The World: A Brief Introduction

by Richard Haass

  youth unemployment is far above: According to the United Nations Development Programme, “High youth unemployment rates are one of the most distinctive features of Arab labour markets. They have been nearly twice as high as the rates in other global regions since the early 1990s. . . . [Y]outh unemployment will keep rising, reaching 29.1 percent in the Middle East and 30.7 percent in North Africa by 2019, whereas the peak rate in other world regions will not exceed 18 percent.” United Nations Development Programme, “Arab Human Development Report 2016: Youth and the Prospects for Human Development in a Changing Reality,” 80.

  participation by girls and women: According to the OECD, “Despite improvements in women’s education, female labor force participation remains very low—only 22%, compared to more than 50% in OECD countries.” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, The Pursuit of Gender Equality: An Uphill Battle (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2017), 238.

  to one degree or another autocratic: According to Freedom House, only 5 percent of the population in the Middle East and North Africa lives in countries categorized as “free” (those who live in Israel or Tunisia), while 12 percent live in “partly free” countries and the remaining 83 percent live in “not free” countries. Only two of the region’s eighteen countries are categorized as “free” by Freedom House, with the organization categorizing twelve as “not free” and four as “partly free.” Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2018: Democracy in Crisis, 16–17.

  ruled by hereditary monarchies: Eight of the world’s ten remaining ruling monarchies are in the region: Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

  conjecture and controversy: Bernard Lewis, Islam and the West (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994); Edward W. Said, Orientalism (New York: Pantheon Books, 1978).

  world’s proven oil reserves: The region accounts for 51.4 percent of the world’s total proved oil reserves, 37.5 percent of the world’s total oil production, and 44.7 percent of the world’s total proved natural gas reserves. British Petroleum, “Statistical Review of World Energy” (2018).

  almost half of all terrorist attacks: According to the United Nations Development Programme, “In 2014 alone, the region accounted for almost 45 percent of all terrorist attacks worldwide.” United Nations Development Programme, “Arab Human Development Report 2016: Youth and the Prospects for Human Development in a Changing Reality,” 174.

  Israel-Palestinian conflict: For good introductions to the Israel-Palestinian conflict, I recommend Ari Shavit’s memoir My Promised Land: The Triumph and Tragedy of Israel (New York: Spiegel & Grau, 2013) as well as Thomas Friedman’s From Beirut to Jerusalem (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1989) and David K. Shipler’s, Arab and Jew: Wounded Spirits in a Promised Land (New York: Broadway Books, 2015).

  decline of the Ottoman Empire: For those interested in the Ottoman Empire, I recommend Bernard Lewis, The Emergence of Modern Turkey, 3rd ed. (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002); and Feroz Ahmad, The Making of Modern Turkey (London: Routledge, 1993).

  1967 war between Israel and its Arab neighbors: For a history of the Six-Day War, see Michael Oren, Six Days of War: June 1967 and the Making of the Modern Middle East (New York: Presidio Press, 2003).

  undertaking in Oslo: The 1993 Oslo I Accord can be found at ecf.org.il/issues/issue/184. The 1995 Oslo II Accord can be found at ecf.org.il/media_items/624.

  helped to overthrow: Stephen Kinzer, All the Shah’s Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror (Hoboken, N.J.: John Wiley & Sons, 2003). For a revisionist take on this episode, see Ray Takeyh, “What Really Happened in Iran: The CIA, the Ouster of Mosaddeq, and the Restoration of the Shah,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2014.

  a revolution overthrew the Shah: For more on the Iranian revolution, see James Buchan, Days of God: The Revolution in Iran and Its Consequences (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012).

  instituted a unique theocratic system: For more on contemporary Iranian politics, see Ray Takeyh, Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009).

  claimed nearly one million lives: Westad, Cold War, 565.

  military action and liberated Kuwait: For more on the Gulf War, see Rick Atkinson, Crusade: The Untold Story of the Persian Gulf War (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 1993); and Michael R. Gordon, The Generals’ War: The Inside Story of the Conflict in the Gulf (New York: Little, Brown, 1995).

  There are many analyses: Haass, War of Necessity, War of Choice; Michael J. Mazarr, Leap of Faith: Hubris, Negligence, and America’s Greatest Foreign Policy Tragedy (New York: PublicAffairs, 2019).

  a conflict that proved expensive: On the Iraq War and the war in Afghanistan, see Dexter Filkins, The Forever War (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2008).

  “war of choice that was ill-advised”: Haass, War of Necessity, War of Choice, 278.

  Dubbed the Arab Spring: For more on these protests and the democracy movements, see Steven A. Cook, False Dawn: Protest, Democracy, and Violence in the New Middle East (New York: Oxford University Press, 2017).

  Some 500,000 Syrians have lost their lives: Megan Specia, “How Syria’s Death Toll Is Lost in the Fog of War,” New York Times, April 13, 2018.

  Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: The full text of the agreement can be found at 2009-2017.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/iran/jcpoa/.

  Africa

  forty-nine countries: For the purposes of this chapter, the following countries are grouped together as “Africa” or more precisely “sub-Saharan Africa”: Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Republic of the Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, São Tomé and Príncipe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

  Africa south of the Sahara: For broader treatments of this region, see Richard Dowden, Africa: Altered States, Ordinary Miracles (New York: PublicAffairs, 2009); S. N. Sangmpam, Ethnicities and Tribes in Sub-Saharan Africa: Opening Old Wounds (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017); and Jean-François Bayart, The State in Africa: The Politics of the Belly, 2nd ed. (New York: Polity, 2009).

  before the Europeans arrived: For more on precolonial African history, see Cheikh Anta Diop, Precolonial Black Africa (New York: Lawrence Hill Books, 1987).

  ruinous eight-year war: Martin Evans, Algeria: France’s Undeclared War (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012).

  establishing good governance: Crawford Young, The Postcolonial State in Africa: Fifty Years of Independence, 1960–2010 (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 2012).

  apartheid, or separateness: For more on the apartheid era, see Nancy L. Clark and William H. Worger, South Africa: The Rise and Fall of Apartheid, 3rd ed. (New York: Routledge, 2016); Allister Sparks, The Mind of South Africa (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1990); and Joseph Lelyveld, Move Your Shadow: South Africa, Black and White (New York: Penguin Books, 1986). I also recommend reading Alan Paton’s Cry, the Beloved Country (New York: Scribner, 1948), a novel that can teach just as much as a history book.

  political and military movements: For more on the struggle against apartheid, see Stephen R. Davis, The ANC’s War Against Apartheid: Umkhonto we Sizwe and the Liberation of South Africa (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2018).

  Nelson Mandela, an anti-apartheid activist: I recommend Mandela’s autobiography, Long Walk to Freedom, for an account of this period of South African history. Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom: The Autobiography of Nelson Mandela (Boston: Back Bay Books, 1995).

  I wrote about ripeness: Richard N. Haass, Conflicts Unending: The United State
s and Regional Disputes (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1990).

  only a few percent of the world total: The region’s combined output (GDP) in 2018 was $1.58 trillion, which represents 1.9 percent of the world’s total of $84.7 trillion. See International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  absolute number of Africans: The World Bank estimates that the share of the African population in extreme poverty declined from 57 percent in 1990 to 43 percent in 2012. At the same time, the World Bank estimates that from 1990 to 2012 the number of people living in extreme poverty in Africa increased by more than 100 million. Kathleen Beegle et al., “Poverty in a Rising Africa” (Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group, 2016), xi.

  400 million people: According to the World Bank, in 2012, 389 million Africans lived on less than $1.90 a day. Beegle et al., “Poverty in a Rising Africa,” 4.

  Half of the people: According to the World Bank, almost 600 million of the 1.1 billion people in the world who do not have access to electricity are in sub-Saharan Africa. World Bank Group, Africa’s Pulse 17 (April 2018): 59.

  Tax collection tends to be minimal: McKinsey Global Institute, “Lions on the Move II: Realizing the Potential of Africa’s Economies” (September 2016), 103–12.

  corruption tends to be extensive: Thomas Isbell, “Efficacy for Fighting Corruption: Evidence from 36 African Countries,” Afrobarometer Policy Paper No. 41, July 2017.

  Literacy has improved: Beegle et al., “Poverty in a Rising Africa,” 86–88.

  Intra-African trade is negligible: According to a recent report, intra-African exports were 16.6 percent of total exports in 2017, compared with 68.1 percent in Europe, 59.4 percent in Asia, and 55.0 percent in the Americas. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Economic Development in Africa Report 2019 (Geneva: United Nations, 2019), 19.

  Exports are largely primary commodities: Mineral products (petroleum, ores, and so on) account for 50 percent of total exports from Africa to the rest of the world, while exports of manufactured goods account for only 20 percent. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Economic Development in Africa Report 2019, 23.

  Infrastructure is inadequate: According to one recent report, “Africa currently has fewer kilometers of roads than it did 30 years ago and has the highest costs of transporting goods in the world.” United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Economic Development in Africa Report 2019, 6.

  rank among the top one hundred: McKinsey Global Institute, “Global Flows in a Digital Age: How Trade, Finance, People, and Data Connect the World Economy,” April 2014.

  Given visa requirements: Africans need visas to travel to over half of the countries within the continent. McKinsey Global Institute, “Lions on the Move II,” 123.

  now over sixty years: The World Bank reports that life expectancy in sub-Saharan Africa is 60.8 years. World Bank Database, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=ZG.

  Infant and maternal mortality rates: Beegle et al., “Poverty in a Rising Africa,” 91–92. According to the World Bank, the maternal mortality ratio in sub-Saharan Africa declined from 987 (per 100,000 live births) in 1990 to 547 in 2015. World Bank Database, data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.STA.MMRT?locations=ZG. Similarly, the infant mortality rate in sub-Saharan Africa declined from 108 (per 1,000 live births) in 1990 to 52 in 2017. World Bank Database, data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?loca tions=ZG.

  largely been brought under control: Beegle et al., “Poverty in a Rising Africa,” 91–93.

  noninfectious, noncommunicable diseases: Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. and Thomas E. Donilon, The Emerging Global Health Crisis: Noncommunicable Diseases in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2014).

  It is also the youngest: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, “World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights” (2019).

  predicted to double again: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, “World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights.”

  becoming more urbanized: Somik Vinay Lall et al., Africa’s Cities: Opening Doors to the World (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2017).

  Democracy is gaining ground: For a comprehensive account of democracy on the continent, see Nic Cheeseman, Democracy in Africa: Successes, Failures, and the Struggle for Political Reform (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015).

  More than half of all Africans: Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2018: Democracy in Crisis, 17–19.

  Still, it is premature: “The March of Democracy Slows,” Economist, August 20, 2016; Larry Diamond, “Facing Up to the Democratic Recession,” Journal of Democracy 26, no. 1 (2015): 141–55.

  as many as 800,000 lives: United Nations, “Report of the Independent Inquiry into the Actions of the United Nations During the 1994 Genocide in Rwanda,” December 15, 1999, 3, www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/POC%20S19991257.pdf.

  more than one-fifth of Africa’s population: Nigeria has a population of 196 million, and South Africa has one of 58 million. Combined, these two countries hold 23.6 percent of the region’s 1.078 billion people. World Bank Database, data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=ZG-NG-ZA.

  more than 45 percent of its economic output: According to the IMF, South Africa’s GDP stood at $368 billion in 2018, while Nigeria’s was $397 billion. Combined, the two economies accounted for 46.6 percent of total economic output in sub-Saharan Africa, which was reported to be $1.643 trillion. See International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  postapartheid South Africa: For more on postapartheid South Africa, see John Campbell, Morning in South Africa (Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, 2016).

  Nigeria was a British colony: For more on Nigeria, see John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink, updated ed. (Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, 2013); John Campbell and Matthew T. Page, Nigeria: What Everyone Needs to Know (New York: Oxford University Press, 2018); and Stephen Ellis, This Present Darkness: A History of Nigerian Organized Crime (New York: Oxford University Press, 2016).

  The Americas

  includes thirty-eight countries: For the purposes of this chapter, the following countries are included in the Americas: Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Aruba, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Curacao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, the United States, Uruguay, and Venezuela.

  three-quarters of its economic output: The IMF reported the United States had a GDP of $20.49 trillion in 2018, while the other countries in the region had a combined GDP of $6.96 trillion. Thus, the United States accounted for 75 percent of the region’s total economic output. International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  three of the top ten countries: British Petroleum, “Statistical Review of World Energy” (2018).

  China appears intent: A great resource to delve into China’s investments in the region is the Dialogue’s China–Latin America Finance Database, which can be accessed at www.thedialogue.org/map_list/.

  outcome of the Falklands War: For more on this conflict, see Lawrence D. Freedman, “Reconsiderations: The War of the Falkland Islands, 1982,” Foreign Affairs (Fall 1982).

  its share of challenges: One book to read to get a sense of the challenges facing the region is Michael Reid’s Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America’s Soul (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2009).

  Oil production is down: According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in April 2019 Venezuela’s crude oil production dropped to its lowe
st level since January 2003, when a nationwide strike brought operations at its state-owned oil company to a halt. U.S. EIA, “Venezuelan Crude Oil Production Falls to Lowest Level Since January 2003,” May 20, 2019.

  Hyperinflation rages: The IMF reports Venezuela’s inflation rate stands at 10,000,000 percent. International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019).

  Tens of thousands of people: According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, four million Venezuelans have fled the country. In the seven months since November 2018, one million additional Venezuelans fled the country. UNHCR, “Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela Top 4 Million.”

  great strain on its neighbors: According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Colombia is hosting some 1.3 million Venezuelan refugees. UNHCR, “Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela Top 4 Million.”

  Argentina has struggled: Luigi Manzetti, “Accountability and Corruption in Argentina During the Kirchners’ Era,” Latin America Research Review 49, no. 2 (2014): 173–95.

  Murder rates in these countries: International Crisis Group, “Mafia of the Poor: Gang Violence and Extortion in Central America,” April 6, 2017.

  causes people to flee: According to a recent report, “security concerns play a central role in individual motivation to migrate,” and nearly 30 percent of adults in the Northern Triangle have considered migrating in the last year specifically due to insecurity. Ben Raderstorf et al., “Beneath the Violence: How Insecurity Shapes Daily Life and Emigration in Central America,” Dialogue, October 2017, 8.

  PART III: THE GLOBAL ERA

  Globalization

  Globalization—the emergence: For a defense of globalization, see Martin Wolf, Why Globalization Works (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2004); and Jagdish Bhagwati, In Defense of Globalization (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007). For a more skeptical view, see Joseph Stiglitz, Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-globalization in the Era of Trump (New York: W. W. Norton, 2018).