The World: A Brief Introduction

by Richard Haass

  more than 1.5 billion departures: World Bank Database, data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.DPRT.

  between twenty-five and thirty million refugees: According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of June 2019 there were 25.9 million refugees worldwide. See www.unhcr.org/en-us/figures-at-a-glance.html.

  top $1 trillion a year: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “OECD International Direct Investment Statistics 2018” (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2019).

  Trade in goods is valued: World Trade Organization, World Trade Statistical Review 2019, 8.

  seven times what it was: The World Trade Organization estimates that total merchandise trade stood at $2.5 trillion in 1987 and $2.9 trillion in 1988, roughly one-seventh of the current level. See timeseries.wto.org.

  one hundred times what it was fifty years ago: The World Trade Organization estimates that total merchandise trade stood at $218 billion in 1967 and $242 billion in 1968, roughly one-eightieth of the current level. See timeseries.wto.org.

  less than 5 percent of the world’s people: The United States has a population of roughly 330 million people, which represents around 4.3 percent of the global population of 7.6 billion.

  Terrorism and Counterterrorism

  Terrorism is best defined: For those interested in learning more about terrorism, the standard work on this subject is Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism, 3rd ed. (New York: Columbia University Press, 2017).

  Provisional Irish Republican Army: For those interested in terrorism in Northern Ireland, see Richard English, Armed Struggle: The History of the IRA (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003).

  Palestine Liberation Organization: For those interested in the Palestinian use of terrorism, see Barry Rubin, Revolution Until Victory? The Politics and History of the PLO (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1996).

  The most recent wave of international terrorism: There is an extensive literature on al-Qaeda and ISIS, but a few books I would recommend are Wright, Looming Tower; Daniel Byman, Al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and the Global Jihadist Movement: What Everyone Needs to Know (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015); and Joby Warrick, Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS (New York: Anchor Books, 2016).

  nearly twenty thousand people: The University of Maryland maintains the Global Terrorism Database, which tracks terrorist events around the world beginning in 1970 and includes information on more than 180,000 attacks. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), Global Terrorism Database, www.start.umd.edu/gtd.

  more than twenty-six thousand: Erin Miller, “Global Terrorism in 2017” (College Park, Md.: START, 2018), www.start.umd.edu/pubs/START_GTD_Overview2017_July2018.pdf.

  Most terrorists are to be found: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, Global Terrorism Database, www.start.umd.edu/gtd.

  Efforts to frustrate terrorists: For more on the tools of counterterrorism and U.S. counterterrorism policy, see Paul R. Pillar, Terrorism and U.S. Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2001); and Peter L. Bergen, The Longest War: The Enduring Conflict Between America and Al-Qaeda (New York: Free Press, 2011).

  Nuclear Proliferation

  Some prominent scholars: The most famous proponent of this view is Kenneth Waltz, who argued that if more countries had nuclear weapons, the world would be more stable, because countries would not attack each other and risk nuclear retaliation. Waltz wrote, “I have found many reasons for believing that with more nuclear states the world will have a promising future.” Kenneth Waltz, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Better,” Adelphi Papers, no. 171 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1981). For a debate on this proposition, see Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate (New York: W. W. Norton, 1995).

  cannot be deterred: Such scholars often invoke historical precedents such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, when Fidel Castro urged the Soviet Union to attack the United States with nuclear weapons, accepting the fact that Cuba would be destroyed but willing to pay that price in order to further Communism. James G. Blight and Janet M. Lang, “How Castro Held the World Hostage,” New York Times, October 25, 2012. Mao Zedong is reported to have told the Indian prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, “If the worst came to the worst [nuclear war] and half of mankind died, the other half would remain while imperialism would be razed to the ground and the whole world would become socialist.” For Mao, nuclear war would quicken the transition to socialism. Margaret MacMillan, Nixon and Mao: The Week That Changed the World (New York: Random House, 2007), 132.

  The NPT requires: Article I of the NPT states, “Each nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty undertakes not to transfer to any recipient whatsoever nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices or control over such weapons or explosive devices directly, or indirectly; and not in any way to assist, encourage, or induce any non-nuclear-weapon State to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices, or control over such weapons or explosive devices.” NPT text is available at www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/text/.

  sets forth the principle: Article VI of the NPT states, “Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.”

  States have used cyberattacks: Most famously, the United States and Israel employed cyberattacks to slow Iran’s nuclear weapons program. David E. Sanger, Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (New York: Crown, 2012), 141–225.

  1994 Budapest Memorandum: The memorandum states, “The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.” Full text available at www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_1994_1399.pdf.

  trying to establish deterrence: There is an entire subfield on deterrence theory and nuclear strategy, but the best one-volume study is Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, 3rd ed. (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003).

  John F. Kennedy predicted: In 1960, during the third presidential debate between candidates John F. Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon, Kennedy stated, “There are indications, because of new inventions, that ten, fifteen, or twenty nations will have a nuclear capacity—including Red China—by the end of the presidential office in 1964.” Commission on Presidential Debates, “October 13, 1960 Debate Transcript,” https://www.debates.org/voter-education/debate-transcripts/october-13-1960-debate-transcript/.

  Climate Change

  Global climate change: For those interested in learning more about climate change, a good start is Elizabeth Kolbert, Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate Change (New York: Bloomsbury, 2015). For more on the science behind climate change, see Jeffrey Bennett, A Global Warming Primer: Answering Your Questions About Science, the Consequences, and the Solutions (Boulder, Colo.: Big Kid Science, 2016).

  measures of average air temperature: Since 1901, the planet’s surface has warmed at an average of 0.7–0.9 degree Celsius per century, but this rate of change has nearly doubled since 1975 to 1.5–1.8 degrees Celsius per century. Jessica Blunden, Derek S. Arndt, and Gail Hartfield, eds., “State of the Climate in 2017,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 99, no. 8 (2018): 12.

  average temperature of the world’s oceans: A recent study found that oceans are heating up 40 percent faster than a United Nations panel estimated five
years ago. Kendra Pierre-Louis, “Ocean Warming Is Accelerating Faster Than Thought, New Research Finds,” New York Times, January 10, 2019.

  polar ice is melting away: John Schwartz and Henry Fountain, “Warming in Arctic Raises Fears of a ‘Rapid Unraveling’ of the Region,” New York Times, December 11, 2018.

  rising sea levels: In 2017, the average sea level was three inches above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993–present). It was the sixth consecutive year, and the twenty-second out of the last twenty-four years in which the average sea level increased relative to the previous year. Rebecca Lindsey, “Climate Change: Global Sea Level,” Climate.gov, August 1, 2018.

  increase in the concentrations: For instance, carbon dioxide levels today are higher than at any point in at least the past 800,000 years, and this rise is due to the fossil fuels that people burn for energy. Rebecca Lindsey, “Climate Change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,” Climate.gov, August 1, 2018.

  the second decade: Henry Fountain and Nadja Popovich, “2019 Was the Second-Hottest Year Ever, Closing Out the Warmest Decade,” New York Times, January 15, 2020.

  has been accelerating: Lindsey, “Climate Change: Global Sea Level.”

  Rising sea levels and flooding: Amy M. Jaffe, “UN Climate Report Highlights Extreme Risk to Many Regions,” cfr.org, October 12, 2018.

  areas of countries become uninhabitable: For this view, in a highly readable form, see David Wallace-Wells, The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming (New York: Tim Duggan Books, 2019).

  Bangladesh may well be the first: A rise in temperatures above 1.5 degrees Celsius could mean that by mid-century more than fifty million people in Bangladesh will have to flee their country. Amy M. Jaffe, “UN Climate Report Highlights Extreme Risk to Many Regions.”

  food and water shortages: Christopher Flavelle, “Climate Change Threatens the World’s Food Supply, United Nations Warns,” New York Times, August 8, 2019. A summary of the UN report can be found at www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/08/4.-SPM_Approved_Microsite_FINAL.pdf.

  national security issue as well: In his 2015 National Security Strategy (NSS), President Barack Obama listed climate change as a top strategic risk to U.S. interests. The NSS noted, “Climate change is an urgent and growing threat to our national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources like food and water.” President Barack Obama, “National Security Strategy of the United States of America,” February 2015, obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2015_national_security_strategy_2.pdf.

  consumption has nearly tripled: British Petroleum, “BP Energy Outlook: 2019 Edition,” 79.

  China and India in particular: British Petroleum, “BP Energy Outlook: 2019 Edition,” 67.

  Much of the use: British Petroleum, “BP Energy Outlook: 2019 Edition,” 29.

  Oil generates roughly one-third: British Petroleum, “BP Energy Outlook: 2019 Edition,” 79.

  Deforestation is a significant cause: Frances Seymour, “Deforestation Is Accelerating, Despite Mounting Efforts to Protect Tropical Forests. What Are We Doing Wrong?,” World Resources Institute, June 26, 2018, www.wri.org/blog/2018/06/deforestation-accelerating-despite-mounting-efforts-protect-tropical-forests.

  responsible for a good deal of: Estimates differ, but recognition of the problem of deforestation is widely shared. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007—Mitigation of Climate Change: Working Group III Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007).

  widely accepted by scientists: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels contains references to twenty-five hundred scientific reviews and represents something of a consensus. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Global Warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C Above Pre-industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty (Geneva: World Meteorological Organization, 2018). The full report can be accessed at www.ipcc.ch/sr15/.

  small minority questions: The retired MIT professor Richard Lindzen, for instance, is an outspoken climate change skeptic who wrote an open letter to President Donald Trump in 2017 arguing, “Since 2009, the US and other governments have undertaken actions with respect to global climate that are not scientifically justified.” Zahra Hirji, “Climate Contrarian Gets Fact-Checked by MIT Colleagues in Open Letter to Trump,” Inside Climate News, March 6, 2017.

  fastest growing among all fuels: British Petroleum, “BP Energy Outlook: 2019 Edition,” 15.

  one-third of the 1.0 degree Celsius increase: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), “CO2 emitted from coal combustion was responsible for over 0.3°C of the 1°C increase in global average annual surface temperatures above pre-industrial levels. This makes coal the single largest source of global temperature increase.” IEA, “Global Energy & CO2 Status Report: The Latest Trends in Energy and Emissions in 2018,” www.iea.org/reports/2018-global-status-report.

  China now accounts for about half: British Petroleum, “BP Energy Outlook: 2019 Edition,” 103.

  energy use in 2040: British Petroleum, “BP Energy Outlook: 2019 Edition,” 79.

  Such steps, termed adaptation: For more on adaptation strategies, see Alice C. Hill and Leonardo Martinez-Diaz, Building a Resilient Tomorrow (New York: Oxford University Press, 2019).

  Such actions (termed geo-engineering): For more on geo-engineering, see Oliver Morton, The Planet Remade: How Geoengineering Could Change the World (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2016).

  1978 international convention: This is formally known as the Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques. The full text can be found at treaties.un.org/doc/Treaties/1978/10/19781005%2000-39%20AM/Ch_XXVI_01p.pdf.

  Migration

  defines a migrant: United Nations International Organization for Migration, “Who is a Migrant?,” https://www.iom.int/who-is-a-migrant.

  “who live temporarily or permanently”: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, “Information Kit: United Nations Convention on Migrants’ Rights” (2005), unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000143557.

  some 250 million international migrants: According to the UN, “The number of international migrants worldwide has continued to grow rapidly in recent years, reaching 258 million in 2017, up from 220 million in 2010 and 173 million in 2000.” United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, International Migration Report 2017: Highlights, www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/migrationreport/docs/MigrationReport2017_Highlights.pdf.

  The vast majority: By the end of 2016, there were 25.9 million refugees and asylum seekers in the world, equivalent to 10.1 percent of all international migrants. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, International Migration Report 2017: Highlights, 7.

  They tend to settle in countries: High-income countries host almost two-thirds of all international migrants and have absorbed 64 million of the 85 million migrants added worldwide between 2000 and 2017. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, International Migration Report 2017: Highlights, 4.

  just under 50 million immigrants: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, International Migration Report 2017: Highlights, 6.

  71 million people: According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of June 2019 there were 70.8 million forcibly displaced persons worldwide. See www.unhcr.org/en-us/figures-at-a-glance.html.

  26 m
illion are refugees: Of the 25.9 million refugees, 5.5 million are categorized as Palestinian refugees, while the remaining 20.4 million refugees come from other parts of the world. See www.unhcr.org/en-us/figures-at-a-glance.html.

  The United States: For those interested in the history of U.S. immigration policy, see Daniel J. Tichenor, Dividing Lines: The Politics of Immigration Control in America (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2002); and Susan F. Martin, A Nation of Immigrants (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011).

  more immigrants than any other country: The United States hosts 50 million migrants, equal to 19 percent of the world’s total and more than any other country. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, International Migration Report 2017: Highlights, 6.

  one million people obtain permanent resident status: The United States granted lawful permanent resident status to 1.13 million people in 2017 (578,000 were new arrivals, and 549,000 were the result of an adjustment in status), 1.18 million in 2016, and 1.05 million in 2015. From 2001 to 2017, at least 1 million people obtained lawful permanent resident status in the United States each year for fourteen out of the seventeen years. U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics, 2017 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, 5.

  grounds of family reunification: Of the 1.13 million people granted lawful permanent resident status in the United States in 2017, 516,500 people were given that status based on being immediate relatives of U.S. citizens, while another 232,200 were given that status based on being sponsored by family members. U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics, 2017 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, 18.

  permits no more than 7 percent: No more than 7 percent of the visas may be issued to natives of any one independent country in a fiscal year; no more than 2 percent may be issued to any one dependency of any independent country. See www.uscis.gov/tools/glossary/country-limit. For a full discussion on current U.S. immigration policy, see William A. Kandel, “A Primer on U.S. Immigration Policy,” Congressional Research Service, June 22, 2018, fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R45020.pdf.