The World: A Brief Introduction

by Richard Haass

  nearly 1.4 billion inhabitants: World Bank Database, data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=CN.

  some 13,000 citizens: World Bank Database, data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=NR.

  world’s second-largest economy: See International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  more territorial disputes: M. Taylor Fravel, “Territorial and Maritime Boundary Disputes in Asia,” in Oxford Handbook of the International Relations in Asia, ed. Saadia M. Pekkanen, John Ravenhill, and Rosemary Foot (New York: Oxford University Press, 2014).

  one-third of global output: The region’s combined output (GDP) in 2018 was $25.6 trillion, which represents 30 percent of the world’s total of $84.7 trillion. See International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  Association of Southeast Asian Nations: The following are members of ASEAN: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

  forum for its twenty-one members: The following are members of APEC: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, United States, and Vietnam.

  population nearly twice that of the United States: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam had a combined population of 571 million in 2018, compared with a U.S. population of 327 million. See International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  combined GDP on par: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam had a combined GDP of $2.8 trillion in 2018, compared with France’s $2.78 trillion, India’s $2.72 trillion, and the United Kingdom’s $2.83 trillion. See International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  invaded South Korea: For a history of the Korean War, see Halberstam, Coldest Winter.

  met by Chinese “volunteers”: For the best account of how China made the decision to intervene militarily, see Chen Jian’s China’s Road to the Korean War: The Making of the Sino-American Confrontation (New York: Columbia University Press, 1994).

  some 37,000 American troops were killed: The official death toll is 36,574. DeBruyne, “American War and Military Operations Casualties,” 2.

  3.5 million Koreans were either killed or wounded: Westad, Cold War, 182.

  war in Vietnam: The best single-volume histories of the conflict are Karnow, Vietnam; and Logevall, Embers of War. Also worth reading are David Halberstam, The Best and the Brightest (New York: Ballantine Books, 1969); and Leslie H. Gelb and Richard K. Betts, The Irony of Vietnam: The System Worked (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1979). There is also fantastic literature worth reading, including Graham Greene, The Quiet American (New York: Penguin Classics, 1991); Tim O’Brien, The Things They Carried (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 1990); and Karl Marlantes, Matterhorn: A Novel of the Vietnam War (New York: Atlantic Monthly Press, 2010). Finally, it is worth investing the time to watch Ken Burns’s ten-part documentary on the Vietnam War, as well as Errol Morris’s Fog of War.

  Fifty-eight thousand American soldiers lost their lives: The official death toll is 58,220. DeBruyne, “American War and Military Operations Casualties,” 2.

  more than one million Vietnamese: Westad, Cold War, 331–32.

  The economic cost: Stephen Daggett, “Costs of Major U.S. Wars,” Congressional Research Service, June 29, 2010, 2.

  rose from forty-eight years in 1960: World Bank Database, data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=Z4.

  average annual economic growth of more than 6 percent: Michael Sarel, “Growth in East Asia: What We Can and What We Cannot Infer” (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 1996), 2.

  gross domestic product (GDP) per capita: World Bank Database, data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=Z4.

  investment in education: World Bank East Asia and Pacific Regional Report, “Growing Smarter: Learning and Equitable Development in East Asia and Pacific,” 2018.

  Japan evolved from a defeated: Dower, Embracing Defeat.

  It became a manufacturing powerhouse: The two classic works on Japan’s economic transformation are Hugh T. Patrick and Henry Rosovsky, eds., Asia’s New Giant: How the Japanese Economy Works (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1976); and Chalmers A. Johnson, MITI and the Japanese Miracle: The Growth of Industrial Policy, 1925–1975 (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1982).

  estimated thirty to fifty-five million deaths: Frank Dikötter has written the most authoritative history of the famine and estimates it resulted in at least forty-five million deaths. Frank Dikötter, Mao’s Great Famine: The History of China’s Most Devastating Catastrophe, 1958–1962 (London: Bloomsbury, 2010); Yang Jisheng, Tombstone: The Great Chinese Famine, 1958–1962 (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2012).

  ruining countless lives: Roderick MacFarquhar, Mao’s Last Revolution (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2006).

  balance these two relationships: For a book on Japan’s views of a rising China, see Sheila A. Smith, Intimate Rivals: Japanese Domestic Politics and a Rising China (New York: Columbia University Press, 2016). On Japanese strategic perspectives, see Kenneth Pyle, Japan Rising: The Resurgence of Japanese Power and Purpose (New York: PublicAffairs, 2007). For more on South Korean foreign policy, see Scott A. Snyder, South Korea at the Crossroads: Autonomy and Alliance in an Era of Rival Powers (New York: Columbia University Press, 2018).

  the United States would likely become involved: President Obama affirmed that the U.S.-Japan security treaty covers the Senkaku Islands, meaning that the United States would be obligated to come to Japan’s defense if China were to attack the Senkaku Islands. The White House Office of the Press Secretary, “Remarks by President Obama and Prime Minister Abe of Japan in Joint Press Conference,” April 28, 2015. President Trump has reiterated this commitment. White House, “Joint Statement from President Donald J. Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,” February 10, 2017.

  major cause of their 1962 war: John Garver, “India, China, the United States, Tibet, and the Origins of the 1962 War,” India Review 3, no. 2 (2004): 9–20.

  whether a peaceful settlement: This is an extremely complex issue, but two books worth reading are Richard C. Bush’s Unchartered Strait: The Future of China-Taiwan Relations (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2013) and Nancy Bernkopf Tucker’s Strait Talk: United States–Taiwan Relations and the Crisis with China (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2009).

  entering its fourth phase: I wrote about the four phases more extensively in a piece for The Wall Street Journal. Richard Haass, “The Crisis in U.S.-China Relations,” Wall Street Journal, October 19, 2018.

  The region is aging more rapidly: World Bank Group, “Live Long and Prosper: Aging in East Asia and Pacific” (2016), xv.

  South Asia

  South Asia consists of eight countries: The eight countries included in this region are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

  25 percent of the world’s population: About 1.82 billion people—or 24 percent of the world’s population of 7.59 billion—reside in this region. World Bank Database, data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL.

  under 4 percent of its landmass: World Bank Database, data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.SRF.TOTL.K2?display=graph.

  4 percent of its economy: These eight countries had a combined economic output (GDP) of $3.5 trillion in 2018, which is roughly 4 percent of the global total of $84.7 trillion. International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  three of the four countries: Pew Research Center, “The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010–2050,” April 2, 2015, 74.

&n
bsp; 80 percent of Indians are Hindu: Pew Research Center, “Future of World Religions,” 95.

  world’s least economically integrated region: Sanjay Kathuria, ed., “A Glass Half Full: The Promise of Regional Trade in South Asia” (Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group, 2018), 7–9.

  Some lump in the five countries: For instance, the U.S. Department of State has a Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs whose senior official oversees both South and Central Asia.

  Any discussion of South Asia: For a more in-depth discussion of India, see Stephen P. Cohen, India: Emerging Power (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2001); and Ramachandra Guha, India After Gandhi: The History of the World’s Largest Democracy, 2nd ed. (New York: Ecco, 2019). For more on Indian foreign policy, see Alyssa Ayres, Our Time Has Come: How India Is Making Its Place in the World (New York: Oxford University Press, 2018).

  around 7 percent annually: According to the IMF, India’s economy grew by 7.4 percent in 2014, 8 percent in 2015, 8.2 percent in 2016, 7.2 percent in 2017, and 7 percent in 2018. International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  only about one-fifth the size of China’s: In 2018, China’s GDP stood at $13.4 trillion, five times India’s $2.7 trillion. International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  started from a similar base: In 1969, India’s GDP stood at $58.4 billion, compared with China’s $79.7 billion. In 1978, at the beginning of China’s program of economic reform, India’s economy was $137.3 billion, compared with China’s $149.5 billion. World Bank Database, data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=1979&locations=IN-CN&start=1960.

  held back by corruption: “Fighting Corruption in India: A Bad Boom,” Economist, March 15, 2014.

  poor infrastructure: Sheoli Pargal and Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee, More Power to India: The Challenge of Electricity Distribution (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2014).

  complex political and legal bureaucracies: “The Constant Tinkerer: Narendra Modi Is a Fine Administrator, but Not Much of a Reformer,” Economist, June 24, 2017.

  GDP per capita is only around $2,000: The IMF reported India’s GDP per capita at $2,036 in 2018, putting it at number 147 in the world, lower than Nigeria, São Tomé and Príncipe, Djibouti, Nicaragua, and Ghana. International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  Life expectancy has more than doubled: Preetika Rana and Joanna Sugden, “India’s Record Since Independence,” Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2013.

  Literacy has more than quadrupled: Rana and Sugden, “India’s Record Since Independence.”

  India has made remarkable strides: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Promoting Strong and Inclusive Growth in India,” 2017.

  200 million Indians: The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that 19 percent of India’s population (240 million people) lacked basic access to electricity in 2013. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Country Analysis Brief: India,” June 14, 2016, 2.

  lack access to basic sanitation or toilets: WaterAid, “Out of Order: The State of the World’s Toilets 2017,” 9. In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged that all Indians would have sanitation coverage by October 2019, and as part of that he launched a $20 billion toilet-building campaign. P. R. Sanjai, “World’s Biggest Toilet-Building Spree Is Under Way in India,” Bloomberg, July 30, 2018.

  emerged as a major political force: Ashutosh Varshney, “India’s Democracy at 70: Growth, Inequality, and Nationalism,” Journal of Democracy 28, no. 3 (July 2017): 41–51; Christophe Jaffrelot, “India’s Democracy at 70: Toward a Hindu State?,” Journal of Democracy 28, no. 3 (July 2017): 52–63; Eswaran Sridharan, “India’s Democracy at 70: The Shifting Party Balance,” Journal of Democracy 28, no. 3 (July 2017): 76–85.

  Pakistan, whose name: For those interested in delving deeper into Pakistan’s economic and political development, see Anatol Lieven, Pakistan: A Hard Country (New York: PublicAffairs, 2011); Omar Noman, Pakistan: A Political and Economic History Since 1947 (London: Kegan Paul, 1990); Stephen P. Cohen, The Idea of Pakistan (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2004); and Ian Talbot, Pakistan: A New History, rev. ed. (London: Oxford University Press, 2015).

  barely more than one-tenth that of India’s: In 2018, Pakistan had a GDP of $312.6 billion, compared with India’s $2.717 trillion, making India’s economy roughly nine times the size of Pakistan’s. International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  just over $1,500: The IMF reported that Pakistan’s GDP per capita stood at $1,555 in 2018. International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  Real power is held: C. Christine Fair, “Why the Pakistan Army Is Here to Stay: Prospects for Civil Governance,” International Affairs 87, no. 3 (May 2011): 571–88; Cohen, Idea of Pakistan; Husain Haqqani, Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment, 2005).

  exports of ready-made garments: Refayet Ullah Mirdha, “Bangladesh Remains the Second Biggest Apparel Exporter,” Daily Star (Bangladesh), August 2, 2018.

  U.S. trade with Bangladesh: U.S. Census Bureau, “U.S. Trade in Goods and Services: Annual Revision,” June 6, 2019.

  Bangladesh has suffered from dysfunctional: For more on Bangladesh, see Ali Riaz, Bangladesh: A Political History Since Independence (London: I. B. Tauris, 2016).

  The modern history of the region: The best books on the region’s modern history are John Keay, India: A History: From the Earliest Civilisations to the Boom of the Twenty-first Century, 2nd ed. (London: HarperPress, 2010); Ian Talbot, A History of Modern South Asia: Politics, States, Diasporas (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2016); and Sugata Bose and Ayesha Jalal, Modern South Asia: History, Culture, Political Economy, 4th ed. (London: Routledge, 2018).

  one million lives: Yasmin Khan, The Great Partition: The Making of India and Pakistan, 2nd ed. (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2017). Other notable works on partition include Patrick French, Liberty or Death: India’s Journey to Independence and Division (London: HarperCollins, 1997); and Nisid Hajari, Midnight’s Furies: The Deadly Legacy of India’s Partition (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2015).

  did not bring stability: On the India-Pakistan conflict, I recommend reading Myra MacDonald, Defeat Is an Orphan: How Pakistan Lost the Great South Asian War (London: Hurst, 2016).

  Kashmir was at the center: For more on this conflict, see Stephen P. Cohen, “India, Pakistan, and Kashmir,” Journal of Strategic Studies 25, no. 4 (2002): 32–60; International Crisis Group, “Steps Towards Peace: Putting Kashmiris First,” June 3, 2010.

  the 1971 conflict: For more on this war and the creation of Bangladesh, see Warren Bass, The Blood Telegram: Nixon, Kissinger, and a Forgotten Genocide (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2013), and Philip Oldenburg, “‘A Place Insufficiently Imagined’: Language, Belief, and the Pakistan Crisis of 1971,” Journal of Asian Studies 44, no. 4 (August 1985): 711–33.

  one of the largest recipients: Herring, From Colony to Superpower, 713.

  India first tested a nuclear device: For more on India’s nuclear program, see George Perkovich, India’s Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1999).

  world’s fastest-growing nuclear arsenal: Gregory D. Koblentz, Strategic Stability in the Second Nuclear Age (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2014), 14–18.

  Afghanistan has had its own: For more on Afghanistan, see Ahmed Rashid, Descent into Chaos: The U.S. and the Disaster in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia (New York: Viking, 2008); and Ahmed Rashid, Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan (New York: Viking, 2012). To better understand this period of history leading up to the September 11, 2001, attacks, see Steve Coll, Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and bin Laden, from
the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001 (New York: Penguin Books, 2004).

  building stronger relationships with India: As evidenced by the U.S. Department of Defense’s “Indo-Pacific Strategy Report” released on June 1, 2019, as well as the renaming of the U.S. Pacific Command to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

  world’s fourth-largest military budget: In 2018, India’s military budget stood at $66.5 billion, placing it fourth in the world behind Saudi Arabia ($67.6 billion), China ($250 billion), and the United States ($649 billion). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, “SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, 1949–2018.”

  The Middle East

  The Middle East: For this chapter, the following countries are included in the region: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestinian territories, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.

  around 450 million: The World Bank recorded the combined population of the countries included in this region as 449 million in 2018. World Bank Database, data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=ZQ.

  around $3.5 trillion: International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  overwhelmingly dependent on revenues: According to the World Bank, “At about 14 percent, MENA [Middle East and North Africa] has the world’s lowest share of nonoil manufactured exports and the highest share of fuel exports—between 60 and 80 percent.” World Bank Group, “MENA Economic Monitor: Economic Transformation” (April 2018), 11.

  more than half of total: According to the World Bank, in the Middle East and North Africa fuel exports account for over 56 percent of merchandise exports, compared with a global average of under 12 percent. World Bank Database, data.worldbank.org/indicator/TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN?locations=ZQ-1W&view=chart.

  education they receive is poor: United Nations Development Programme, “Arab Human Development Report 2016: Youth and the Prospects for Human Development in a Changing Reality,” 74–85.