese ambassadors had not yet made their way to the table.

  The Chinese had been strangely silent during the chaos and turmoil of the past few days. It surprised King a little. But, at the same time, much of it was really not their fight. China had smartly positioned itself as a world leader in alternative energy in recent years, while also rapidly building many coal plants. China was moving away from an oil economy as fast as it could and was quickly approaching a point where it was not as dependent as Russia and the U.S. on the Middle Eastern oil reserves.

  Still, King knew, there were parts of all of this that were of immense importance to China. China was paying very close attention
to North Korea’s role in Iran’s ambitions for empire. After all, China was North Korea’s closest and most important ally. It was also, by far, its biggest trading partner and provided Pak Jong Il’s regime with arms, fuel, and food.

  North Korea’s recent nuclear tests had begun to sorely test the relationship, but China had still steadfastly suppressed any threat of international economic sanctions against North Korea. It would likely continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

  Russia, though, was another matter altogether. King was struggling to understand what Russia meant to do and where it hoped to emerge at the other end of this crisis in the Middle East. As usual, the Russian leadership was playing so many different angles it was difficult to tell whom it supported—or why.

  The visit that had most perplexed King was the one that Israel’s prime minister, Judah Navon, and his top national security advisors had undertaken recently. They’d met with the Russian prime minister and then lied about the visit to the Israeli press. The truth of that visit had never really been explained, either in public or in private.

  It was difficult to determine Russia’s true motives in many things, King knew. So, as he always did, he watched what it did—not what it said.

  And, King knew, Russia had quietly begun to mobilize troops on its southern borders with Georgia and Azerbaijan. That could only mean one thing—it meant to take advantage of the growing turmoil in the world oil economy and move on the Baku pipeline.

  There was no doubt that the Russian ambassador, Grigori Ulanov, would present the same information—evidence of Israel’s use of tactical nuclear weapons in Iran—at today’s Security Council meeting, as he had earlier in the day at the 1540 Committee. But King also suspected that Russia had more in mind and would whack the proverbial hornet’s nest more than just once.

  The Chinese ambassador—Dr. Zhao Kuan—made his way into the room. One of King’s aides said he’d been in almost constant consultation with Chinese Premier Li Chan, who had long ago mastered the art of using surrogates to do his bidding.