The Technology Trap
Page 56
Google Translate, 304
Goolsbee, Austan, 340
Gordon, Robert, 198, 202, 220, 272, 342
government regulations, 49, 137
Great Depression, 13, 143, 170, 211, 272
Great Divergence, 24; absence of economic revolution, 95; beginnings of industrialization, 94; factory system, evolution of (see factory system); Industrial Revolution (see Industrial Revolution); per capita income growth, 94; rise of the machines, 93; textile industry, Industrial Revolution begun in, 95
Great Escape, 8
“great exception” in American political history, 200
Great Migration, 205
Great Recession, 244, 284, 339, 343
Green, William, 174
Greif, Avner, 88, 92, 344
growth, culture of, 77
Gutenberg, Johannes, 47
Habsburg Empire, 85
Hammer, Michael, 326
Hansen, Alvin, 179, 342
Hargreaves, James, 102–3
Harlem, 1
Harper, Kyle, 37
Hawking, Stephen, 36
hazardous jobs, end of, 195, 198
health conditions, during Industrial Revolution, 114–15
Heaton, Herbert, 37
Heckman, James, 351
Heilbroner, Robert, 335
Hellenism, technological creativity of, 39
Henderson, Rebecca, 305, 331
Hero of Alexandria, 39
high school graduates, employment opportunities for, 237
high school movement (1910–40), 214
Himmelfarb, Gertrude, 268
Hindenburg disaster, 110
hinterland, cheap labor and housing of, 261
history deniers, 23
Hitler, Adolf, 12
Hobbes, Thomas, 8, 46
Hobsbawm, Eric, 7
Hoover, Herbert, 211
horseless age, 164
horse technology, 43, 163
Hounshell, David, 148, 150
household revolution, 155–56
housing, zoning and, 361–62
housing bubble, 282
human capital accumulation, indicators of, 133–34
Humphries, Jane, 103, 121
Hurst, Erik, 338
Huskisson, William, 109–10
Hyperloop, 363
IBM, 231
Ibsen, Henrik, 17
Ice Age, 64, 76
identity politics, 278
“idiocy of rural life,” 62–64
income(s): disparities of, 61; reshuffling of, 287
income tax (Britain), introduction of, 133
incubators, nursery cities serving as, 261
industrial bourgeoisie, 267
industrial capitalism, rise of, 218
industrial centers, rise of, 115
industrial espionage, 6
industrialization, first episode of, 16
industrial organization, fundamental principle of, 229
Industrial Revolution, 68, 70; alcoholism, 123; in Britain, 329; Britain’s edge during, 19; British income tax, introduction of, 133; capital share of income, 131–32; child labor, 123, 134; children as robots of, 8–9; classic years of, 113; closing decades of, 138, 266; conditions of England question, 116–25; consumer revolution preceding, 68; cotton yarn manufacturing at dawn of, 100–101; divergence between output and wages, 131; domestic system, description of, 118; economic consequences of, 17; Engels’ pause, 131–37; engine of, 73; Englishmen left off worse by, 364; factories existing before, 94; gig mills, 128; golden age of industry, 118; government regulation, 137; hand-loom weaver, as tragic hero of Industrial Revolution, 121; health conditions, 114–15; human capital accumulation, indicators of, 133–34; labor income share captured, 114; industrial centers, rise of, 115; jobs created by, 16; key drivers of, 342; labor unions, bargaining power of, 137; Lancashire riots, 125, 127; leading figures of, 70; literacy rates, 134; Luddites, 125–31; machinery question, concerns over, 116; machinery riots, 127, 130; macroeconomic impact of, 94; material living conditions, decline of, 114, 120–21; mobility of workers, 122; obsolescence of worker skills, 124; origins of, 6, 80–91; political situation of workers, 129; reason for beginnings in Britain, 75; recipients of the gains of, 113; standard of living issue, 121; steam power, impact of on aggregate growth, 136; symbolic beginning of, 97; tax revenue, 133; technical change during closing decades, 139; technological progress, attitudes toward, 112; trajectory of inequality in Britain during, 217; true beginnings of, 100; unemployment, 113, 117, 125; victims of, 9; Victorian Age, machinery critics of, 119; wave of gadgets, 330; working poor, 113
inequality: age of, beginnings of, 62; Neolithic rise in, 63
inflation, 294
information technology, first revolution in, 47
inner-city ghettos, problems in, 258
innovation, 257; nurseries for, 261
innovation gap, 352
in-person service jobs, 235
inspiration without perspiration, 51–59
installment credit, 159, 167
institutional divergence (colonial Europe), 81
Intel, 359
interchangeable parts: concept of, 149; pioneering of, 74
International Labour Organization (ILO), 181
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 245
international trade, rise of, 67, 69, 99
Internet of things, 22
internet traffic: spread of, 328; worldwide, 303
inventions: agriculture, 54, 62; assembly line, 141, 365; barometer, 52, 59; bicycle, 165; camel saddle, 77; carding machine, 102; of classical times, 39; coke smelting, 108; electric starter, 166; iron, 36; light bulb, 2; mariner’s compass, 50; movable-type printing press, 47; nailed horseshoe, 43; navigable submarine, 52; personal computer (PC), 231; power loom, 105; spinning jenny, 102; steam digester, 55; steam engine, 52, 76; stirrup, 43; stocking-frame knitting machine, 54, 76; submarine, 73; telescope, 59; transistor, 231; typewriter, 161–62; washing machine, 27; water frame, 102; waterwheel, 38; wheel, 35
Iron Age, 35
iron laws of economics, 206
James I of England, King, 52
Japan, ascent of, 289
JD. com, 313
Jeffersonian individualism, 200
Jenkinson, Robert, 2nd Earl of Liverpool, 130, 289
Jerome, Harry, 13, 154, 198, 328
job demand, creation of, 262
Johnson, Lyndon, 184
Joyce, James, 16
Kaldor, Nicholas, 5, 205
Kasparov, Garry, 301
Katz, Lawrence, 135, 213, 245, 349
Kay-Shuttleworth, James, 117, 229
Kennedy, John F., 183
Kettering, Charles, 166
Keynes, John Maynard, 332, 334
King, Gregory, 68
knowledge work, 235, 259
Komlos, John, 115
Korea, ascent of, 289
Korean War, 180
Krugman, Paul, 12
Kuznets, Simon, 5, 206–7
Kuznets curve, 207, 212
labor, division of, 228
labor multiplier, 347
Labor Party, rise of, 268
labor productivity, gap between worker compensation and, 244
labor unions, 212; bargaining power of, 201, 277; legalization in Britain, 190
laissez-faire regime, 25, 267
lamplighters, 1–2
Lancashire riots of 1779, 90
landed aristocracy, 83
Landes, David, 9, 112, 118, 134, 343
Land-Grant College Act of 1862, 364
Latin Church, oppression of science by, 79
laundress, vanishing of, 27, 160
Lee, William, 10, 54
Lefebvre des Noëttes, Richard, 43
Leonardo da Vinci, 38, 51, 73
Leontief, Wassily, 20, 338, 343
Levy, Frank, 237, 302, 323
liberal democracy, components of, 267
Lindert, Peter, 61, 68, 114, 207, 211, 2
69, 271
literacy, demand for, 76
Liverpool-Manchester Railway, 109
lobbying, corporate spending on, 275
Locke, John, 83
Lombe, John, 52, 99–100
Lombe, Thomas, 6, 100
London Steam Carriage, 109
longshoremen, vanishing of, 172
Louis XIV of France, King, 84
Luddites, 9, 18, 125–31, 341; imprisoned, 20; new, 286–92; riots, 89, 92; uprisings, 265
machinery question, 116, 174–88; adjustment problems, 177; automation, employment effects of, 180; computers, automation anxiety concerning, 183; elevator operators, 181–82; musicians, displaced, 177–78
machinery riots, 9, 265, 289; absence of (America), 190; Britain, 90
Maddison, Angus, 66
Magellan, Ferdinand, 51, 67
majority-rule voting system, 270
Malthus, Thomas Robert, 4, 64, 73, 316, 345
Malthusian logic, 345
Malthusian trap, escape of, 65
Manhattan Project, 74
Manpower Training and Development Act (MDTA), 353
Mantoux, Paul, 97, 101, 126
Manufacture des Gobelins, 84
Manufacture Royale de Glaces de Miroirs, 84
manufacturing: blue-collar jobs, disappearance of, 251, 254; American system of manufacturing, pioneers of, 149; factory electrification, 151–55; interchangeable parts, concept of, 149
Margo, Robert, 135, 145
markets, integration of, 86
Marx, Karl, 26, 47, 98, 239, 364
Massey, Douglas, 256
Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), 354
mass production, 147–73; American system of manufacturing, pioneers of, 149; containerization, 171–72; direct drive, 153; factory electrification, 151–55; horseless age, 164; household revolution, 156; industries, 18; installment credit, 159, 167; interchangeable parts, concept of, 149; Model T, 167; unit drive, 153
Maurice of Nassau, Prince of Orange, 59
Maybach, Wilhelm, 166
McAfee, Andrew, 303, 339
McCloskey, Deirdre, 70
McCormick, Cyrus, 149, 168
McLean, Malcom, 171
mechanics, Galileo’s theory of, 53
mechanization, age of automation vs. age of, 227
median voter theories, 270
medieval Christianity, 78
mercantilism, flawed doctrine of, 83
Mesopotamia, 35
metals, discovery and exploitation of, 35
Michigan Antitrust Reform Act of 1985, 359
Microsoft, 306
Middle Ages: agricultural technology in, 42; feudal order of, 57; onset of, 41; technical advances of, 50; traditional crafts of, 68
middle class, descent of, 223–25; artificial intelligence, 228; automation, adverse consequences of, 240; cognitive divide, 238–43; computer-controlled machines, jobs eliminated by, 228; computers, 228–38; corporate profits, 244; division of labor between human and machine, 228; earnings gap, 230; Engels’ pause, return of, 243–48; golden postwar years, 239; Great Recession, 244; high school graduates, employment opportunities for, 237; industrial organization, fundamental principle of, 229; in-person service jobs, 235; knowledge workers, 235; labor productivity, gap between worker compensation and, 244; mechanization, age of automation vs. age of, 227; multipurpose robots, 242; rule-based logic, 228; Second Industrial Revolution, elimination of jobs created for machine operators during, 228; “symbolic analysts,” 235
middle class, triumph of, 218–222; agriculture, mechanization of, 189; automotive industry, 202; baby boom, 221; blue-collar Americans, unprecedented wages of, 220; child labor, as opportunity cost to education, 214; collective bargaining, 192; corporate giants, 208; corporate paternalism, 200; education and technology, race between, 216; end of drudgery, 193–98; Engels’ pause, 219; factory electrification, 190, 195; farming jobs, decline of, 197, 203; Great Depression, 211; “great exception” in American political history, 200; Great Migration, 205; hazardous jobs, end of, 195, 198; high school movement (1910–40), 214; Jeffersonian individualism, 200; Kuznets curve, 207, 212; labor unions, 201, 212; leveling of American wages, 211; machinery riots, absence of, 190; middle class, emergence of, 192, 292; national minimum wage, introduction of, 211; new consumer goods, Americans’ growing appetite for, 203; New Deal, 200, 212; public schooling, 214; Second Industrial Revolution, 209, 217; skill-biased technological change, 213; tractor use, expansion of, 196; urban-rural wage gap, 209; Wall Street, depression suffered by, 211; welfare capitalism, 198, 200; welfare state, rise of, 221; white-collar employment, 197, 218
Middle East, 77
Milanovic, Branko, 217, 245
mining, 194, 197
Minoan civilization, 34
mobile robotics, 342
mobility, demands for, 348
mobility vouchers, 360
Model T, 167
modern medicine, rise of, 22
Mokyr, Joel, 19, 52, 76–77, 79
Moore’s Law, 107, 301, 304
Moravec’s paradox, 236
Moretti, Enrico, 258, 262–63, 360
Morgan, J. P., 208
Morrill Act, 364
mortality gap, 255
mortality rate, 65
mother of invention, 73
motion-picture machine operator, 178
multipurpose robots, 242, 261, 327
Mumford, Lewis, 46
Municipal Corporations Act of 1835, 86
Murnane, Richard, 237, 302
Murray, Charles, 252–53, 281
Musk, Elon, 313
Mutiny Act, 82
Napoléon Bonaparte, 9
Napoleonic War, 130
National Electric Light Association (NELA), 159
National Industrial Recovery Acts of 1933 and 1935, 200
National Labor Relations (“Wagner”) Act of 1935, 200
national minimum wage, introduction of, 211
National Recovery Administration, 178
nation states, rise of, 57
Nazi Labor front, 12
necessity, technological advances emerging from, 76
Neolithic communities, 34
Neolithic revolution, 33, 61
Neural Machine Translation (NMT), 304
neural networks, 303, 305, 314
Newcomen, Thomas, 53, 106, 317
New Deal, 200, 212, 272, 325
Newton, Isaac, 54
New World, discovery of, 19, 80
Nicholas I of Russia, Emperor, 85
Nobel Prize in Economics, 2, 4, 14, 20
Nordhaus, William, 2, 230, 297
Norman Conquest, 44
North, Douglass C., 79
North Africa, 77
nursery cities, 261
Nye, David, 155
Obama, Barack, 238, 277, 290, 322
occupational licensing, 358
occupational statistics, 219
OECD, 243, 321
Offenbach, Jacques, 53
Ogilvie, Sheilagh, 56–57
Old Poor Law, 344
OpenAI, 313
opportunity gap, societal costs of, 351
Osborne, Michael, 315
Otto, Nikolaus, 166
Ottoman Empire, 17, 66
overproduction, crisis of, 266
Owenism, 137
ownership, concept of, 34
Papin, Denis, 52, 86
Pareto improvement, 13
Paris Universal Exposition of 1867, 147
Park Avenue, 1
Paul, Lewis, 101
Pax Romana, 41
Pearl Harbor, attack on, 180
Pennsylvania Railroad, 208
Percy, Hiram, 165
personal computer (PC), 231
Peter the Great, Tsar, 58
Piketty, Thomas, 210, 217, 277, 361
“pink-collar” workforce, 241
plant downsizings, 255
Pliny the Elder, 36, 40
Polanyi�
��s paradox, 234, 304
polarization, politics of, 272–77; American dream, 280; Blue Wall, 284; civil rights legislation, 280; clientelism, 271; democracy and the middle class, 265–69; “disciplined self” identity, 279; economic inequality, 274, 277; Engels’ pause, 266, 287; feudal order, political participation in, 265; globalization, automation, and populism, 277–85; housing bubble, 282; identity politics, 278; inflation, 294; Labor Party, rise of, 268; labor unions, bargaining power of, 277; laissez-faire regime, 267; legitimacy of democracy, undermining of, 274; liberal democracy, components of, 267; lobbying, corporate spending on, 275; Luddite uprisings, 265; machinery riots, 265, 289; majority-rule voting system, 270; median voter theories, 270; middle class, rise of, 292; New Deal, 272; new Luddites, 286–92; political elites, 288; populist backlash, 293; Progressive Era, reform agenda of, 271; redistributive taxing and spending, 271; Rust Belt, 279, 283, 291; social class, Marx’s theory of, 265; socialism in America, 272; social media, 285; strikes, protection of car companies from, 276; technology types, distinguishing between, 287; unemployment, American social expenditure on, 274; United Auto Workers union, 276; universal white male suffrage, 270; vulnerability to populist revolutions, 264; welfare state, rise of, 272; welfare system, tax-financed, 267; working class, 278, 279
Polhem, Christopher, 149
political elites, 288
poor laws, 344
Pope, Albert A., 165
population curse, 64–67
populism, rise of, 277–85, 365
populist backlash, 293
populist renaissance, 21
populist revolutions, vulnerability to, 264
Port Clinton, Ohio, 250–51
Portuguese caravel ship, 51
power loom, arrival of, 15
prefabrication, 311
Price, Derek, 39
printing press, Gutenberg’s, 17
Procter and Gamble, 199
productivity, populations and, 64
Progressive Era, reform agenda of, 271
property rights: in American culture, 200; concept of, 62, 91; importance of, 20; in preindustrial societies, 33
Protestant Huguenots, 80
Protestant movement, 46
“proto-industrialization,” 68
prototypes: adoption of, 323; Amazon Go store, 312; developed, 261; imperfect, 298, 314; inventions turned into, 73
public clocks, 45
public infrastructure projects, 363
public schooling, 214
purchasing power, 191
Putnam, Robert, 250–51, 272, 276
railroads: arrival of, 108; declining importance of, 170; as enabling technology for revolutions, 85; network, expansion in Britain, 110; revenues (America), 208
Ramey, Valerie, 159, 332
redistributive taxing and spending, 271