Black Box Thinking
Page 36
close crop planting, 110
closed loops, 13–14, 29–30, 58, 165
criminal justice system and, 66, 67
Iraq War decisions and, 93
justice system and, 85
randomized control trials (RCTs) and, 154–59
science and, 44
Cobley, Dan, 185
cognitive dissonance, 74–77, 86–107
ambiguity of failure and, 87
blame and, 231
confirmation bias and, 101–3
denial and, 74
disposition effect and, 101
economic forecasting and, 94–97
external versus internal deception and, 87, 88
health care and, 87–90, 103–7
initiation experiment and, 75–76, 86–87
Iraq War and, 90–94
justification and, 88–89, 90, 97–99
Lord’s capital punishment research project findings and, 76
reputation or influence of individual and, 98–100
responses to, 74
self-deception, 110–11
self-esteem and, 75–76
war, 278
wrongful convictions and, 79–83
collapsible stroller, 195, 199
Collins, Jim, 144, 204, 205, 206
communication, 28–29, 30, 39, 59
Communism, 108, 109, 110
complexity, 11
confirmation, 44
confirmation bias, 101–3, 280
connectivity, 199, 204
Connelly, Peter (Baby P case), 236–38, 239
Connelly, Tracey, 236
Conner, Aimee, 40
Convicting the Innocent and State Indemnity for Errors of Criminal Justice (Borchard), 67
Cook, Linda, 69
Corporate Creativity (Robinson & Stern), 179
counterfactual, 90n, 155, 157, 162, 165, 174, 175
court of criminal appeal, 67
cover-ups, 12–13, 88–89
Cowell, Andy, 182
Crandall, Bob, 179
creationism, 42–43
creative destruction, 130
Creativity, Inc. (Catmull), 207
creativity and innovation, 182–213
as act of synthesis, 199
brainstorming and, 196–97
connectivity and, 199, 204
as context-dependent, 201–2
discipline and, 205–6
dissent and criticize approach to, 197, 200–201, 207, 209
Dyson on creative process, 192–95, 196, 198, 202
education system and, 211–12
environments conducive to, 200–201
and multiples, 201–2
at Pixar, 207–10
as response to problem, 195–200
Crew Resource Management, 30, 39
Criminal Cases Review Commission, UK, 117
criminal justice system, 65–71, 114–21, 282
parole decisions and, 118–19
randomized control trials (RCTs), lack of, 158
reforms and, 115–17, 118–21
Scared Straight program and, 150–54, 159–67
trial by jury and, 118, 119
wrongful convictions (See wrongful convictions)
criticism, in creative process, 197, 207, 209
cults, 71–73, 74
culture, 11, 13
aviation and, 20, 25–27, 58
of blame (See blame)
health care and, 16, 49–50, 53, 54–55, 57, 58–59, 105–6
of openness, 229–31, 234–35
cumulative selection/adaptation, 128–29, 130, 292
Cuneus, Andreas, 201
cycling, 171–73, 178, 179
Daily Beast, 166
Danziger, Shai, 118–19
Darwin, Charles, 201
data, 37
Dattner, Ben, 233
Dawkins, Richard, 128–29
deception, 87, 88
decision making, 11
Deep Blue, 134
Dekker, Sidney, 13, 227, 239
deliberate practice, 47
denial
cognitive dissonance, as response to, 74
failure and, 18, 71
in prosecutorial responses to exonerating DNA evidence, 78–83
Diehl, Alan, 27, 28, 29, 30
Disch, Joanne, 10
discipline, 205–6
disclosure, 16, 25–26, 88–89
disposition effect, 101, 264
dissent and debate, in creative process, 197, 200–201, 207, 209
Divine, Jamie, 184
DNA evidence, 68–71, 77, 79–83, 84, 120
dogmatic tradition, 277, 278
Dorman, R. G., 211
Dotson, Gary, 69
drive-bys, 114
Dropbox, 145, 196
drugs. See medicine
Duckworth, Angela Lee, 262–63
Duflo, Esther, 173, 177, 178, 183
Dunbar, Kevin, 200
Dweck, Carol, 258–59, 264
Dyson, James, 192–95, 196, 197, 198, 199, 202–4, 205, 206, 211–13
on creative process, 192–95, 196, 198, 202
on discipline, 205, 206
on education, 211–12
education and, 267
on failure, 255
resilience and, 265
Dyson Foundation, 267
Eagleman, David, 200
Easterly, William, 174
Eastern Airlines 401, 27–28
Economic Laws of Scientific Research, The (Kealey), 132
economics, 94–97, 98, 129–31
Eddington, Arthur, 42
Edmondson, Amy, 26n, 37, 226–27, 231, 290–91
education, 211–12, 267–69
Egypt, 217–18, 222–24
Einstein, Albert, 42, 192, 201, 202
Eisel, Bernhard, 171
Eisner, Michael, 210
Eli Lilly, 268
employment policy, 187
Encyclopedia of Wars (Philips and Axelrod), 278
End of Poverty, The (Sachs), 174
Engelbrecht, Dawn, 63–64
entrepreneurship, 269–72, 286–87
ergonomics, 39
Error Positivity (Pe), 256–58
Error Related Negativity (ERN), 256–58
errors, 266, 287
ancient Greek view of, 278
attitude and, 58–59
aviation and, 25–27, 31
blame and, 226–31
health care and, 9–11, 16, 17–19, 49–52, 87–90
justice system and, 65–66
science and, 41–42
system for learning from, 51
training/professional improvement and, 47–48
Euclid, 133, 278
euphemisms, 16, 17
evasion, 17, 25
evolution, 128–29
excuses, 273
experience, 45–46
expertise, 45–46
external deception, 87, 88
eyewitnesses, 114–15
Fagan, Charles, 120
failure, 8, 11–13, 14–15
ambiguity of, and cognitive dissonance, 87
attitude and, 16, 58–59
avoidance and, 101
denial and, 18, 71, 88–89
education and, 267–69
entrepreneurship and, 269–72
fear and, 140, 270–71
in free market systems, 130–31, 284
grit and perseverance through, 262–65
harnessing of, in everyday life and business, 287–92
innovation/creativity and, 192–213
in Japanese culture, 270–71
justification and, 87
learning and, 19–20, 25–27, 31–33, 210–13, 256–61, 264–65, 266, 276
mindset and, 257–61, 264–65, 270–72, 273, 276, 287–88
pilot schemes and, 290–91
pre-mortems and, 291
redefinition of, 266–76
science and, 41–42, 44–45, 48, 266
self-handicapping and, 272–74
sports and, 255, 266
testing and, 128, 131
failure week, 267, 269
Fairbank, Rich, 185–86
Falk, Peter, 153
false confessions, 116
falsification, 44, 45
Farrington, Benjamin, 278–79
fear of failure, 140
Federal Reserve, 94–95, 96
feedback, 14, 46–47, 289–90
Ferguson, Niall, 95
Fernandez, Nicholas, 91
Festinger, Leon, 71–73, 74, 77, 82
finality doctrines, 84
Finckenauer, James, 160–64
Finding Nemo (film), 207, 209–10
Finkelstein, Sydney, 100
Fixed Mindset, 257–61, 270, 273, 276
focus, 28
Ford, Henry, 270
forensic science, 116
Formula One, 179–84
forward-looking accountability, 230, 235, 238
Foxworth, Delwin, 119–20
France, 10–11
free association, 198
free markets, 129–31, 284
Froome, Chris, 172
fundamental attribution error, 232
Furman, Cathie, 49
Furness General Hospital, 55
Galen of Pergamon, 13, 14, 41, 54, 154
Galileo, 41, 280, 281–82
Garret, Brandon, 82
Gawande, Atul, 56–77
Genentech, 204–5
genetics, 108–10
Germanwings plane crash, 9
Gillam, Michael, 56
Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, 270, 271
Glover, Danny, 159, 166
god complex, 282
Goldacre, Ben, 157
Golder, Peter N., 205
Google, 184–85, 199
Gosse, Philip Henry, 42–43
Graedon, Joe, 10
Grant, Jim, 96
Grayling, Chris, 284
Great by Choice (Collins and Hansen), 144, 204
Great Leap Forward, 110
Greenstone, Gerry, 13–14
grit, 262–65
Gross, Samuel R., 70
Grossi, Dennis, 27
Growth Mindset, 257–61, 264–65, 272
guided missile approach of success, 146
Guildford Four, 117
Gutenberg, Johannes, 199
hair analysis, 116
Halpern, David, 158–59, 291
Hamilton, Lewis, 181, 183, 184
Hanbury, Heather, 267–68, 269
Hansen, Morten, 204
Harford, Tim, 129, 175, 176
Harmer, Michael, 59
Harrah’s Casino Group, 186
health care, 4–7, 9–11, 14, 282, 290. See also medicine
adoption rate and, 56–57
cognitive dissonance and, 87–90, 103–7
complexity and, 137
culture of, 16, 49–50, 53, 54–55, 57, 58–59, 105–6
error and, 16–19, 31–32, 49–52, 87–90
nurse unit administration, and blame, 226–27, 230–31
scientific approach to learning from failure and, 49–52
Hearst Foundation, 55–56
Henderson, Mark, 157
heroism, 39, 40
Hidden, Anthony, 232n
hierarchy, 25, 28–29, 30, 49–50, 103–7
Hilbert, David, 202
Hilfiker, David, 17, 106
hindsight bias, 232n
HIV, 147–49
Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 97
House of Commons Public Administration Select Committee, 55
Houston, Drew, 138, 142–43, 145
Hume, David, 44
Hungry Ghosts, Mao’s Secret Famine (Becker), 110
iatrogenic injury, 17
illusion of design, 129
incentive, 53–54
Incognito: The Secret Lives of Brains (Eagleman), 200
Industrial Revolution, 132–33
inferiority complex, 43–44
inflation, 95–96
initiation experiment, 75–76, 86–87
Innocence Project, 69, 77–78, 81, 84, 85
reforms and, 115, 116–17
innovation. See creativity and innovation
Inquisition, 281–82
Intel, 205–6
internal deception, 87, 88
International Air Transport Association, 9
International Civil Aviation Organization, 224–25
interrogation, 116
investigation, 25–26, 29–31
error and, 220–21
health care and, 55
objectives of, 221
Iraq War, 73–74, 90–94
Islamic State, 92
Israel, 217–19, 224
Ivanovsky, Dmitry, 109
Japan
fear of failure and lack of entrepreneurship in, 270–71
math, attitudes toward, 271–72
Jeffreys, Alec, 68, 69
Jobs, Steve, 143–44, 199
Johnson, Ron, 144
Johnson, Steven, 200, 201, 202
Jones, Edward, 273–74
Jones, Steve, 125, 126
Jordan, Michael, 255, 265
Journal of Patient Safety, 9
judges, 118–19
just culture, 229–30
Just Culture (Dekker), 239
justice system. See criminal justice system
Kahneman, Daniel, 47n, 135, 136, 292
Kaplan, Gary S., 48–49, 50, 53, 59
Kasparov, Garry, 134
Kauffman Foundation, 270
Kealey, Terence, 132
Keech, Marian, 71–72, 74
Kepler, Johannes, 281
Klarman, Seth, 95
Klein, Gary, 291–92
Kleist, Ewald Georg von, 201
Kobayashi, Takeru, 187–88
Koltsoz, Nikolai, 109
Korschinsky, S., 201
Krumboltz, John, 140, 141
Kuhn, Thomas, 42n
Lamarckism, 108, 109, 111n
Lancaster, Captain James, 56
Lane, David, 145, 146
language, 17, 28–29, 88–89
Lanir, Zvi, 221
lean start-ups, 141–45
Leape, Lucian, 9
Leibniz, Gottfried, 201
Leversha, Brian, 240, 242, 243, 244, 245, 246, 247–48
Leversha, Carol, 242, 243
Lexington Airport (Kentucky), 26
liberalism, 285
Libyan Arab Airlines Flight 114, 217–19, 221–25
Lind, James, 14n
linear model, of technological change, 131–33
line-ups, 115–16
litigation, 16, 32
Little Bets (Sims), 139
Lorentz, Hendrik, 202
Lowe, Paddy, 179–80, 183, 184
Luffingham, Tim, 240, 241, 242, 243, 244, 246
Lysenko, Trofim, 108–9, 110
Maclaren, Owen, 195
Magee, Brian, 277, 278, 288
Malaysia A
irlines Flight 370, 9
Malpass, David, 96
Manzi, Jim, 186, 187
Maoism, 110
Mao Zedong, 110
marginal gains, 178–91
corporate world examples of, 184–86
cycling and, 173, 178, 179
defined, 179
limitations of, 189–90
Mercedes Formula One racing team and, 179–84
randomized control trials (RCTs) and, 175, 176–77
speed-eating and, 188
Marshall, Larry, 82
Martin, Andrew, 81
Martin, Dorothy. See Keech, Marian
Marxism, 108, 110
masking tape, 195
mathematics/mathematicians, 125–26, 271–72
World War II, role in, 35–37
Mayer, Marissa, 185
McAlesher, Robert J., 163
McBroom, Malburn, 21, 22, 23–25, 27, 28, 29, 40
McClinton, Mary, 49–50
McGrath, Michael, 78–79
McRaney, David, 35
Mechnikov, Ilya, 109
media, and blame, 234–35
Baby P case and, 236–38
Medical Errors and Medical Narcissim (Banja), 88
medicine, 32. See also health care
history of, 13–14
randomized control trials (RCTs) and, 157–58
Meese, Edwin, 68
memory, 113–14, 117
Mendel, Gregor, 108
Mendenhall, Forrest, 21, 23, 25, 27, 29
Menezes, Jean Charles de, 114
Menger, Karl, 34
Mercedes, 179–84
“A Method of Estimating Plane Vulnerability Based on Damage of Survivors” (Wald), 37
Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust, 54–55
Mika, Michele, 165
Mill, John Stuart, 285
Mills, Judson, 75
mindset, 257–61, 264–65, 270–72, 273, 276, 279, 287–88
minimum viable product (MVP), 141–42, 286
miscarriages of justice. See wrongful convictions
Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me) (Aronson and Tavris), 75, 93
mitigated language, 28–29
Monsters, Inc. (film), 207–8
Morris, Nigel, 185–86
Morrish, Scott, 55
Moser, Jason, 256–58
Mullis, Kary, 68
mutation, 128
narrative fallacy, 135–38, 147–49, 283
NASA, 30
National Health Service (NHS), 54–55
National Transportation Safety Board, 27
natural selection, 128
nature, 128
Nazism, 33, 37
Nelson, Bruce, 69
Nemeth, Charles, 196, 197, 198, 285n
Netflix, 190
Neufeld, Peter, 77, 78–79, 81
Newcomen, Thomas, 132
New England Journal of Medicine, 56
Newton, Sir Isaac, 192, 196, 201
New York Times, 95, 164
NHS Litigation Authority, 32
Nicola, George, 153, 162n, 163